NEW YORK — December 16, 2025 (Premarket, around 5:00 a.m. ET) — Nasdaq is heading into Tuesday’s session on shaky footing, with Nasdaq-100 futures lower in early trading as investors brace for a rare, shutdown-delayed double dose of U.S. labor-market data, fresh retail sales figures, and flash PMI readings that could reshape expectations for growth, inflation, and the path of interest rates into 2026. [1]
The cautious premarket tone follows a downbeat start to the final full trading week of 2025, with the market still wrestling with two big questions: (1) is the AI trade losing leadership? and (2) will the next wave of economic data validate—or challenge—the soft-landing narrative? [2]
Nasdaq premarket snapshot: What futures are signaling now
In overnight trading, the tech-heavy complex is under pressure:
- Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 0.8%–1.0% in early hours, according to multiple market updates. [3]
- More specifically, one premarket read showed Nasdaq-100 futures down 261 points (about 1.0%) in the early morning window, while broader index futures also dipped. [4]
- Another early update pegged Nasdaq 100 futures down ~0.75% around 3:14 a.m. ET. [5]
Overnight markets are also reflecting a “risk-off” undertone: bitcoin hovered around the mid-$86,000 area, while oil and gold were softer as traders balanced macro uncertainty with geopolitics. [6]
Important note for readers: premarket futures can move quickly ahead of major data releases—especially on a morning like today—so the direction at 5:00 a.m. ET is best read as “positioning,” not destiny. [7]
What happened last session: Nasdaq ended Monday lower
Tuesday’s setup is heavily influenced by Monday’s tone. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59% to 23,057.41, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.16 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.09%, as investors leaned cautious ahead of this week’s heavyweight data calendar and ongoing Fed leadership speculation. [8]
Market coverage also noted that Monday’s pullback marked a sharper risk-off move than the market has seen recently, as positioning tightened before the data hits. [9]
The big story for Nasdaq: A market “rethinking” the AI trade
Nasdaq’s leadership in 2024–2025 has been closely tied to mega-cap technology and AI-adjacent names. But into mid-December, the market is increasingly sensitive to earnings quality, capex intensity, and the durability of AI-driven growth narratives.
Several premarket and prior-session writeups point to lingering concerns that the AI boom may be entering a more selective phase, especially after recent results and guidance from high-profile AI-exposed companies disappointed some investors. [10]
The takeaway for today: Nasdaq may trade less like a broad index and more like a “duration asset”—highly responsive to yields, inflation expectations, and any data surprise that shifts the market’s rate-cut timeline. That’s why macro data (not just earnings headlines) is front and center this morning. [11]
Today’s main catalyst: the delayed U.S. jobs report (and why it matters more than usual)
Today’s calendar is unusual because the U.S. experienced a 43-day federal government shutdown, disrupting normal economic releases and creating gaps in key labor statistics. [12]
What’s expected in the jobs data
Reuters reporting indicates economists broadly expect:
- Nonfarm payrolls: about +50,000 jobs in November (with October likely weaker due to federal government job losses tied to cost-cutting and buyouts). [13]
- Unemployment rate: expected around 4.4% for November—but critically, there will be no official unemployment rate for October because household survey data were not collected during the shutdown and won’t be recreated retroactively. [14]
That missing October household survey print is a big deal: it means markets are trying to infer trend changes from partial information, which can amplify volatility.
What time is the jobs report released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows the Employment Situation for November 2025 is scheduled for release Tuesday, December 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET, following the shutdown-related rescheduling. [15]
Also on deck today: retail sales and flash PMIs
In addition to jobs, traders are watching consumer demand and business activity indicators that can quickly feed into earnings expectations for 2026—especially for Nasdaq’s growth-heavy mix.
Retail sales (rescheduled)
The U.S. Census Bureau retail release schedule indicates October retail sales releases were rescheduled for December 16, 2025 due to earlier delays. [16]
Market calendars show key retail sales items are typically posted in the 8:30 a.m. ET window, aligning with the morning data cluster. [17]
S&P Global flash PMIs
Flash PMI readings are also due, with economic calendars listing S&P Global U.S. flash PMI releases around 9:45 a.m. ET. [18]
Why does this matter for Nasdaq? Because PMI surprises can quickly change expectations for corporate revenue momentum—especially for software, semiconductors, and IT services that dominate major Nasdaq indices.
Rates backdrop: the Fed already cut—now markets need confirmation
The market’s sensitivity to this week’s data is heightened by the Federal Reserve’s latest move: Reuters reporting notes the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last week to a 3.5%–3.75% range, while still emphasizing uncertainty about labor and inflation trends going forward. [19]
That leaves Nasdaq in a familiar tug-of-war:
- Softer data can revive hopes for additional easing (often supportive for long-duration growth stocks).
- Hotter data can lift yields and compress valuations (often a headwind for tech-heavy indexes). [20]
As one global markets writeup put it, the “real risk” for growth assets is a hawkish surprise via stronger inflation or jobs—because “long-duration” trades tend to get hit first when yields jump. [21]
A separate Nasdaq headline: the exchange pushes toward 23-hour weekday trading
While most “Nasdaq today” coverage focuses on the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100, the Nasdaq exchange itself (Nasdaq, Inc.) is also in the headlines.
A major market update noted that Nasdaq is seeking regulatory approval to extend trading hours on its stock venues to 23 hours during weekdays, adding a new late-night session and moving the U.S. market structure closer to near round-the-clock access. [22]
This story matters because it speaks to:
- Surging global participation in U.S. equities
- The infrastructure and liquidity questions that come with longer trading windows
- Potential shifts in volatility patterns (more “off-hours” price discovery) [23]
Even if it doesn’t move the Nasdaq-100 by itself today, it’s a notable structural theme that could increasingly shape how investors experience “premarket” and “after-hours” trading in the years ahead.
What to watch in Nasdaq after the open: a practical checklist
Here are the catalysts most likely to drive Nasdaq’s direction today:
- 8:30 a.m. ET — Jobs report (rescheduled Employment Situation)
Focus: payroll trend, wage growth signals, and any guidance markets can infer from the partial October update. [24] - 8:30 a.m. ET — Retail sales (rescheduled October release)
Focus: whether consumer demand is cooling enough to support disinflation without tipping into recession fears. [25] - 9:45 a.m. ET — Flash PMIs
Focus: momentum in services and manufacturing, which can influence earnings expectations and sector rotation. [26] - Rates, dollar, and “AI leadership” intraday
Nasdaq’s biggest moves often coincide with sharp swings in yields and whether investors are buying or selling mega-cap tech as a group. [27]
Nasdaq outlook for today: three scenarios investors are gaming out
Because today’s economic releases are unusually important (and unusually messy due to shutdown distortions), markets are likely to trade in scenarios:
Scenario 1: “Goldilocks” data supports Nasdaq stabilization
If payroll growth and wages are soft enough to keep rate cuts on the table—but not so weak that recession fears spike—Nasdaq could attempt a rebound after Monday’s decline. [28]
Scenario 2: Hotter-than-expected jobs or inflation signals hit tech first
If the labor market looks firmer than expected, yields can rise and weigh on the valuation-heavy parts of Nasdaq. That’s especially relevant while investors are already questioning where market leadership comes from beyond AI. [29]
Scenario 3: A downside shock triggers broader risk-off (even if rate cuts become more likely)
If the data is too weak, the market can pivot from “rate cuts are good” to “growth is breaking.” In that case, Nasdaq may not get the usual relief rally, and risk appetite could deteriorate across equities, crypto, and cyclical sectors. [30]
Bottom line: Nasdaq enters Tuesday with macro risk in the driver’s seat
As of the early premarket window on December 16, 2025, Nasdaq is set up for a volatile day: futures point lower, AI leadership remains under scrutiny, and a cluster of shutdown-delayed U.S. data releases—especially the rescheduled jobs report—could quickly shift the market’s rate narrative. [31]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.bls.gov, 16. www.census.gov, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.bls.gov, 25. www.census.gov, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investing.com
