NatWest Group Plc Stock (NWG): Latest News, Forecasts and Analyst Views on 17 December 2025

NatWest Group Plc shares are heading into the final stretch of 2025 with three storylines dominating investor attention: an accelerated push into “agentic AI” for retail customers, continued share buybacks that underline the bank’s capital-return strategy, and a tighter band of analyst price targets after a strong 2025 rally. ^[1]

Below is a round-up of the most relevant, currently circulating news and analysis as of 17 December 2025, plus what the latest forecasts imply for NatWest’s stock into 2026.

What’s driving NatWest shares today

1) NatWest joins UK “agentic AI” race — and regulators are watching closely

Reuters reported today that British banks, including NatWest, are preparing retail-customer trials of “agentic AI” systems—AI that can plan and execute tasks autonomously (rather than simply generating text). The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) told Reuters it is prioritising consumer protection and intends to apply existing accountability frameworks (including the senior managers regime and the Consumer Duty) rather than rushing out new bespoke rules. ^[2]

NatWest told Reuters it is testing agentic AI to accelerate complaints handling by investigating and analysing cases, with an announcement expected in early 2026. The FCA and external experts also flagged a more market-wide concern: if many AI agents act on similar signals at speed, correlated behaviour could amplify stress dynamics (for example, rapid deposit movement). ^[3]

Why it matters for the stock: Investors generally like “efficiency stories” in banking—automation that lowers operating costs or improves customer experience. But the regulatory bar is high in retail banking, and any AI rollout that touches advice-like activity or customer outcomes can create fresh governance and conduct risk. ^[4]

2) Buybacks continue: NatWest keeps shrinking the share count

NatWest has kept up the drumbeat of daily buyback disclosures.

On 16 December 2025, the bank reported buying 845,063 ordinary shares on the LSE at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of 631.16p (range 629.00p–632.80p) and said it intends to cancel the repurchased shares. ^[5]
On 15 December 2025, an associated filing showed a purchase of 845,216 shares at a VWAP of 625.66p (range 616.00p–630.40p), also intended for cancellation. ^[6]

These purchases were described as part of the company’s existing buyback programme, with execution via Merrill Lynch International / BofA and ongoing updates on treasury shares and shares in issue. ^[7]

Why it matters for the stock: In a mature UK banking market, buybacks are one of the clearest “shareholder yield” signals. They can support earnings-per-share even if revenue growth slows—though they also raise the stakes on capital generation staying strong across the cycle. ^[8]

NatWest stock forecast: where analysts stand now

Consensus remains positive, but the easy re-rating phase may be fading.

Investing.com’s consensus snapshot (based on the past three months of analyst inputs) shows:

Overall consensus:Buy
Ratings mix:11 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell
Average 12-month target:663.25p, implying roughly +3.83% upside from the referenced current price level on that page
Target range:550p (low) to 765p (high) ^[9]

Recent broker moves and targets in the mix

Investing.com’s table of recent broker targets includes (among others):

Goldman Sachs: “Hold/Neutral” with a target around £6.65 (i.e., 665p) following a downgrade dated 4 December 2025 ^[10]
Citi: “Buy” with £7.65 (765p) shown as maintained (dated 1 December 2025) ^[11]
Morgan Stanley: “Hold” with £7.20 (720p) maintained (dated 24 November 2025) ^[12]
Deutsche Bank: “Buy” with £6.60 (660p) maintained (dated 21 November 2025) ^[13]
Jefferies: “Buy” with £6.30 (630p) maintained (dated 28 October 2025) ^[14]

Goldman’s downgrade rationale (as reported by Investing.com) was essentially: NatWest delivered a strong run, saw meaningful earnings revisions and a valuation re-rating, and now looks more “fairly valued” after trading near 52-week highs—though Goldman still described the bank as profitable and capital generative in its outlook framing. ^[15]

The fundamental backdrop: what 2025 told investors about NatWest

Q3 strength and upgraded profitability guidance

NatWest’s third-quarter 2025 report (24 October) was a major turning point for sentiment. Reuters reported:

Pretax operating profit:£2.2 billion for July–September, up from £1.7 billion a year earlier and above the £1.8 billion analyst expectation cited by Reuters
Return on tangible equity guidance for 2025: raised to above 18% (from “above 16.5%”)
Reuters also noted NatWest avoided the kind of heavy charges tied to the UK motor finance mis-selling issue that weighed on some rivals, and that the shares hit their highest level since December 2008 in the wake of the update. ^[16]

NatWest also highlighted wealth momentum in that Reuters report, including assets under management/administration rising (Reuters cited £56 billion, up 8.1%). ^[17]

From state-backed to fully private — and then the rally accelerated

NatWest’s “reprivatisation” story remains part of the stock narrative. Reuters reported that on 30 May 2025, the UK government sold its remaining less than 1% stake, ending a long post-crisis chapter that began with a £45 billion rescue during the 2008 financial crisis. Reuters also reported the government expected an aggregate loss of around £10.5 billion when tallying proceeds, dividends, fees and other income. ^[18]

By late 2025, UK bank shares broadly had been strong, and NatWest participated in that rerating. City AM reported NatWest was up about 56% in 2025 at the time of its December analysis, with analysts quoted describing valuations as “elevated, but not stretched,” while warning that upside may be more modest after such a strong run. ^[19]

Sector forces that still matter for NWG

Capital rules and stress tests: supportive for capital return narratives

The UK regulatory backdrop has been mildly supportive for bank equity sentiment in recent weeks.

Reuters reported that on 2 December 2025 the Bank of England said Tier 1 capital requirements could be reduced (a benchmark down to 13% from 14%), and that major banks—including NatWest—passed stress tests designed around severe shocks. Reuters noted bank shares (including NatWest) rose on the day of the capital update. ^[20]

Investor takeaway: Lower “required” capital levels (all else equal) can increase the room for buybacks/dividends—but regulators and politicians may also pressure banks to lend more rather than simply return capital. Reuters explicitly reported the BoE governor urging banks to use freed-up funds to boost lending. ^[21]

Political risk: taxes didn’t rise — but the topic isn’t gone

UK banks have had to navigate political “headline risk.” Reuters reported that UK bank shares rallied on 26 November 2025 after the Labour budget appeared to avoid new targeted taxes on the sector, with NatWest up on the day. ^[22]

City AM also pointed to the same theme: speculation around bank taxation created volatility during 2025 even as the sector ultimately avoided fresh burdens in the budget window it discussed. ^[23]

“Quiet” signals investors still watch: insider buying and credit ratings

Chairman share purchase (PDMR)

A December filing disclosed that NatWest chairman Rick Haythornthwaite bought 23,869 ordinary shares on 5 December 2025 at £6.2820 per share on the London Stock Exchange. ^[24]

Insider purchases don’t guarantee anything (executives can be wrong too—humans are gloriously fallible), but markets tend to notice them when valuations are debated.

S&P credit view: strong UK franchise, but concentration risk

An S&P Global RatingsDirect update dated 9 December 2025 (explicitly stated as not a rating action) showed:

Issuer credit rating:A+/Stable/A-1
Holding company ICR:A-/Stable/A-2
Framing that highlights NatWest’s strong UK retail/corporate position and capital/liquidity, alongside a key risk of geographic concentration in the UK. ^[25]

Credit ratings aren’t equity ratings, but they feed into funding costs and investor confidence—especially for banks.

The next catalyst: Bank of England decision (18 December 2025)

NatWest’s own mortgage guidance page states the Bank of England base rate is 4% as of 6 November 2025, with the next review scheduled for 18 December 2025. ^[26]

For NatWest shareholders, rate decisions typically influence:

Net interest margin expectations (what the bank earns on loans vs pays on deposits and wholesale funding)
Mortgage demand and refinancing behaviour
Credit quality (how stressed borrowers become as rates shift)

Even without a surprise, the tone around the outlook for rates can move bank stocks.

Bottom line for NatWest Group stock on 17 December 2025

NatWest is closing 2025 with momentum: ongoing buybacks, generally positive analyst sentiment (albeit with more “Hold/Neutral” caution after a sharp run), and a sector backdrop that has been supported by resilient profitability and a less-hostile policy mood than some investors feared earlier in the year. ^[27]

At the same time, today’s agentic AI news is a reminder that “future efficiency” stories in retail banking come bundled with governance and consumer-risk baggage, and that regulators are already thinking about what can go wrong when automation starts moving real money at real speed. ^[28]