GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) stock pulled back sharply on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, after a blockbuster run that recently pushed shares to fresh highs. As of mid-day trading, GEV was down about 7% around $636, after swinging between roughly $635 and $694 during the session. [1]
The timing matters: this drop follows a surge earlier this month after GE Vernova’s investor update reset long-term expectations for revenue, margins, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks—while new headlines today spotlight the company’s move into fuel cells for power-hungry AI data centers. [2]
Below is what’s driving attention to GE Vernova stock today—what’s new on Dec. 17, what Wall Street is forecasting, and the risks investors are weighing after the rally.
GE Vernova stock price today: a sharp pullback after a record run
GEV’s move on Dec. 17 looks less like a single-headline reaction and more like a volatility reset after rapid gains:
- Shares traded down roughly 7% intraday, near $636. [3]
- The stock is now about 12% below the $723 closing high from Dec. 10, when enthusiasm around new long-term targets peaked. [4]
In other words: even after today’s drop, GE Vernova remains one of the market’s most closely watched “electrification + data center power” plays, with investors constantly repricing how big (and how profitable) this cycle can become. [5]
The big catalyst still shaping the stock: GE Vernova’s upgraded 2028 outlook
The key backdrop to today’s action is GE Vernova’s Dec. 9 investor update, where management laid out a much more ambitious 2028 picture and increased shareholder returns. [6]
What GE Vernova guided (company targets)
From the company’s Dec. 9 release:
- 2028 revenue target:$52B (raised from $45B)
- 2028 adjusted EBITDA margin:20% (raised from 14%)
- 2025 free cash flow (FCF) guidance:$3.5B–$4.0B (raised)
- 2026 FCF guidance:$4.5B–$5.0B
- Cumulative 2025–2028 FCF:$22B+ (raised from $14B+) [7]
Shareholder returns got a boost, too
Also announced:
- Quarterly dividend increased to $0.50/share, payable Feb. 2, 2026 (record date Jan. 5, 2026)
- Share repurchase authorization increased to $10B (from $6B), with $3.3B already spent as of Dec. 3, 2025 [8]
This combination—higher targets + higher cash return commitments—is a big reason analysts have been racing to update models and price targets across the Street.
What’s new on Dec. 17: fuel cells for AI data centers enter the story
One of the most notable Dec. 17 headlines: GE Vernova is stepping deeper into data-center power infrastructure, not only through gas turbines and grid equipment, but also via fuel cells.
According to Barron’s reporting published today, GE Vernova plans to commercialize fuel cells (developed at a facility in Malta, NY) in 1–2 years, with full industrialization targeted in 3–5 years. The company’s approach reportedly uses thermal spray technology rather than ceramic plates, which could support larger-scale manufacturing economics—positioning GE Vernova as a potential competitor to established fuel-cell suppliers used in data-center backup/off-grid power configurations. [9]
Why this matters for GEV stock right now:
- It expands the “AI power stack” narrative beyond turbines and grid gear.
- It introduces a longer-dated optionality factor—investors may start valuing GE Vernova not just as an equipment supplier, but as a broader platform for next-generation power solutions.
At the same time, this is still an early-stage commercial story: Barron’s notes financial projections for the fuel-cell business weren’t yet public, which means investors may treat it as strategic upside rather than near-term earnings fuel. [10]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish revisions keep coming, even as valuation gets louder
A wave of target hikes in the last 48 hours
Into Dec. 17, multiple firms have lifted targets following the investor update:
- Baird set a new target of $816 (from $706), maintaining Outperform (published Dec. 17). [11]
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $831 (from $717), maintaining Overweight (published Dec. 16), citing higher revenue/margins in Power & Electrification and raising longer-term EBITDA and EPS estimates. [12]
- Morgan Stanley raised its target to $822 (from $710), maintaining Overweight (published Dec. 16). [13]
- Goldman Sachs raised its target to $840 (from $735), maintaining Buy (published Dec. 16). [14]
Meanwhile, other research coverage has highlighted even higher “blue-sky” cases tied to data-center power and electrification demand:
- Barron’s previously reported J.P. Morgan moving to a $1,000 price target after the investor meeting momentum. [15]
Consensus forecasts: upside exists, but it depends which dataset you use
Consensus targets vary by source and coverage universe, but one snapshot:
- MarketBeat’s compiled view shows an average target around $680.52, with a high of $860 and a low of $380. [16]
That “average target vs. a stock that recently hit $723” tension is a clue to what’s happening: the Street is bullish on fundamentals, but investors are debating how much of the story is already priced in.
The valuation debate (and why a down day can happen even with bullish targets)
GE Vernova’s rally has made valuation impossible to ignore—especially on a day when the stock is down sharply without an obvious “bad news” catalyst.
A Simply Wall St analysis published Dec. 17 argues the stock may be overvalued by ~18.9% under its DCF framework, estimating intrinsic value near $577/share and flagging a high P/E around ~109x in its presentation. [17]
Even if you disagree with that specific model, it reflects a broader market truth: fast reratings cut both ways. When a stock reprices rapidly on long-term guidance, any uncertainty—execution timelines, supply chain constraints, macro conditions—can produce abrupt pullbacks as investors lock in gains.
Fundamentals investors are focused on: gas turbines, electrification backlog, and big contracts
Gas turbine demand: “sold out” through 2028
GE Vernova sits at the center of the “time-to-power” problem for data centers and electrification. Reuters reported the company has sold out of gas turbines through 2028 and had less than 10% left to sell for the following year, as demand rises with AI-related data-center buildouts. [18]
This is one reason GEV has become a proxy for the AI power build cycle—investors see constrained supply meeting expanding demand.
Backlog expansion: management is targeting $200B by 2028
GE Vernova expects to grow total backlog from $135B to about $200B by year-end 2028, including a plan to double Electrification backlog (from $30B to $60B). [19]
Electrification wins: the Germany HVDC project with TenneT
On the grid side, GE Vernova (with consortium partner Seatrium) announced it was awarded a contract by TenneT for BalWin5, a 2.2 GW offshore HVDC grid connection designed to move North Sea wind power into Germany’s onshore network—an example of the kind of grid modernization work that supports the electrification investment thesis. [20]
Key risks for GE Vernova stock: supply chain, wind losses, and permitting realities
Rare earth exposure: yttrium constraints are real
In December, Reuters reported GE Vernova was working with the U.S. government to bolster stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth element impacted by Chinese export restrictions, noting the company had enough supply through 2025 and into 2026 but was also investing in alternative materials. Reuters also cited a dramatic increase in yttrium prices outside China in 2025. [21]
For investors, this is a reminder: even the strongest demand environment can be disrupted by specialized materials bottlenecks.
Wind remains the “messy middle” in the company’s mix
GE Vernova’s own outlook shows wind as a near-term drag, with guidance implying continued pressure and losses before improvement longer term. For 2025, the company guided to wind organic revenue down high-single digits and about $400M of segment EBITDA losses; 2026 similarly weak; and longer-term targets that still embed meaningful execution requirements. [22]
Permitting and infrastructure constraints
Even when demand is strong, building new power assets is not frictionless. Reuters pointed to obstacles such as permitting and pipeline availability that can affect the pace of new power-plant deployment. [23]
What to watch next for GEV stock
For investors tracking GE Vernova into year-end and early 2026, the market’s focus is likely to stay on a few measurable signposts:
- Order momentum and backlog quality (especially grid and data-center related projects). [24]
- Margin trajectory in Power and Electrification—because the 2028 targets assume strong profitability expansion. [25]
- Fuel-cell commercialization milestones (timelines, partners/customers, and whether financial targets start to appear). [26]
- Supply chain risk management, including rare earths like yttrium. [27]
- Capital return execution, including the increased buyback authorization and the new dividend level headed into 2026. [28]
Bottom line
On Dec. 17, 2025, GE Vernova stock is falling not because the long-term story disappeared—but because the stock’s valuation and expectations rose so quickly that investors are now stress-testing what’s priced in. Fresh “AI power” headlines (like the fuel-cell push) and aggressive analyst targets keep the upside narrative alive, while valuation models, wind execution, and supply-chain constraints keep volatility elevated. [29]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.gevernova.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.gevernova.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. m.in.investing.com, 13. www.marketscreener.com, 14. www.marketscreener.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. simplywall.st, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.gevernova.com, 20. www.gevernova.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.gevernova.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.gevernova.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gevernova.com, 29. www.barrons.com
