NEW YORK, July 25, 2026, 15:03 EDT — U.S. markets were closed ahead of the weekend.
- Super Micro ended Friday at $30.10, falling 3.5% on the day but rising 24.5% since July 17.
- Initial fourth-quarter projections indicate gross profit between $1.65 billion and $1.87 billion, with revenue close to $11 billion.
- New orders exceeding $60 billion represent roughly 5.4 times the anticipated quarterly revenue.
Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI rose 24.5% last week following an updated preliminary margin outlook. With sales at $11 billion, midpoint margin estimates suggest around $847 million in additional gross profit compared to earlier guidance. However, the stock slipped 3.5% on Friday, ending at $30.10.
The revised margin guidance of 15%-17% suggests gross profit between $1.65 billion and $1.87 billion, based on the lower sales range. Previously, the 8.2%-8.4% margin outlook indicated gross profit of $902 million to $924 million. Calculations are based on the bottom end of the sales forecast.
Revenue continues to be the weaker metric. Super Micro forecasts sales close to the lower end of its projected $11 billion-$12.5 billion range. Analysts surveyed by LSEG anticipated $11.67 billion.
Order volume continues to grow. Fourth-quarter orders have surpassed $60 billion, which is approximately 5.4 times the expected sales for the quarter. This sum is also close to 2.9 times the company’s $20.8 billion market capitalisation as of Friday.
Orders do not equate to revenue. Super Micro noted that some might not represent binding commitments and could be subject to cancellation or postponement.
Trading among peers was more subdued on Friday. Shares of Dell Technologies NYSE:DELL dropped 0.4%, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise NYSE:HPE gained 0.2%. Super Micro recorded the lowest price-to-earnings ratio in the group.
| Company | Friday close | Day move | Market value | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro | $30.10 | -3.53% | $20.8 billion | 14.5x |
| Dell | $437.50 | -0.43% | $287.0 billion | 34.9x |
| HPE | $47.69 | +0.18% | $68.3 billion | 43.8x |
The discount does not necessarily indicate low valuation. Super Micro in June announced plans for $7 billion in equity and equity-linked funding, aimed in part at purchasing parts required to fulfill $39 billion in AI server orders.
The balance sheet highlights the requirement. As of March 31, cash amounted to $1.3 billion. Bank borrowings and convertible bonds reached $8.8 billion. Operating activities during the fiscal third quarter consumed $6.6 billion in cash.
Super Micro has shifted its product offerings toward more compact AI systems. On Thursday, the company introduced H15 servers powered by Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD EPYC 9006 chips. Among the lineup is a Helios rack-scale platform that supports up to 72 GPUs.
Super Micro chief business officer Vik Malyala said the new offerings aim for “high performance, rapid scalability, and peak efficiency.” The company referenced AMD benchmarks indicating CPU performance 1.7 times higher from one generation to the next. Super Micro Computer
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson attributed the rise in margins to product scarcity. According to Bryson, this allowed Super Micro to “more favorably price products and/or shift customers to a richer mix of servers.” He gave the stock a Neutral rating and set a price target of $34. Barron’s
Nearly all of the weekly increase occurred on Wednesday, as shares surged 19.8%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1% over the week. On Friday, Super Micro saw its three-session winning streak come to an end.
Super Micro is set to announce its full-year and fourth-quarter earnings on August 11, following market close. The company’s conference call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.
In the coming week, investors are set to focus on financing disclosures, order conversion rates and customer mix. These metrics will indicate the sustainability of recent margin improvements.
Risks: Estimates are still early and have not been audited. Orders may face cancellations or delays. Issuing equity could reduce the value of existing shareholders’ holdings, and tariffs along with reliance on a few customers could affect profit margins.
The August report offers a defined benchmark. With sales around $11 billion, a single percentage point in margin represents approximately $110 million in gross profit. Investors are expected to focus on cash flow, not just order volume.
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