At 9:47 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was trading at 48,112.66, up 226.69 points (+0.47%) in early New York trading—building modestly on its opening level after a pivotal inflation update and a renewed bid for megacap tech. [1]
The tone across Wall Street was broadly risk-on at the same moment: the S&P 500 was up roughly 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite was higher by about 1.2%, while the VIX volatility gauge was lower—an early sign that traders were leaning into “better inflation, lower yields” tailwinds after a jittery stretch tied to AI valuation fears. [2]
Dow Jones level at 9:47 a.m. ET and what changed after the open
The Dow’s early move wasn’t a runaway rally—it was a measured climb. The index opened at 48,101.18 and then edged higher into the 48,112 area by 9:47 a.m. ET, trading within a morning range that included 48,073.03 to 48,310.27. [3]
That “up, but not euphoric” feel matters: it suggests investors were reacting to good news—particularly on inflation—while still keeping one eye on what markets have been wrestling with in December: whether the AI trade is overextended and how quickly the Federal Reserve will be comfortable easing again.
The headline driver: a cooler-than-expected inflation print
The biggest macro catalyst Thursday was the delayed November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Reuters reported that headline CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, below economists’ expectations of 3.1%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% year-over-year. [4]
There are two major caveats investors are weighing:
- No month-to-month CPI changes were published because a 43-day U.S. government shutdown prevented the collection of October data, leading to the cancellation of October’s CPI report. [5]
- Some economists warned that unusual seasonal dynamics (including holiday discounting) and the disrupted data collection process could distort readings—meaning markets may treat the “cooler CPI” as supportive, but not definitive. [6]
In other words: inflation looked friendlier in the year-over-year snapshot, but the lack of normal monthly detail is keeping debate alive.
Rate-cut expectations: January bets strengthen, but “noisy data” keeps the Fed debate open
Even with the caveats, markets moved quickly to price a more dovish path.
Reuters noted that traders added to expectations for a January rate cut after the CPI data and were pricing about 60 basis points of cuts for next year (per LSEG data cited by Reuters). [7]
The Reuters “VIEW” roundup captured the tug-of-war in professional commentary:
- Some strategists argued the combination of easing inflation and a softer labor market could open the door to cuts—potentially even two cuts in early 2026 if data corroborates the trend. [8]
- Others cautioned the Fed may hesitate to “overreact” because the shutdown makes the inflation picture less clean, with one view emphasizing the Fed could focus heavily on the December CPI release in mid-January as a clearer signal ahead of the next meeting. [9]
This split is part of what makes Thursday’s market action so interesting: the Dow was higher, but the rally’s durability will likely depend on whether subsequent releases confirm that inflation is cooling and growth is moderating without breaking.
Bond yields and the dollar: the classic “risk-on” alignment
Lower inflation expectations typically feed into lower yields—and early Thursday followed the script.
Reuters reported the 10-year Treasury yield fell, with the benchmark yield around 4.13% in the immediate reaction window. [10]
On Investing.com’s market snapshot around the same time, the U.S. 10-year yield was shown near 4.11%, consistent with a down-move on the morning. [11]
The dollar also softened in the CPI reaction, with Reuters citing the dollar index down modestly (around 98.25 at the time). [12]
For Dow watchers, this mix—cooler inflation + slightly lower yields + softer dollar—tends to be supportive, especially when it reduces the pressure on economically sensitive names and helps investors justify paying up for earnings stability.
Micron’s AI signal helps stabilize tech sentiment—and lifts the broader tape
While the Dow is often thought of as “old economy,” tech sentiment still matters for the whole market—especially when investors are already on edge about AI valuations.
Thursday’s standout corporate catalyst was Micron Technology:
- Reuters reported Micron jumped in premarket after issuing a blowout forecast, with optimism tied to AI-related demand. [13]
- The Associated Press framed Micron’s results as a potential antidote—at least temporarily—to the market’s “are we in an AI bubble?” anxiety, noting Micron’s strength could help claw back some of the prior day’s AI-linked losses. [14]
In plain terms: investors have been looking for proof that massive AI infrastructure spending can translate into real revenue and profit—not just hype. Micron’s numbers didn’t settle that debate forever, but they helped improve the mood.
Other market-moving headlines investors are tracking today
Beyond CPI and Micron, several corporate and thematic stories were in play on Dec. 18:
- Lululemon: Reuters highlighted the stock jumping premarket after reports tied to activist investor Elliott building a large stake. [15]
- Trump Media & Technology: Reuters reported a sharp premarket move after the company and TAE Technologies agreed to combine in an all-stock deal valued at more than $6 billion. [16]
- Birkenstock: Reuters flagged shares sliding after annual profit guidance disappointed. [17]
- Nike earnings ahead: Investopedia pointed to Nike’s report later Thursday as another key event risk for the session. [18]
Macro-linked “cross-asset” tells were also front and center for investors scanning risk appetite:
- Bitcoin was trading around $87,000, while oil hovered near $56 a barrel and gold was just under record levels, per Investopedia’s early-day roundup. [19]
Labor market check: jobless claims fall, but the “softening” narrative persists
At the same time inflation surprised to the downside, labor data stayed consistent with a market that is no longer overheated.
AP reported that initial jobless claims fell to 224,000 for the week ending Dec. 13, down from 237,000 the week before—still a relatively healthy level historically, but notable in a context where investors are watching for signs of cooling. [20]
AP also pointed to the broader backdrop:
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November (AP described it as the highest since 2021). [21]
- The Fed has already delivered multiple cuts since September, and policymakers have cited labor-market risk as part of the rationale. [22]
For the Dow, this matters because a softening labor market can cut both ways: it can pressure cyclical earnings, but it also tends to pull rate expectations lower, which can support equity valuations overall.
Global backdrop: central banks in focus, and Europe’s rate cut adds to the easing narrative
While U.S. CPI was the marquee item for U.S. markets, global rates remained part of the story.
The Associated Press reported that the Bank of England cut its key interest rate to 3.75%, citing signs that inflation pressures are easing. [23]
For U.S. investors, a global easing drift can reinforce a narrative that the peak-rate era is behind major economies—even if the timing and speed differ—supporting risk assets like equities.
Forecasts and market outlook: what strategists are watching next
Even on a “today’s Dow” story, investor interest quickly shifts from what happened to what’s next.
1) The CPI “signal” vs. the CPI “noise”
Reuters captured both sides: some see Thursday’s inflation undershoot as meaningful progress that strengthens the case for rate cuts, while others emphasize that shutdown disruptions make it risky to over-interpret any single report. [24]
2) “Santa rally” hopes and year-end seasonality
A MarketWatch note summarizing Goldman Sachs’ view suggested the late-December window can still skew positive historically, even if the firm isn’t calling for a blowout rally—an idea many traders will keep in mind as the calendar turns toward year-end positioning. [25]
3) 2026: rotation and stock selection could matter more
The same Goldman framing also pointed to a potential shift toward greater dispersion—meaning more winners and losers within the indexes rather than everything moving together—an environment where the Dow’s sector mix (industrials, financials, consumer stalwarts) can behave differently than the mega-cap-heavy Nasdaq. [26]
What to watch for the rest of today’s Dow Jones session
If you’re following the Dow beyond the 9:47 a.m. ET snapshot, the market’s next “checkpoints” are straightforward:
- Follow-through after CPI: Do yields keep drifting lower, or do they rebound as traders question data quality? [27]
- Micron and the AI complex: Can the rebound in AI-linked names hold after Wednesday’s valuation jitters? [28]
- High-profile earnings and corporate headlines: Nike’s report and other company-specific catalysts can quickly reshape sector leadership, even on macro-driven days. [29]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. apnews.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. apnews.com, 29. www.investopedia.com
