Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is back at the center of the market’s attention on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as investors balance two competing narratives: a blockbuster acquisition that could reshape the streaming and studio landscape, and a steady drumbeat of product expansion meant to keep engagement and monetization growing even as competition intensifies.
As of the latest available market update on Dec. 18, Netflix shares traded around $95.58, up about 0.83% on the day, with intraday trading between roughly $93.19 and $96.65 and volume above 30 million shares.
What’s driving the move today is not a single earnings update or subscriber leak—it’s deal momentum and deal risk. Warner Bros. Discovery’s board has escalated its push for shareholders to back Netflix’s bid over Paramount Skydance’s hostile offer, while new reporting suggests investor interest in Warner’s cable-network assets could alter the deal chessboard. [1]
Below is the full roundup of today’s news flow, the freshest stock forecasts available on Dec. 18, and what matters next for NFLX.
Netflix stock price today: what the market is pricing in
Netflix’s post–stock-split share price has become easier to parse at a glance, but the underlying valuation debate remains intense. Netflix announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split in late October, with split-adjusted trading expected to begin Nov. 17, 2025, a corporate action that many analysts and data providers have since reflected in updated targets and per-share metrics. [2]
Today’s price action keeps NFLX in the middle of the range investors have watched since the Warner deal emerged. One widely followed market-data snapshot shows NFLX around $95–$96, with a market cap near $436.7 billion, a trailing P/E around 39.9, and a 52-week range of about $82.11 to $134.12. [3]
That valuation premium is a key reason why the Warner bid—and the financing and regulatory path around it—has become the defining issue for the stock heading into 2026.
The biggest Netflix stock catalyst on Dec. 18: Warner Bros. Discovery backs Netflix and slams Paramount’s hostile bid
The dominant headline impacting Netflix stock today is the intensifying bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery.
Warner’s board: Paramount’s proposal is “illusory”—Netflix’s is a binding, financed deal
In a detailed shareholder letter, Warner Bros. Discovery’s board urged shareholders to reject Paramount Skydance’s tender offer, reiterating that Netflix’s merger agreement represents “superior” and “more certain” value. [4]
Reuters reporting adds color on why Warner’s board drew such a sharp line: Warner accused Paramount of misleading shareholders about financing, highlighting that the Ellison family had not provided the kind of unconditional equity backstop Warner said it repeatedly requested. [5]
From a market standpoint, this matters for Netflix investors because it suggests the deal is not only alive—but being actively defended by the target’s board, raising the probability that Netflix’s agreement remains the base case (even if the timeline is long).
Barron’s summarized the market reaction succinctly: Warner’s stock dipped while Netflix rose on the renewed endorsement of the Netflix transaction (and on skepticism around Paramount’s funding certainty). [6]
Deal terms: what Netflix is offering for Warner’s crown jewels
Netflix and Warner previously announced a definitive agreement in which Netflix will acquire Warner Bros., including film and television studios, HBO Max, and HBO. [7]
Key economics (as laid out by Netflix) include:
- $27.75 per WBD share in a cash-and-stock transaction
- $23.25 in cash + $4.50 in Netflix stock per share (with a collar mechanism on the stock component)
- Total enterprise value of ~$82.7 billion (equity value ~$72.0 billion) [8]
Netflix also positioned the transaction as financially meaningful, saying it expects $2–$3 billion of annual cost savings by year three and that the deal should be accretive to GAAP EPS by year two. [9]
The structure: Discovery Global separation is central to the story
A major element in this transaction—and a key reason it’s so closely watched by regulators and investors—is the planned separation of Warner’s Global Networks division into a new publicly traded company, Discovery Global, ahead of closing.
Netflix states the deal is expected to close after that separation, which is now expected to be completed in Q3 2026. [10]
Netflix also describes Discovery Global as the home for a portfolio of cable and international network assets—including CNN and TNT Sports in the U.S., along with Discovery, certain free-to-air channels in Europe, and products such as Discovery+ and Bleacher Report. [11]
AP’s explainer on the bidding war underscores why this split matters: Netflix’s bid is aimed at Warner’s streaming and studio assets, while the networks are positioned separately—an approach that could shape how regulators and shareholders weigh the proposals. [12]
A new wrinkle today: Standard General talks could reshape Warner’s cable-asset endgame
Adding a fresh layer to the story on Dec. 18, Reuters reported that Soo Kim, founder of hedge fund Standard General, has been in talks over potentially buying or investing in Warner Bros. Discovery’s television networks—a group that includes CNN—according to a Financial Times report Reuters summarized. [13]
Reuters said Standard General had reportedly been approached by at least one major Warner shareholder regarding acquiring “all or part” of those cable assets. [14]
Why this matters for Netflix stock:
- It reinforces that the Warner deal is not just a streaming merger—it’s also an asset-separation and asset-disposition story.
- It hints at potential demand (and potential pricing) for linear-network assets that Netflix is not buying, which could influence perceived value for Warner shareholders and reduce overhang on the transaction structure.
- It keeps headline risk elevated: any material change in who owns what, and when, can trigger renewed regulatory, financing, and shareholder scrutiny.
Reuters also noted political attention around CNN, referencing comments that CNN “should be sold” in connection with a Warner deal or separately—an added reminder that this transaction sits under a bright spotlight. [15]
Regulatory and financing watch: the collar, the break fees, and the timeline
For Netflix shareholders, the acquisition debate largely boils down to three questions:
- Can it close?
- How long will it take?
- What will it cost Netflix—financially and strategically—along the way?
The collar mechanism: what happens if Netflix stock moves
Netflix’s offer includes a collar on the stock component of the consideration. Under the terms Netflix published:
- WBD shareholders receive Netflix stock valued at $4.50 per WBD share if Netflix’s 15-day VWAP falls between $97.91 and $119.67 (measured shortly before closing).
- Outside that band, the number of Netflix shares issued adjusts based on fixed exchange ratios (0.0460 shares per WBD share below the lower bound; 0.0376 above the upper bound). [16]
This matters to NFLX because a collar can influence investor expectations around dilution and can also become a psychological “range” the market watches as closing approaches.
The breakup and regulatory termination fees: unusually large numbers
Warner’s board letter highlights unusually high termination protections. It stated that Netflix agreed to a $5.8 billion regulatory termination cash fee, which the board described as record-setting, and compared it to Paramount’s cited $5 billion break fee. [17]
Warner’s board also warned that if Warner were to pivot away from Netflix toward Paramount’s offer, Warner could owe Netflix a $2.8 billion termination fee, plus additional potential financing costs that could ultimately impact shareholders. [18]
The regulatory path: DOJ and EU engagement is already underway
Reuters reported that Netflix is in talks with the U.S. Department of Justice and the European Commission regarding the transaction, with Netflix leadership expressing confidence in how regulators will view it. [19]
Warner’s board, meanwhile, argued it did not see a material difference in regulatory risk between Paramount’s and Netflix’s proposals. [20]
Still, the market is clearly treating regulatory review as a central uncertainty—especially in a world where regulators can define markets narrowly (streaming) or broadly (all video entertainment), producing very different conclusions.
Other Netflix corporate news hitting the tape: gaming and video podcasts
While the Warner situation is the headline for investors today, Netflix also continues to expand beyond traditional series-and-films streaming—two moves that reinforce management’s push into engagement-based adjacencies.
Netflix gaming: a FIFA World Cup title planned for 2026
Reuters reported that Netflix will release a soccer simulation video game tied to the FIFA World Cup 2026, developed by Delphi Interactive in partnership with FIFA. [21]
Netflix’s own Tudum publication described the game as a “newly reimagined FIFA football simulation game” arriving in time for the 2026 tournament, emphasizing accessibility and play via Netflix Games. [22]
From a stock perspective, gaming remains relatively small versus Netflix’s core streaming business—but investors often view these initiatives as a way to increase retention, deepen IP engagement, and open additional monetization paths over time.
Netflix video podcasts: exclusive Barstool deal aimed at YouTube’s turf
Business Insider reported that Netflix will carry three Barstool Sports video podcasts exclusively—including “Pardon My Take,” “The Ryen Russillo Show,” and “Spittin’ Chiclets”—with video pulled from YouTube while audio remains on other platforms. [23]
This fits Netflix’s broader strategy of competing for time spent, not just subscription dollars—especially as YouTube continues to dominate many living-room screens.
Netflix stock forecasts and analyst outlook as of Dec. 18, 2025
Even with heavy deal-driven volatility, the Street’s baseline view on Netflix remains broadly constructive—though the Warner transaction has widened the spread between bullish and cautious outlooks.
Consensus targets: still “Buy” on average, but with a wide range
One consolidated analyst snapshot lists NFLX with an Analyst Consensus of “Buy” and a 12-month price target around $131, implying roughly 37% upside from the then-current trading level in that dataset. [24]
Another compilation pegs the average 12-month forecast at $138.16, with targets ranging from about $78.09 on the low end to $168.00 on the high end, and an overall “BUY” consensus across dozens of analysts. [25]
These numbers should not be treated as certainties—but they are useful for understanding how the market is bracketing the next year: meaningful upside in the base case, with clear downside scenarios if regulatory or integration risks escalate.
Fundamental “guru” style analysis published today
For investors who follow systematic fundamental frameworks, Nasdaq published a Validea “guru” report on Dec. 18, 2025 showing Netflix scoring 87% under a Peter Lynch–style P/E-to-growth framework. The report flags several criteria as “PASS,” while listing free cash flow and net cash position as “NEUTRAL.” [26]
This type of model-driven analysis is not a substitute for deep deal underwriting, but it highlights why NFLX continues to screen well for many growth-oriented investors even amid M&A uncertainty.
The bull case vs. bear case for Netflix stock right now
What bulls are betting on
- Strategic dominance: Owning Warner’s studio franchises plus HBO’s prestige TV could create a content-and-distribution combination that is hard to match globally. [27]
- Financial upside: Netflix projects $2–$3B in annual cost savings by year three and EPS accretion by year two post-close. [28]
- Deal resilience: Warner’s board is actively defending Netflix’s agreement and highlighting the protections and financing certainty of the Netflix deal structure. [29]
- Engagement expansion: Gaming (FIFA title) and video podcasts (Barstool) signal ongoing experimentation to keep users inside the Netflix ecosystem longer. [30]
What bears are worried about
- Regulatory friction: DOJ and EU scrutiny is already a disclosed part of the process; timelines can stretch and remedies can change deal economics. [31]
- Execution complexity: The transaction depends on the planned separation of Discovery Global, adding additional steps and timing risks. [32]
- Deal uncertainty noise: New reports like Standard General’s talks on cable assets show how many moving parts exist—and how quickly the narrative can shift. [33]
- Valuation sensitivity: With NFLX still trading at a premium multiple in many datasets, any disappointment on deal progress, margins, or growth can be punished quickly. [34]
Key dates and milestones Netflix investors are watching next
If you’re following NFLX into year-end and early 2026, these are the signposts most likely to move the stock:
- Jan. 8, 2026: Paramount Skydance’s tender offer expiration date (per coverage of the bidding timeline). [35]
- Spring / early summer 2026: Warner’s expected shareholder vote window referenced in Reuters reporting. [36]
- Q3 2026: Expected completion timing for the Discovery Global separation ahead of closing, per Netflix’s deal announcement. [37]
- Jan. 20, 2026: Netflix’s next scheduled earnings release date shown in market-data listings. [38]
Bottom line for Dec. 18, 2025
Netflix stock is being driven today by deal probability, not just business fundamentals. The Warner board’s aggressive defense of Netflix’s offer, the disclosure of large termination protections, and the emergence of new conversations around Warner’s cable assets collectively reinforce that the transaction is moving through a high-stakes phase—but also that it remains far from a “done deal.” [39]
At the same time, Netflix continues to act like a company aiming to become the default entertainment hub—adding gaming tied to global sports events and buying exclusive video podcast rights to compete for attention against YouTube and social video platforms. [40]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. ir.wbd.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. ir.netflix.net, 8. ir.netflix.net, 9. ir.netflix.net, 10. ir.netflix.net, 11. ir.netflix.net, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. ir.netflix.net, 17. ir.wbd.com, 18. ir.wbd.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. ir.wbd.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.netflix.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. valueinvesting.io, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. ir.netflix.net, 28. ir.netflix.net, 29. ir.wbd.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. ir.netflix.net, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. apnews.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. ir.netflix.net, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. ir.wbd.com, 40. www.reuters.com
