Intel Corporation stock (NASDAQ: INTC) is back in the spotlight on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, as investors weigh two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions: a major chipmaking milestone that reinforces Intel Foundry’s long-term roadmap, and fresh political scrutiny tied to the company’s evaluation of semiconductor manufacturing tools with links to China.
The push-pull dynamic shows up clearly in recent price action. Intel shares ended Wednesday, Dec. 17 at $36.05, down 3.38% and marking a fifth straight daily decline, leaving the stock about 18% below its 52-week high of $44.02 reached on Dec. 3. [1]
At the same time, the broader semiconductor tape improved on Thursday as markets reacted to a softer-than-expected inflation reading and a surge in Micron on upbeat AI-driven guidance—helping lift the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index. [2]
Below is a detailed, up-to-date roundup of the key Intel stock news, forecasts, and analyst views shaping INTC on Dec. 18, 2025.
Intel stock price today: why INTC is moving on Dec. 18, 2025
Intel’s latest slide came during a broad tech pullback, but the stock still “outperformed” several large semiconductor peers on the day of the Dec. 17 drop—highlighting that the move wasn’t just an Intel-specific event, even as Intel faces its own headline risk. [3]
By late morning Thursday, Intel traded around the mid-$36 area (roughly $36.3–$36.4 in widely cited market updates), keeping the stock near the center of a debate that has defined INTC for much of 2025: Is Intel’s turnaround becoming durable—or is the market getting ahead of execution risk? [4]
The macro backdrop matters here. On Dec. 18, U.S. equities found support after inflation data came in softer than economists expected year-over-year, while a powerful rally in Micron helped ease (at least temporarily) some of the market’s anxiety around AI-capex payback timelines. [5]
What that means for Intel stock: INTC is trading in a market that can reward semis broadly on good macro/AI signals—but Intel-specific headlines can still dominate day-to-day moves.
The bullish catalyst: Intel Foundry’s High-NA EUV milestone raises the “ceiling” for 14A
One of the most consequential Intel developments this week isn’t about a product launch—it’s about manufacturing.
Intel announced it has installed ASML’s TWINSCAN EXE:5200B, described as the industry’s first commercial High-NA (0.55 numerical aperture) EUV lithography system ready for production-oriented work, and that the tool has passed acceptance testing. The company plans to use it to advance development of Intel’s 14A process—a node Intel expects to be the first to rely on High‑NA EUV for its most critical layers. [6]
Why investors care:
- High-NA EUV is a manufacturing step-change. Compared with today’s low‑NA EUV tools, High‑NA aims to improve resolution and reduce the need for complex multipatterning in certain layers—one of the key cost and yield challenges as chips shrink.
- The EXE:5200B platform is associated with performance claims such as 8nm resolution, throughput around 175 wafers per hour, and overlay accuracy near 0.7nm—figures that, if consistently realized in manufacturing conditions, matter for yield, cost per wafer, and time-to-volume. [7]
- Strategically, this milestone supports Intel’s pitch that it can compete not only as a CPU designer, but as a leading-edge foundry for external customers.
It’s also part of a longer arc. Intel has positioned itself as an early High‑NA adopter for more than a year; Intel’s own newsroom materials previously emphasized that Intel had received and assembled early High‑NA EUV systems and viewed High‑NA as central to extending process leadership beyond Intel 18A. [8]
The key nuance for INTC stock: High‑NA EUV is a strategic win, but it is not an immediate revenue event. The market tends to price these milestones as a credibility signal—important, but still dependent on execution, yields, customer commitments, and timing.
The political risk: lawmakers raise alarms over Intel testing tools tied to China-linked operations
If High‑NA EUV is the long-term “bull case” headline, Washington is the near-term risk headline.
Reuters reported that Intel has tested wet-etch tools from ACM Research for possible use in Intel’s most advanced 14A process development. Two ACM subsidiaries (in Shanghai and South Korea) were previously barred from receiving certain U.S. technology, and the situation triggered national security concerns among U.S. policymakers, according to Reuters’ reporting. [9]
Importantly, Reuters also reported:
- Reuters could not determine whether Intel decided to add the tools to the 14A process.
- Reuters said it found no evidence Intel violated U.S. regulations.
- Intel stated that ACM’s tools “are not used” in its semiconductor production process and that Intel complies with applicable laws. [10]
On Dec. 17, Reuters reported that Republican lawmakers criticized Intel after the earlier Reuters findings, with calls to advance legislation that would restrict subsidized chipmakers from using Chinese equipment in government-backed expansion plans. [11]
Why it matters for Intel stock today:
- Intel has become tightly intertwined with U.S. industrial policy—meaning political and compliance optics can move the stock, not just fundamentals.
- Even if no laws were broken, the episode amplifies investor concern about regulatory constraints, procurement limitations, and reputational friction at a time when Intel is trying to win foundry customers that prize supply-chain security.
Intel’s government ties are deeper than ever—and that cuts both ways for INTC investors
Intel’s relationship with Washington is not abstract. Intel itself announced in August 2025 that the U.S. government would make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock (priced at $20.47 per share) representing a 9.9% stake, with additional details around funding sources and terms. [12]
That context is directly relevant to the current scrutiny over tool evaluation and supply-chain risk: a company framed as a pillar of domestic semiconductor capacity can face higher expectations—and faster political blowback—around national security questions.
This week, Intel also made a high-profile move on the policy front: Reuters reported that Intel appointed Robin Colwell, a deputy assistant to President Trump and deputy director of the National Economic Council, as head of government affairs, following the vacancy after Intel’s prior government affairs leader departed after the U.S. elections. [13]
Intel also announced other senior changes in that same update, including a new leader for Intel Government Technologies and a marketing/communications chief, while noting its former CTO had left to join OpenAI, according to Reuters. [14]
Investor takeaway: Intel is reinforcing its policy interface at a moment when policy risk is rising—an understandable move, but also a reminder that government relationships have become a core variable in the INTC thesis.
Deal chatter and governance questions: SambaNova and the spotlight on CEO Lip‑Bu Tan
Intel’s strategy under CEO Lip‑Bu Tan continues to attract attention—not only for technology direction, but for governance.
Reuters: conflicts-of-interest concerns around deal pursuits
On Dec. 10, Reuters reported details about Intel exploring deals that could benefit Tan financially and the company implementing policies for Tan to recuse himself from certain decisions where conflicts may exist, according to sources cited by Reuters. [15]
WIRED: Intel signs a term sheet tied to SambaNova
Separately, WIRED reported on Dec. 9 that Intel had signed a nonbinding term sheet to acquire AI chip startup SambaNova Systems, citing sources with direct knowledge of the agreement. WIRED noted that the term sheet was nonbinding and that the deal could still dissolve during diligence and approvals. [16]
The SambaNova angle is particularly sensitive because WIRED also reported that Tan is the executive chairman of SambaNova, and that Intel Capital has invested in the company. [17]
Why INTC investors care right now:
Intel’s “AI catch-up” narrative has two paths—build internally, or acquire/partner to accelerate. But when acquisition rumors involve perceived conflicts, it can widen the stock’s risk premium, even if the strategic logic is compelling.
Intel earnings and guidance: what the company last told investors
For fundamentals, Intel’s most recent official financial guideposts remain anchored to its Q3 2025 report and Q4 outlook.
In its Q3 2025 results release, Intel reported:
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.23 (GAAP EPS was $0.90 in that report’s summary line),
- and guided for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8B to $13.8B and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.08 (GAAP EPS guidance of $(0.14)), noting the guidance excludes Altera after the majority stake sale completed in Q3. [18]
What the market is doing with that information on Dec. 18:
Investors are essentially trying to price the slope of Intel’s improvement: whether cost cuts plus manufacturing execution can translate into sustained profitability and credible foundry momentum into 2026–2027.
Intel stock forecast and analyst outlook: what Wall Street expects for INTC
Analyst views on Intel remain notably divided—often expressed as a “Hold” consensus with a wide range of price targets.
Two widely followed consensus snapshots illustrate the spread:
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target of about $37.33, with forecasts ranging from $20 to $52, based on analysts’ targets in the prior three months (as displayed on its forecast page). [19]
- ValueInvesting.io shows an average 12‑month forecast around $36.63, with a range from $18.18 to $54.60, and a “Hold” consensus based on its tracked analyst set. [20]
ValueInvesting.io’s estimate set also summarizes expectations for modest revenue growth and improving EPS into next year (as displayed on the same page), with revenue estimates around $53.61B (this year) and $54.69B (next year) and EPS estimates around $0.35 rising to $0.59. [21]
How to interpret this as of Dec. 18, 2025:
The market is not lacking forecasts—it’s lacking agreement. The unusually wide price-target range signals that analysts see Intel’s path as highly contingent on:
- manufacturing execution (18A/14A),
- foundry customer traction, and
- AI competitiveness and monetization.
The bull case vs. bear case for Intel stock heading into 2026
Here’s how the debate looks today, based on the latest reporting and consensus data.
Bull case for INTC
- Manufacturing credibility is improving. The High‑NA EUV acceptance-testing milestone supports Intel’s argument that it can lead the next lithography era—and that matters for 14A. [22]
- A 2025 turnaround narrative already has real momentum. Reuters previously reported Intel shares had gained about 90% in 2025 at the time of its Oct. 24 update, supported by investments and cost cuts. [23]
- Government alignment can be a tailwind. Intel’s U.S. expansion strategy and the U.S. government’s equity investment underline the “strategic national asset” framing that can unlock support and customer confidence—especially for sensitive workloads. [24]
Bear case for INTC
- Policy and compliance headlines can become a persistent overhang. The tool-testing controversy shows how quickly Intel can become a political target—and how that can raise uncertainty around procurement and oversight. [25]
- Execution risk remains real. Reuters reported in October that Intel’s CFO cautioned yields for the advanced 18A process would remain below industry standards and not reach “acceptable levels” until 2027. [26]
- Deal-driven AI acceleration comes with governance risk. The Reuters report on conflict questions and the WIRED report on a nonbinding SambaNova term sheet keep investors focused on process, oversight, and potential distraction risk. [27]
What to watch next for Intel stock
For investors tracking Intel stock news in real time, the next catalysts to monitor are straightforward—but consequential:
- Any follow-on action in Washington tied to tool procurement rules or subsidy-linked restrictions. [28]
- More detail on Intel Foundry’s 14A timeline and how quickly High‑NA EUV moves from milestone to repeatable manufacturing advantage. [29]
- Clarity on M&A/partnership direction in AI, including whether SambaNova talks proceed beyond the reported nonbinding term sheet stage. [30]
- The next earnings date and guidance update. Intel has not posted a confirmed Q4 2025 earnings date on its IR calendar yet, and third-party trackers estimate late January 2026; investors should treat dates as provisional until Intel confirms. [31]
Bottom line for Dec. 18, 2025
Intel stock is trading at the intersection of hard-tech progress and hard-politics scrutiny. The High‑NA EUV milestone strengthens the long-term manufacturing narrative behind Intel Foundry and 14A, but the Washington controversy around tool testing underscores that Intel’s turnaround is now deeply entangled with national security policy, oversight, and perception—variables that can move INTC even when quarterly fundamentals stay the same.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.fool.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.tomshardware.com, 7. www.tomshardware.com, 8. newsroom.intel.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. newsroom.intel.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.wired.com, 17. www.wired.com, 18. www.intc.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.valueinvesting.io, 21. www.valueinvesting.io, 22. www.tomshardware.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. newsroom.intel.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.tomshardware.com, 30. www.wired.com, 31. www.intc.com
