Bitcoin is ending another volatile December session in familiar territory: traders keep defending the mid-$80,000s, but rallies toward $90,000 have struggled to stick. The day’s narrative is being shaped by a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print, a rebound in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and growing attention on a massive year-end options expiration that could amplify price swings into Christmas week.
Bitcoin price today (BTC): latest levels and today’s trading range
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $85,200, down roughly 0.8% over the last 24 hours. Today’s session saw a wide band—roughly $84,461 (low) to $89,230 (high)—underscoring that volatility remains a defining feature as 2025 winds down.
Even after months of headlines and institutional adoption, Bitcoin is still well off its early-October record near $126,000, leaving it down about a third from the peak as investors debate whether the market is in a temporary cooling phase—or something more durable. [1]
Key takeaways at a glance
- BTC price today: about $85.2K, with a ~$4.8K intraday swing.
- Macro driver: U.S. CPI ran cooler than expected, lifting rate-cut chatter into early 2026. [2]
- Flow driver: Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted about $457M in net inflows (Wednesday), a sharp reversal from recent outflow days. [3]
- Volatility catalyst: Around $23B in Bitcoin options are set to expire Dec. 26, focusing attention on strike “magnets” such as $85K. [4]
Why Bitcoin moved today: inflation cools, and rate-cut expectations creep back
The macro backdrop mattered again on Dec. 18.
Reuters reported that U.S. consumer prices increased 2.7% year-over-year in November, below a 3.1% forecast, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to 2.6%. [5]
That downside surprise pushed markets toward a more dovish interpretation of early 2026—the kind of shift that can support risk assets like crypto, even if Bitcoin’s response was choppy rather than decisive. Reuters also flagged that the CPI series has been complicated by data disruptions tied to the earlier U.S. government shutdown, an asterisk investors are keeping in mind. [6]
Why this matters for Bitcoin:
Bitcoin often trades like a high-beta liquidity asset at the margin—when the market senses lower rates or earlier easing, it can boost appetite for speculative exposure. The catch is that today’s CPI optimism is colliding with year-end positioning, thin liquidity, and a derivatives calendar that’s commanding attention.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs rebound: “risk-on” flows return (for now)
One of the most closely watched signals in 2025 remains the spot Bitcoin ETF complex—not just for price impact, but for sentiment.
Data tracked by Farside Investors shows about $457.3 million in net inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Dec. 17, marking a meaningful reversal after prior outflow sessions. [7]
The Defiant similarly reported roughly $457 million in net inflows and noted total net assets around $112.6 billion, citing SoSoValue. [8]
CoinDesk also highlighted that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs logged their strongest inflows in more than a month, a noteworthy data point because it suggests institutional demand hasn’t vanished—it may simply be more selective on timing and price. [9]
What to watch next:
ETF flows can be “sticky” when driven by longer-term allocators—but they can also be “fast money” around macro releases. If inflows persist into the end of December, it strengthens the argument that the mid-$80Ks is attracting institutional dip-buying. If flows fade, the market may lean more heavily on derivatives dynamics and spot selling pressure.
The big volatility catalyst: $23 billion Bitcoin options expiry (Dec. 26) and the $85K “magnet”
The most cited near-term catalyst across trading desks today: year-end options expiration.
Bloomberg reported that roughly $23 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire next Friday, increasing the risk of sharp moves as positions roll off or get hedged. [10]
The Economic Times added detail, citing a Bloomberg report and industry commentary:
- The expiry represents more than half of Deribit open interest (Deribit is a major crypto options venue). [11]
- It pointed to positioning that looks defensive in the near term, with significant focus on $85,000 strikes. [12]
This matters because large options expiries can create a pinning effect (price gravitating toward heavily trafficked strikes) or a snap effect (price breaking hard once hedges unwind). In other words: even if the narrative is “inflation cooled,” the tape can still whip around because microstructure takes over.
Crypto stocks diverge from Bitcoin: Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy in focus
While Bitcoin itself has struggled for clean upside momentum, some crypto-linked equities have shown relative resilience.
Barron’s reported that crypto-exposed stocks rose in premarket trading even as major tokens were mixed—highlighting moves in Coinbase and Robinhood, and noting Strategy’s ongoing role as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. [13]
Strategy remains a market bellwether because it’s effectively a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin exposure. Investors.com reported Strategy had purchased roughly 20,000 BTC for about $1.94 billion in the prior two weeks, while also noting debate about how much more balance-sheet firepower remains at current valuations. [14]
Regulation and policy headlines on Dec. 18: supportive backdrop, but legislative uncertainty persists
Beyond price action, several policy stories hit the tape today—important for medium-term sentiment, even if they don’t immediately move BTC by thousands of dollars.
- Reuters reported Coinbase appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne to lead an internal advisory council as the exchange looks to expand policy influence outside the U.S. [15]
- Reuters also described how the U.S. crypto industry is celebrating regulatory wins in 2025, while warning momentum could fizzle if market-structure legislation stalls heading into 2026 politics. [16]
- Separately, the U.S. SEC posted an enforcement release detailing charges tied to an alleged bitcoin-mining investment scheme—an example of ongoing enforcement risk around fraud even as broader policy debates continue. [17]
Market implication: The policy environment may be improving at the margin (especially for large regulated players), but uncertainty around comprehensive market structure rules can still weigh on risk appetite—particularly late in the year when positioning is already cautious. [18]
Bitcoin forecasts and longer-term outlook: $150K in 2026 vs. higher “stretch” scenarios
Despite the choppy tape, mainstream and institutional commentary has not disappeared—it has shifted toward probability-weighted scenarios.
A Nasdaq.com analysis published today cited Wall Street expectations that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026, referencing forecasts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein. [19]
Meanwhile, CoinDesk referenced a longer-horizon valuation framework from CF Benchmarks that outlines scenarios extending into 2035, including a bullish pathway that could put Bitcoin far above current levels if adoption deepens meaningfully. [20]
How to interpret forecasts in today’s market:
- Near-term (days to weeks): dominated by liquidity, positioning, and levels (options, ETF flows, forced selling/buying).
- Medium-term (months): macro policy and real-economy data (rates, inflation credibility, growth scares).
- Long-term (years): adoption, regulation, and whether Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a portfolio “staple” rather than a pure risk-on trade. [21]
Technical analysis: the levels traders are watching right now
From a pure market-structure standpoint, today’s action still looks like a battle between a defended floor and heavy overhead supply.
A DailyForex technical outlook published Dec. 18 described:
- Resistance around $93,000
- Support around $84,000, extending down toward $80,000
- A deeper downside risk scenario if $80,000 breaks (with lower targets mentioned in that analysis) [22]
An Investing.com technical/macro note also framed Bitcoin as stuck below $90,000 and struggling to mount a sustained recovery, with traders watching major catalysts like CPI and central bank decisions. [23]
Putting today’s price action together with derivatives chatter, the market is broadly tracking these zones:
Support zones
- $85,000: psychological + options positioning hotspot [24]
- $84,000–$80,000: key technical support band cited in daily trading commentary [25]
Resistance zones
- $89,000–$90,000: recent rejection area and a key “prove it” zone [26]
- $93,000: area flagged as heavy resistance in technical commentary [27]
What to watch next (tonight and into next week)
With Bitcoin trading 24/7, “after-hours” can still deliver outsized moves—especially into year-end. Here’s what market participants are tracking from here:
- Follow-through after CPI: whether crypto holds gains (or avoids deeper losses) once the initial macro impulse fades. [28]
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flow continuity: does the rebound in inflows extend beyond one session? [29]
- Options expiry dynamics (Dec. 26): watch if BTC “pins” near major strikes like $85K or breaks away with force. [30]
- Regulatory/legislative headlines: signs of progress—or further delays—around market-structure rules could shape 2026 sentiment. [31]
Bottom line
Bitcoin price today reflects a market caught between improving macro signals (cooler inflation, revived rate-cut hopes) and powerful year-end trading mechanics (ETF flow sensitivity, looming options expiry, and thin holiday liquidity).
For now, the mid-$80,000s are the battleground, and traders are watching whether catalysts can push BTC back through the $90,000 ceiling—or whether derivatives-related gravity and overhead supply pull it toward lower support zones first. [32]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.coinbase.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. farside.co.uk, 4. www.bloomberg.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. farside.co.uk, 8. thedefiant.io, 9. www.coindesk.com, 10. www.bloomberg.com, 11. m.economictimes.com, 12. m.economictimes.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.coindesk.com, 21. www.coindesk.com, 22. www.dailyforex.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. m.economictimes.com, 25. www.dailyforex.com, 26. thedefiant.io, 27. www.dailyforex.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. farside.co.uk, 30. www.bloomberg.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.dailyforex.com
