Nebius Group N.V. (Nasdaq: NBIS) finished Thursday, December 18, 2025 with a sharp rebound, and the stock remained active in extended trading as investors digested fresh AI-infrastructure headlines, renewed debate about “neocloud” debt funding, and a macro backdrop that turned more supportive for high-growth names. [1]
Below is what happened after the bell on Dec. 18 and what matters most before the market opens on Friday, December 19, 2025.
NBIS price action after the bell on Dec 18 2025
Nebius shares closed the regular session at $78.09, up $2.64 or 3.50% on the day. Intraday trading was volatile, with the stock touching roughly the $76–$80 zone and volume around 10 million shares, depending on the data source. [2]
In after-hours trading, NBIS was quoted higher earlier in the evening. Yahoo Finance’s historical tape showed $79.26 at 6:18 p.m. EST, which would represent an additional +1.49% move after the 4:00 p.m. close. [3]
Why this matters for Friday’s open: NBIS has been trading like a classic high-beta AI infrastructure name, where sentiment can swing quickly and extended-hours prints often hint at positioning ahead of the next session. MarketBeat, for example, lists a high beta and notes the stock’s moving averages have been above the current price, reflecting how far the shares pulled back from recent highs even after today’s bounce. [4]
The main drivers behind today’s rebound
Thursday’s strength in NBIS didn’t come from a single headline. Instead, it looked like a convergence of three narratives investors have been trading all month: AI infrastructure demand, funding costs, and macro rates.
AI infrastructure sentiment improved as the chip supply chain looked healthier
A major cross-current today was optimism around AI-related demand after Micron reported strong results and upbeat guidance (an important read-through for AI server buildouts that depend on high-bandwidth memory and broader memory supply). That kind of “AI demand is still real” signal tends to lift the whole infrastructure stack—even names that aren’t chipmakers. [5]
A cooler inflation print supported risk appetite for high-growth stocks
On the macro side, Reuters reported that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected (year-over-year CPI below forecast), and markets reacted with a risk-on tilt (futures up, yields down) while traders leaned more into the idea of rate cuts in early 2026. That environment is often supportive for longer-duration, high-growth equities—especially those priced on multi-year revenue ramps. [6]
A “relief bounce” after a sharp pullback kept the tape reactive
NBIS entered Thursday coming off a rough patch, and several market commentaries framed the move as a rebound after heavy selling pressure. MarketWatch summarized a Seaport Research view that recent declines in neocloud names like Nebius may have been “overdone,” while still emphasizing the real uncertainty around valuations and the cost of future debt funding. [7]
Today’s Nebius-specific news investors kept circling back to
Even though Nebius did not publish a brand-new press release dated Dec. 18, the company’s Dec. 17 product announcement continued to drive discussion today—because it goes directly to Nebius’ core bull thesis: differentiated access to cutting-edge GPUs plus tools that make GPU capacity usable for enterprises at scale.
Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 and Nvidia Blackwell Ultra rollout
Nebius announced Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 on December 17, 2025, positioning it as a major update to its “Aether” full-stack AI cloud platform. Key claims include deployment of NVIDIA HGX B300 and GB300 NVL72 systems and use of 800 Gbps NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand, plus “Capacity Blocks” and a real-time dashboard aimed at making GPU availability more transparent for customers managing multi-team AI workloads. [8]
A Nasdaq-hosted analysis piece (published early Dec. 18 and attributed to Zacks) echoed those same themes—highlighting the operational angle (visibility into GPU capacity, planning tools, and enterprise governance) and stressing that competition and execution risks remain intense in the AI infrastructure market. [9]
One practical upcoming catalyst tied to that announcement: Nebius said it plans to host a technical walkthrough webinar for AI Cloud 3.1 with a live Q&A on January 29 (with times listed in CET, EST, and PST). [10]
The biggest debate in today’s forecasts: growth runway versus valuation and funding risk
Thursday’s coverage and commentary made one thing clear: forecasts for NBIS are not converging—they’re spreading.
Wall Street targets imply large upside, but estimates vary widely
MarketBeat’s roundup of analyst sentiment described an overall “Buy”-leaning stance and cited an average price target around $144.71, while also noting a wide dispersion in opinions and target levels (including a higher target from Northland). [11]
TipRanks’ reporting similarly described a “Strong Buy” consensus in its dataset, with an average target around $164.20 and specific high-end targets (for example, $211 from Northland’s Nehal Chokshi in TipRanks’ write-up, and $175 from Citizens JMP’s Gregory P. Miller). [12]
Meanwhile, multiple sources circulating today referenced a $151.50 one-year target estimate (often repeated in market recaps and sentiment pieces). [13]
Takeaway: the market is effectively telling you that “NBIS can be worth much more”—but only if execution stays strong and capital markets stay open enough to fund expansion without destroying shareholder value.
Bull case that showed up across today’s analysis
The bullish logic repeated across several pieces is straightforward:
- Nebius is pitching itself as a full-stack AI infrastructure provider built for production workloads, not just experimentation—pairing advanced GPU infrastructure with enterprise controls and capacity planning. [14]
- Demand signals from large tech and AI buildouts remain strong, and positive read-throughs from the chip ecosystem can buoy sentiment toward the infrastructure layer. [15]
- Some commentators argue that large AI customers may ultimately prefer to own infrastructure providers rather than rent indefinitely—The Motley Fool even floated Nebius as an acquisition candidate (explicitly as opinion, not a report). [16]
Bear case and the caution flags highlighted today
Today’s bearish and “not so fast” arguments focused on three risks:
- Valuation risk: A Seeking Alpha analysis published Dec. 18 framed Nebius as a high-risk AI infrastructure trade and argued the stock was priced like a speculative asset that could be vulnerable if hyperscaler capex moderates. [17]
- Debt and funding costs: MarketWatch’s summary of Seaport’s view emphasized uncertainty around neocloud valuation and the reality that these businesses may need to raise more debt—at a time when credit spreads and funding costs can tighten quickly. [18]
- Profitability and cash burn: A 24/7 Wall St. piece posted Dec. 18 highlighted retail skepticism and pointed to losses and weak operating margins, while also noting that institutional ownership and analyst ratings remain supportive despite those fundamentals. [19]
One topic to understand before Friday: the market is still trading the capex story
Nebius has been explicit that scaling AI infrastructure is capital-intensive—and that investors should expect that.
From earlier company reporting and third-party recaps, Nebius guided to full-year 2025 revenue in a $500 million to $550 million range, described as a narrowing from a prior $450 million to $630 million range, with timing of capacity coming online influencing where within the range results may land. [20]
That framing matters because NBIS is often priced off a forward narrative: “capacity comes online → revenue ramps → operating leverage follows.” When the market worries about delays, power constraints, or higher financing costs, the multiple can compress quickly—even if demand remains strong. [21]
Positioning signals to watch into the open
Short interest and the potential for sharp moves
NBIS also sits in a setup that can amplify volatility: MarketBeat reported short interest of 29.23 million shares, around 11.61% of the public float, as of November 28, 2025. [22]
Separately, Fintel’s borrow-rate data showed relatively modest borrow fee levels in mid-December (for example, readings around 0.60 on Dec. 18 in the table shown), suggesting the stock can still be actively shorted without extreme borrow pressure—though that can change quickly if the tape squeezes. [23]
Technical context investors referenced today
MarketBeat noted the stock’s 50-day moving average well above the current price and cited a 200-day moving average closer to the current zone—an easy snapshot of how NBIS has been in a sharp pullback from a higher trading regime, even after Thursday’s bounce. [24]
What to know before the market opens Friday Dec 19 2025
Here’s the practical checklist traders and longer-term investors typically run for a high-volatility AI infrastructure stock like NBIS.
Track the full after-hours and premarket tone, not just the close
- NBIS closed at $78.09, but extended-hours quotes were higher earlier in the evening (Yahoo showed $79.26 at 6:18 p.m. EST). [25]
- Watch whether premarket trade holds those levels or fades—especially if broader AI and megacap tech futures cool off.
Expect higher tape noise because Friday is a triple-witching session
Friday, December 19, 2025 is a triple witching day (when multiple derivatives expire), which can increase volume and volatility and sometimes distort price action around key strikes. [26]
For NBIS specifically, that means the open can be “louder than usual,” and moves may not be purely fundamental in the first hour.
Macro calendar can still matter for NBIS because rates drive multiples
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows releases on Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, including Real Earnings for November 2025 and other items later in the morning. [27]
After Thursday’s inflation surprise (and increased rate-cut chatter), any follow-on move in Treasury yields can bleed directly into NBIS’ multiple—especially if the market re-prices risk across high-growth tech. [28]
Watch the “neocloud debt” narrative in headlines
The Seaport/MarketWatch framing is important because it’s not just about Nebius—it’s about the whole funding model for AI infrastructure companies: large upfront capex, then multi-year payback via contracted demand. If credit spreads widen again, the sector can sell off even on good product news. [29]
Check for company updates the market can trade instantly
Before the bell, scan for:
- Any new Nebius investor updates or SEC filings (even routine ones can move thinly traded premarket tape). [30]
- Follow-through coverage on AI Cloud 3.1 and customer adoption signals (the product narrative is central to this stock). [31]
Know the next major scheduled catalyst
If you’re looking past the next session, TipRanks lists Nebius’ next earnings report window in mid-February 2026 (it shows a confirmed date in that timeframe on its earnings page). That’s not tomorrow’s catalyst, but it anchors the next major “fundamentals reset” when guidance and capex expectations can be repriced. [32]
Bottom line for Friday’s open
Nebius ended Dec. 18 with a strong rebound and early after-hours strength, but the stock remains highly sensitive to macro rates, AI infrastructure sentiment, and the market’s appetite for funding capex-heavy growth stories. Today’s coverage reinforced the split view: meaningful upside implied by bullish targets, and meaningful downside risk if valuation and financing concerns return to the foreground. [33]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. nebius.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. nebius.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. 247wallst.com, 14. nebius.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.fool.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. fintel.io, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. www.britannica.com, 27. www.bls.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. nebius.com, 31. nebius.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com
