NEW YORK — U.S. stocks opened higher early Friday as technology shares extended a rebound from this week’s selloff, while Nike’s sharp drop capped gains for the Dow. At 9:32 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 87.38 points (0.21%) at 48,051.77, the S&P 500 rose 20.66 points (0.33%) to 6,795.42, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.27 points (0.51%) to 23,111.63, according to Reuters. [1]
The opening moves set up a busy day for traders: Friday is also a December “triple witching” session (a major derivatives-expiration event) that can drive outsized trading volume and fast sector rotations into the close. [2]
What’s driving the market at the opening bell
1) Tech stabilizes after AI jitters
A central theme into year-end has been whether the market’s biggest winners — particularly AI-linked mega-caps — can keep carrying the indexes amid rising scrutiny of massive infrastructure spending. Reuters noted that recent swings have been fueled by questions around AI buildout costs and shifting expectations for the Fed’s next moves. [3]
Strategists cited by MarketWatch also argued that some of December’s “wobbles” in momentum-heavy and AI-related favorites may be more seasonal positioning than a fundamental break in the AI narrative — pointing to typical year-end profit-taking and rebalancing dynamics. [4]
2) Nike drags on the Dow
Nike shares fell sharply after results highlighted pressure tied to China demand, weighing on Dow sentiment even as tech firms improved. [5]
3) The TikTok–Oracle deal adds fuel to the tape
A separate headline supporting certain tech names: TikTok owner ByteDance signed binding agreements to place control of TikTok’s U.S. operations into a new structure backed by a group of investors that includes Oracle, with ByteDance retaining a minority stake, Reuters reported. The agreement aims to address U.S. national security concerns around data protection and governance, and Oracle was positioned as a key security partner in the arrangement. [6]
Macro backdrop: “soft” inflation headlines meet shutdown skepticism
Traders are still digesting a key complication under the surface of this week’s “cooling inflation” narrative: the 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown created gaps and distortions in several high-profile economic releases.
Reuters reported that headline CPI slowed to 2.7% year over year in November, but monthly inflation rates weren’t published due to missing observations connected to the shutdown. Economists warned the report was unusually hard to interpret, with data collection delayed into a period when holiday discounts were more prevalent. [7]
Reuters’ “Morning Bid” column underscored the same issue, noting that while markets welcomed the softer inflation print — and highlighted core CPI at 2.6% year over year — many economists questioned the reliability of the number because of shutdown-related data collection issues. [8]
A Reuters Market Talk segment echoed the caution from professional money managers: the inflation reading “is probably distorted,” and the next report could look meaningfully different as data normalization resumes and policy cross-currents (including tariffs) continue to flow through the economy. [9]
Fed rate-cut expectations: optimism rises, but the “path” is the story
The market’s rate outlook has been shifting quickly. On Friday, Axios reported that Wall Street has grown more upbeat about rate cuts in 2026 following the softer inflation data, citing a JPMorgan strategist’s view that the S&P 500 could move past 8,000 in 2026 if conditions cooperate. [10]
But Reuters emphasized that the debate is not simply “cuts or no cuts” — it’s timing and confidence. With shutdown distortions clouding the data, investors are trying to determine what the Fed can safely infer about inflation and the labor market. [11]
“Triple witching” Friday: why volume could spike (and what it does not guarantee)
Beyond macro headlines, market structure is in focus.
Axios noted that Friday’s triple witching includes over $7 trillion in stock options, index options, and index futures expiring, with Citi estimating $7.1 trillion of equity options rolling off. The same day also overlaps with index and ETF rebalancing activity — and Axios highlighted that Carvana is being added to the S&P 500 in this rebalance cycle. [12]
The key takeaway for investors watching intraday action: high volume doesn’t automatically mean high volatility. Axios also cited research suggesting triple-witching days are often heavy in volume but can be comparatively muted in volatility because the event is well telegraphed. [13]
Stock-specific headlines traders are watching today
Nvidia: China export pathway back in play — with political strings attached
Nvidia was a major focal point Friday after Reuters reported that the Trump administration launched an inter-agency review that could determine whether Nvidia can ship its H200 AI chips to China — a potential policy shift from earlier restrictions. The review involves multiple departments, and Reuters reported Trump has publicly tied potential approval to the U.S. collecting a 25% fee on such sales. [14]
Oracle: TikTok deal momentum
Oracle’s move was supported by the ByteDance/TikTok transaction structure, in which Oracle and other investors would hold the majority stake while ByteDance retains a minority interest, according to Reuters. [15]
Micron: the AI demand “tell”
Micron’s upbeat outlook has been treated as a sentiment lever for the broader AI supply chain and contributed to the tech rebound narrative this week, even as investors keep questioning the pace and payback of AI infrastructure spending. [16]
Forecasts and year-end outlook: Santa rally hopes collide with December turbulence
Looking beyond today’s open, forecasters are split between seasonal optimism and late-year caution.
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” report said investors are watching two big drivers into year-end: AI spending scrutiny and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Even with December volatility, Reuters noted the S&P 500 is still on track for a solid 2025, though it has been softer so far this month. [17]
On the seasonal front, Reuters cited the “Santa Claus rally” pattern as an average 1.3% gain for the S&P 500 over the last five trading days of the year and the first two of January (with this year’s window beginning Wednesday and running through Jan. 5). [18]
A separate Reuters “Take Five” analysis added an important wrinkle: while December has historically been one of the stronger months for the S&P 500 over very long periods, recent decades have shown weaker average December performance, making the holiday period less of a “sure thing” than many retail investors assume. [19]
What to watch next
In the next week (and crucial for 2026 positioning):
Reuters flagged a cluster of upcoming U.S. data releases — including third-quarter GDP, durable goods, and consumer confidence — as markets try to see through shutdown-related noise and gauge whether rate cuts can resume (and how soon). [20]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.axios.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.axios.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.axios.com, 13. www.axios.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com
