GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) is back in the spotlight on Friday, December 19, 2025, after a turbulent week that tested one of the market’s most crowded themes: AI-driven power demand. In Friday trading, GE Vernova stock was around $652.86, up about 2% at the time of reporting, as investors weighed fresh analyst commentary against headline-driven volatility tied to the AI infrastructure narrative.
Below is what’s moving GE Vernova stock today, what Wall Street forecasts are signaling into 2026–2028, and which catalysts (and risks) matter most for readers tracking GEV for Google News and Discover.
Why GE Vernova stock is moving: the AI-power narrative meets an “efficiency shock”
GE Vernova’s midweek slide and bounce were not driven by a company-specific earnings miss or contract loss. Instead, coverage of the move pointed to sentiment around AI infrastructure and future electricity demand—and how quickly it can shift.
Barron’s reported that GE Vernova rebounded Thursday after a sharp prior-day drop, with the selloff tied to news around an AI chip start-up (Mythic) that aims to reduce AI energy consumption—raising fears (at least briefly) that AI could require less incremental power than investors had been pricing in. [1]
That concern has a logic chain many investors recognize: if AI models become dramatically more energy-efficient, the rate of growth in data center electricity demand could slow, and the “time-to-power” trade—gas turbines, grid equipment, power solutions—could cool. Whether that’s a real near-term threat is a separate question, but it’s a reminder that GEV is trading partly as an AI infrastructure proxy. [2]
What Mythic actually announced—and why it mattered to the market
Mythic publicly disclosed a $125 million oversubscribed funding round led by DCVC and positioned its analog processing approach as far more energy-efficient than current AI hardware in certain workloads. [3]
Even if the long-term implications are uncertain, the announcement was enough to trigger a fast, broad reaction across AI-adjacent names—highlighting how sensitive the “AI power buildout” story remains to any credible signal that the trajectory could bend. [4]
The bigger picture: GE Vernova is still selling “time to power” in a constrained grid world
GE Vernova’s core bull case hasn’t been subtle in 2025: the company sits at the intersection of gas power, grid electrification, and renewable integration, precisely when utilities and hyperscalers are racing to secure equipment and shorten interconnection timelines.
Reuters reported earlier this month that GE Vernova expected 80 gigawatts of signed combined-cycle gas turbine contracts by year-end and that the company had effectively sold out gas turbines through 2028, with limited availability for 2029. [5]
That matters for two reasons:
- It suggests demand is already “booked” well beyond the next couple of quarters.
- It reduces the sensitivity of near-term revenue to day-to-day sentiment shifts—though the stock can still swing sharply as expectations change. [6]
Utility Dive also described GE Vernova’s view that it could end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog stretching into 2029, alongside strong pricing dynamics for new reservations. [7]
The fundamental catalyst that still anchors the story: GE Vernova raised its multi-year outlook
A major reason analysts keep lifting targets is that GE Vernova’s own guidance has moved higher.
At its December investor update, GE Vernova raised key targets and shareholder return commitments, including:
- 2028 outlook: revenue of $52B and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin (up from prior targets of $45B and 14%)
- 2025–2028 cumulative free cash flow:at least $22B (up from at least $14B)
- Dividend: increased to $0.50/share quarterly, payable February 2, 2026
- Buyback authorization: increased to $10B from $6B (with $3.3B spent as of December 3, 2025)
- Gas turbine demand indicators:18 GW of contracts signed quarter-to-date and expectation of ~80 GW of combined slot reservations and backlog by year-end [8]
Reuters also reported GE Vernova’s 2026 guidance of $41B–$42B in revenue and $4.5B–$5.0B in free cash flow, a step-up from 2025 expectations, with LSEG-compiled consensus cited around $41.4B revenue for 2026. [9]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is saying into 2026
The analyst flow around GE Vernova has been unusually busy in mid-December, with multiple firms updating targets after the investor day and after the stock’s volatility spike.
Wolfe Research: “Peerperform,” but targets moved higher
Investing.com reported that Wolfe Research maintained a Peerperform rating while raising internal targets, including a DCF-based fair value estimate rising to about $665 by end-2026 and a longer-term scenario path that could reach $1,000 by the end of the decade under aggressive return assumptions. [10]
Wolfe also highlighted near-term attention on Q4 2025 gas turbine bookings, while expecting momentum to continue into 2026, consistent with management’s commentary around reservation/backlog strength. [11]
Jefferies upgrades to Buy: focus on pricing + services visibility
TipRanks’ repost of TheFly said Jefferies upgraded GE Vernova to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $815 from $736, citing improving outlook for Power with gas pricing and services visibility deeper into the 2030s. [12]
Baird raises target to $816: model update after investor event
Baird raised its price target to $816 from $706 and kept an Outperform rating, explicitly tying the update to changes following GE Vernova’s investor update. [13]
Wells Fargo moves to $831: higher Power + Electrification expectations
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $831 from $717 and maintained Overweight, pointing to higher revenue and margin expectations across Power and Electrification and lifting longer-term EBITDA and EPS estimates in the process. [14]
Morgan Stanley: “fast time to power” is the scarce asset
A Morgan Stanley note (as reposted in TheFly coverage) raised the price target to $822 from $710 and kept Overweight, framing GE Vernova as a favorite within clean tech for businesses that address scarcity and enable fast time-to-power for data centers. [15]
Reuters: multiple target hikes, including a Street-high call
Reuters reported that following the investor update, multiple brokerages raised targets and cited J.P. Morgan as setting a Street-high $1,000 price expectation at that time, while also noting the company’s turbine output trajectory and other operational drivers. [16]
Credit rating upgrades add another tailwind: Fitch and S&P move GE Vernova deeper into investment-grade territory
Beyond price targets, credit rating actions are also feeding the narrative that GE Vernova’s profitability and cash generation have improved enough to support a stronger balance sheet profile—important for a capital-intensive equipment maker.
- Fitch upgraded GE Vernova’s long-term issuer rating to BBB+ from BBB with a Positive outlook, citing operational execution and expanding EBITDA and free cash flow margins, while noting leverage expectations around the planned Prolec transaction. [17]
- Investing.com also summarized S&P’s earlier move to upgrade GE Vernova to BBB with a Positive outlook, projecting improving EBITDA margins and stronger cash flow generation over 2026–2027. [18]
In practice, stronger ratings can reduce financing friction for long-cycle manufacturing capacity, working capital, and bolt-on acquisitions—especially as GE Vernova leans into electrification demand. [19]
The Prolec GE acquisition: grid equipment scale for the AI-era buildout
One of the clearest strategic moves underpinning the electrification thesis is GE Vernova’s plan to buy the rest of Prolec GE, a transformer manufacturer.
Reuters reported GE Vernova would pay $5.28 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake, with funding split between cash and debt and an expected close by mid-2026 (subject to approvals), positioning the company to capture higher grid equipment demand tied to the AI boom. [20]
Both Fitch and S&P commentary around leverage and outlook explicitly referenced the Prolec deal as part of the balance sheet narrative. [21]
A less-discussed risk factor: rare-earth supply chain pressure (yttrium)
While demand headlines dominate, supply chain constraints can still matter—particularly in high-temperature turbine applications.
Reuters reported GE Vernova was working with the U.S. government to increase stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth used in specialty alloys and coatings, after China’s export controls contributed to shortages and large price increases outside China in 2025. [22]
For investors, the key takeaway is not that GE Vernova lacks supply today (Reuters cited inventory into 2026), but that materials availability and geopolitics remain live variables for turbine delivery schedules and margins. [23]
Another emerging storyline: GE Vernova’s fuel cell push for data centers
Beyond turbines and grid hardware, Barron’s highlighted GE Vernova’s move toward a fuel cell business aimed at the AI data center power market, with management describing commercialization timelines measured in 1–2 years for deployment and 2–3 years for scaled production, and emphasizing a manufacturing approach designed to improve cost and scale. [24]
Fuel cells are not yet a core earnings driver in consensus models, but the strategic implication is notable: GE Vernova appears to be building a portfolio designed to serve data centers across grid-tied and behind-the-meter / supplemental power configurations. [25]
GE Vernova stock forecast: what matters most for 2026–2028 (and what could break the thesis)
With the stock behaving like both an industrial compounder and an AI-adjacent momentum name, the forecast debate is less about whether demand exists and more about how durable margins and backlog quality will be.
Bullish drivers analysts keep circling
- Long-cycle backlog visibility: sold-out turbine slots through 2028 and strong contract/backlog commentary [26]
- Management’s raised 2026–2028 financial trajectory: higher revenue, higher margin targets, and higher cumulative free cash flow expectations [27]
- Electrification “supercycle” exposure: grid equipment orders tied to hyperscalers and broader modernization demand [28]
- Capital returns: bigger dividend and expanded buyback authorization supporting the shareholder return narrative [29]
- Ratings upgrades: improving credit profile lowers perceived risk and can support valuation [30]
Key risks to watch (especially after this week’s AI-efficiency scare)
- AI demand uncertainty and “efficiency shocks”: the Mythic headline shows how quickly markets can reprice the incremental power story [31]
- Permitting and infrastructure bottlenecks: Reuters noted state/local permitting and pipeline constraints as obstacles for new gas plants, which can affect project timing [32]
- Supply chain and input costs: rare-earth constraints (like yttrium) can introduce timing or cost tradeoffs [33]
- Execution across segments: GE Vernova’s long-term targets assume continued operational improvement and scaling; any slippage can hit sentiment quickly in a premium-valued stock [34]
What to watch next for GE Vernova stock (GEV)
For readers tracking GEV into year-end and early 2026, the next “tell” likely won’t be a single headline—it will be a cluster of operational signals:
- Order pace and backlog quality in Power and Electrification (especially anything tied to hyperscalers and grid expansion). [35]
- Follow-through on 2026 guidance (revenue, free cash flow, and segment margins). [36]
- Capital return execution: buyback pace and confirmation around the higher dividend (payable February 2, 2026, per company disclosure). [37]
- Progress on Prolec GE closing (mid-2026 expectation) and any integration/benefit framing. [38]
- Any updates on next-gen solutions (including fuel cell milestones) that broaden the data center power playbook. [39]
Bottom line
As of December 19, 2025, the GE Vernova stock story is still dominated by a powerful mix of booked demand, raised long-term targets, and a market that increasingly treats GEV as a liquid way to express views on AI-era electricity infrastructure. [40]
This week’s sharp drawdown and quick rebound underscored a key reality for investors and readers alike: even when the fundamentals look long-cycle, the trading tape can still be headline-driven, especially when AI hardware developments threaten to rewrite the “power demand” narrative overnight. [41]
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.utilitydive.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.gevernova.com, 28. www.utilitydive.com, 29. www.gevernova.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.gevernova.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.gevernova.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.barrons.com, 40. www.gevernova.com, 41. www.barrons.com
