Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) finished Friday’s session (Dec. 19, 2025) essentially flat, closing at $176.29 and then ticking slightly higher in after-hours trading into the evening. [1]
With the U.S. stock market closed over the weekend, the next regular session is Monday, Dec. 22, 2025—and TXN holders are heading into that open with a familiar tug-of-war: Wall Street’s improving optimism around 2026 demand versus ongoing concerns that analog-heavy chipmakers may benefit less directly from the AI capex boom than headline semiconductor winners. [2]
Below is what happened after the bell on Dec. 19, and what matters most before the next open.
TXN after-hours: where Texas Instruments stock stands tonight
End of regular trading (4:00 p.m. ET):
After-hours (as of ~8:00 p.m. ET):
- TXN traded around $176.4–$176.5, a modest uptick from the cash close. [6]
Nothing in tonight’s tape suggests a single blockbuster headline hit after 4 p.m. ET. Instead, the stock is moving in small increments while investors digest (1) a new analyst price-target change today, and (2) the market’s late-December shift back toward tech and semis—along with the mechanical churn tied to year-end derivatives and positioning. [7]
The biggest TXN-specific headline from today: Truist lifts its target (but stays cautious)
The most direct, stock-specific note dated Dec. 19 was from Truist, which raised its price target on Texas Instruments to $195 from $175 and maintained a Hold rating. [8]
Why this matters for Monday:
- A target increase is a sentiment tailwind, especially in a week where TXN has also faced high-profile skepticism from at least one major bank. [9]
- But Truist staying at Hold signals the upgrade is not a full-throated “buy the breakout” call—more like an acknowledgement that valuation and the 2026 setup look better than they did, without declaring the near-term risk set is gone. [10]
Truist’s framing also reinforces a key narrative for the broader semiconductor space: AI infrastructure remains the magnet for multiple expansion, while “diversified analog semis” (a bucket that includes TI) may see less estimate upside as the market looks into 2026. [11]
The counterweight investors are still pricing: Goldman’s “limited AI leverage” view
Even though it wasn’t today’s note, the Goldman Sachs downgrade earlier this week remains a major overhang in how many traders are thinking about TXN into year-end.
Goldman’s core argument (as described by Investing.com and in Reuters-sourced headlines carried by TradingView) was that Texas Instruments has less leverage to the next phase of the semiconductor upcycle—even if AI spending keeps climbing—while company-specific factors like inventory and capacity/capital choices could mute margin and earnings expansion relative to peers. [12]
This is the central tension for Monday’s open:
- Bull case (implied by target lifts like Truist’s): 2026 demand improves, the cycle normalizes, and TXN—an analog bellwether—participates with a steadier, high-quality earnings stream. [13]
- Bear case (Goldman-style framing): the upturn may be real, but TI’s earnings “torque” could lag due to the cost structure of its manufacturing strategy and less direct participation in the AI gold rush. [14]
The market doesn’t need a new downgrade on Monday for this to matter—these views can keep TXN range-bound even on strong “risk-on semiconductor” days.
Manufacturing expansion is back in focus: Sherman “SM1” begins production
A second major storyline—highly relevant to the Goldman-vs.-Truist debate—is Texas Instruments’ aggressive U.S. manufacturing buildout.
TI announced this week that it began production at its newest 300mm semiconductor manufacturing facility in Sherman, Texas, describing it as a milestone in the company’s “long-term” U.S. capacity expansion. TI said the site can ramp to “tens of millions” of chips per day, and framed the broader plan as more than $60 billion in U.S. manufacturing investment across seven fabs in Texas and Utah, including up to $40 billion planned for the Sherman site over time. [15]
For TXN stock, this is a double-edged catalyst:
Why investors like it
- More control over supply and scale, and a long runway in power and embedded chips that show up in everything from industrial gear to vehicles and data centers. [16]
Why skeptics worry
- A manufacturing-heavy strategy can drive high fixed costs (depreciation, underutilization risk) if demand recovers more slowly than hoped—exactly the type of concern highlighted in bearish research. [17]
This is why the Sherman milestone can be read as either “future-proofing” or “near-term margin pressure,” depending on which part of the cycle you think we’re in.
A quieter but important industry signal today: analog chip pricing may be firming
One of the more actionable “read-through” items dated Dec. 19 came from TrendForce’s coverage of Analog Devices (ADI) planning a 10%–30% price increase starting Feb. 1, 2026—and noting that the move follows Texas Instruments’ reported broad price hike in August (also characterized as roughly 10%–30% across a very large catalog). [18]
For Texas Instruments shareholders, pricing is crucial because TI’s analog business often trades like a “quality compounder” when it has:
- stable demand,
- decent utilization,
- and the ability to defend ASPs (average selling prices).
If competitors are lifting price in early 2026, it can be interpreted as a sign of improving pricing discipline or cost pass-through—both relevant for how investors model TI’s margins in a recovery. [19]
Where consensus forecasts stand tonight: targets cluster around the low-$190s to ~$200+
There’s a meaningful spread in “consensus” snapshots across data vendors, but the takeaway is consistent: analysts are not uniformly bearish, and most published averages still sit above the current mid-$170s stock price.
Two widely followed aggregations tonight show:
- StockAnalysis: consensus rating “Buy”; average price target $200.75 (low $125, high $255). [20]
- MarketBeat: consensus rating “Hold”; average price target $191.49 (low $125, high $245). [21]
Why the difference? Methodologies and the “most recent” rating included vary by platform, but both views underscore the same point: the street is split, not one-directional—and that split can cap momentum unless a clear macro or company catalyst breaks the tie. [22]
Market backdrop into the next open: tech bounced, but year-end positioning can distort signals
On Friday, U.S. equities moved higher with tech regaining footing and semiconductors rebounding as a group. [23]
But Dec. 19 also carried a structural warning label: it was a major options expiration (“triple witching”) day, with reporting that more than $7 trillion in options-related contracts were expiring—conditions that can amplify volume and create moves that don’t always reflect pure fundamentals. [24]
For a mega-cap-ish, heavily institutionally owned semiconductor name like TXN, that matters because:
- Friday closes can be “pinned” by options flows,
- and Monday opens can see a small reset as positioning clears.
What to know before the next U.S. market open (Monday, Dec. 22, 2025)
A practical checklist for TXN heading into Monday:
1) Remember: “tomorrow” is a weekend—next open is Monday, Dec. 22
U.S. markets are closed Saturday and Sunday, so the next time TXN can trade in the regular session is Monday morning. [25]
2) Watch extended-hours liquidity (it can exaggerate moves)
After-hours trading is thinner than the regular session; small headlines can move price more than usual, then fade at the open.
As of ~8 p.m. ET Friday, TXN was only modestly above the close, suggesting no major late-breaking shock. [26]
3) Monday’s economic calendar looks light—but the week is not
MarketWatch’s calendar shows no major U.S. economic releases scheduled for Monday, Dec. 22. [27]
However, multiple previews point to a holiday-shortened week where attention shifts quickly to releases and events later in the week (e.g., GDP updates, durable goods, consumer confidence, and Fed-related readouts depending on the schedule source). [28]
4) Know the holiday trading schedule: early close is coming
With Christmas week ahead, it’s not just fundamentals—market hours can change liquidity and volatility.
- U.S. equities markets are scheduled to close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, and be closed on Thursday, Dec. 25. [29]
Shortened sessions can change how TXN trades, especially if the stock is near common “round-number” levels where options activity clusters.
5) Track the two narratives that can move TXN fastest
Going into Monday, the quickest way to understand any TXN move is to ask which narrative is winning:
- AI-led semiconductor strength (which tends to lift the whole group, but may favor AI-exposed names) [30]
- Analog/industrial recovery (where TI is a bellwether, but investors remain sensitive to utilization and inventory debates) [31]
If semis rally broadly and TXN lags, that’s usually the market voting “AI winners first.” If TXN starts to outperform on quiet AI days, that can suggest investors are leaning harder into an analog-cycle turn.
Bottom line for TXN after the bell on Dec. 19
Texas Instruments stock heads into the weekend with only a slight after-hours uptick, but with an unusually clear push-pull setup for the next open:
- Supportive: Truist’s price-target raise to $195 and ongoing attention on TI’s U.S. manufacturing ramp. [32]
- Cautionary: the lingering impact of the “limited AI leverage” critique and worries about how capacity and inventory choices translate into margins as the cycle turns. [33]
- Actionable read-through: signs that analog pricing could be firming into 2026, which is important for TXN margin math. [34]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. ph.investing.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. ph.investing.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. ph.investing.com, 15. www.ti.com, 16. www.ti.com, 17. ph.investing.com, 18. www.trendforce.com, 19. www.trendforce.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.axios.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. www.spglobal.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. ph.investing.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. ph.investing.com, 34. www.trendforce.com
