SAN JOSE / NEW YORK — Friday, Dec. 19, 2025: Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) finished the regular session essentially flat and then ticked modestly lower in extended trading, with investors weighing a fresh AI-video push against broader market dynamics that included a high-volume “triple witching” expiration day.
Adobe stock after the bell: the latest read on price action
Adobe shares closed at $355.86 on Friday and were last indicated around $355.42 in after-hours trading (down about 0.12% from the regular-session close, as of 5:23 p.m. ET). [1]
The muted after-hours move is notable given how much attention Adobe drew today on the AI front—and it lines up with the broader tone of Friday’s market tape, which was shaped by derivatives expirations and rebalancing flows.
The key Adobe headline today: a multi-year Runway partnership for next-gen AI video
The dominant Adobe story circulating across financial and tech coverage today is the company’s multi-year strategic partnership with Runway, an AI video startup, designed to plug advanced generative video models into Adobe’s creator workflows. [2]
Here’s what matters for investors:
- Exclusive early access to Runway’s Gen‑4.5 inside Adobe Firefly. Adobe says Runway’s Gen‑4.5 is available in the Adobe Firefly app “for a limited time” and that Adobe is Runway’s preferred API creativity partner. [3]
- A limited “unlimited generations” window. Adobe states Firefly Pro customers get unlimited generations until Dec. 22. [4]
- Workflow integration is the real bet. Adobe is positioning this partnership as a way to move from “cool demos” to production-ready video pipelines that can flow into tools pros already use (Firefly → editing → Premiere / After Effects). [5]
- Model choice is part of the strategy. Adobe continues to emphasize Firefly as a hub for both Adobe models and partner models, alongside a creator-focused stance on training and usage. [6]
Adobe’s CTO framed the moment succinctly, saying that as AI transforms video production, pros are turning to Adobe’s ecosystem “from Firefly to Premiere to After Effects.” [7]
Why the Runway news matters for Adobe stock (ADBE)
For markets, the significance isn’t just “Adobe adds another model.” It’s what that implies about Adobe’s plan to win the next phase of creative software:
- Defending the Creative Cloud moat in the AI era. Generative video is quickly becoming a competitive battleground. Adobe’s advantage—if it can execute—is the end-to-end workflow and entrenched professional user base. [8]
- Monetization questions remain front and center. Investors have been pressing Adobe on how quickly AI features translate into durable pricing power, expansion, and recurring revenue growth. That debate has been a consistent theme in post-earnings commentary. [9]
The broader market backdrop today: tech rebound + triple witching volume
Adobe didn’t trade in a vacuum on Friday.
- U.S. equities rose, supported by a rebound in technology shares and continued investor focus on AI-linked names. [10]
- Friday was also a quarterly “triple witching” session, when large piles of stock options, index options, and futures expire—typically producing very heavy volume that doesn’t always translate into big directional moves. [11]
That combination—tech positivity plus mechanically driven flow—helps explain why Adobe’s day and after-hours move could look restrained even while headlines were busy.
Where forecasts and Wall Street targets stand heading into next week
Adobe’s own outlook: FY2026 targets remain a core anchor for the bull vs. bear debate
Adobe’s most recent guidance (released with Q4/FY2025 results) points to:
- FY2026 revenue target of $25.90B–$26.10B
- FY2026 non-GAAP EPS target of $23.30–$23.50
- Total Adobe ending ARR growth targeted at ~10.2% year over year [12]
The company also posted Q4 FY2025 revenue of $6.19B and highlighted strong cash generation and buybacks in FY2025. [13]
Street targets: consensus still points above the current price, but opinions are split
Consensus targets vary by source, but one widely tracked snapshot shows:
- An average 12‑month price target around $417.93 (with a wide range from roughly $280 on the low end to $540 on the high end). [14]
Recent post-earnings analyst actions have included both trims and reaffirmations, reflecting ongoing tension between AI opportunity and competitive risk / execution questions:
- Citi recently raised its target to $387 while keeping a Neutral rating. [15]
- KeyBanc reiterated an Underweight stance with a $310 target in a note earlier this week. [16]
- BMO reduced its target to $400 while maintaining an Outperform rating. [17]
Takeaway: the market is not treating Adobe like a “simple AI winner.” It’s treating it like a high-quality platform company that must prove AI-driven expansion without eroding its pricing model.
What to know before the next market open
1) “Tomorrow” is Saturday — the next U.S. stock market session is Monday, Dec. 22
Because Dec. 20 is a weekend, there’s no regular U.S. equities session tomorrow. That shifts focus to headlines and positioning into Monday’s open.
2) Watch for follow-through (or skepticism) on the Runway announcement
Partnership announcements can trade two ways:
- Bull case: Adobe is tightening its grip on professional creative workflows by integrating best-in-class partner models and making Firefly a serious AI production layer. [18]
- Bear case: Partnerships excite users but don’t automatically answer monetization, competitive threats, or margin trajectory—especially in AI-heavy workflows. [19]
3) Triple witching is behind us; Monday can reveal “true” positioning
With Dec. 19 marked as a triple witching date on the NYSE trading calendar, Friday’s flows may not reflect “clean” discretionary positioning. Monday’s trade can matter more for direction. [20]
4) Macro calendar check: Monday is quiet, but the holiday week isn’t
One clean detail for traders: no major U.S. economic reports are scheduled for Monday, Dec. 22, according to a widely followed calendar listing. [21]
That doesn’t mean markets will be calm—liquidity can be thinner into the holidays, and investors are already debating whether a late‑December “Santa rally” can take hold. [22]
5) Holiday trading hours: plan for a shortened week
The U.S. market is scheduled to close early on Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and to be closed on Dec. 25. [23]
Lower liquidity weeks can amplify single-stock reactions, especially in large-cap tech names.
6) The next major Adobe catalyst is still earnings — but the calendar is set
Adobe’s investor relations calendar lists the Q1 FY2026 earnings call for March 12, 2026. [24]
Between now and then, investors will likely track signals of AI traction through product adoption, enterprise workflow integration, and any incremental disclosures that clarify how AI features translate into ARR and margins.
Bottom line for Adobe stock (ADBE) heading into Monday
Adobe closed Friday near unchanged and eased slightly after hours, but the real story is strategic: the company is pushing harder into AI video creation by bringing Runway’s Gen‑4.5 into Firefly while emphasizing pro-grade workflows across Creative Cloud. [25]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. news.adobe.com, 3. news.adobe.com, 4. news.adobe.com, 5. news.adobe.com, 6. news.adobe.com, 7. news.adobe.com, 8. news.adobe.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.axios.com, 12. www.adobe.com, 13. www.adobe.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. news.adobe.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.nyse.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.adobe.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com
