Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) has spent much of 2025 behaving like a classic gold-leverage trade: when bullion sprints, miners with scale, liquidity and a credible growth pipeline tend to get pulled along like iron filings to a magnet. But heading into the final stretch of the year, the story has become more nuanced—less “gold up = stock up,” and more about execution, costs, capex, and how quickly the company can translate a stronger gold price into sustainable free cash flow.
As of the latest market close, Northern Star shares finished at A$25.82 on 19 December 2025, down 3.37% on the day, after trading between A$25.74 and A$26.71. [1]
Below is a roundup of the most material company updates, market-moving headlines, and the current state of analyst forecasts as of 20 December 2025, plus the key catalysts investors are watching into early 2026.
Why Northern Star Resources stock is in focus right now
Northern Star is one of Australia’s largest gold producers with a portfolio spanning Western Australia (Kalgoorlie and Yandal) and Alaska (Pogo)—a footprint that gives it diversification, scale, and multiple “levers” to pull: mine sequencing, mill expansion, exploration conversion, and (increasingly) power strategy. [2]
The near-term share price action, however, is still tightly tethered to bullion sentiment. In late December, Reuters noted weakness across Australian gold equities as bullion edged lower, with Northern Star among the sector names moving down on the session. [3]
At the same time, the medium-term setup for gold remains unusually supportive by historical standards—central bank buying, geopolitical risk, and shifting investor behavior have kept forecasts elevated. Reuters reported gold has surged about 64% in 2025, hitting a record US$4,381/oz, and multiple major institutions see US$5,000/oz as plausible during 2026. [4]
For Northern Star shareholders, the question becomes: how much of that macro tailwind can the company keep after costs, royalties, hedging, and a heavy investment cycle?
Current Northern Star news: exploration, power strategy, and operational execution
1) December 2025 Exploration Update: A$225m FY26 program, with a heavy “near-mine” tilt
On 5 December 2025, Northern Star published an exploration update outlining its FY26 exploration plan. The headline number: A$225 million of exploration spend for FY26, with ~73% directed to in-mine growth and ~27% to regional exploration. [5]
The company also spelled out how exploration dollars are allocated across the portfolio (by percentage): Kalgoorlie (42%), Yandal (25%), Pogo (25%), and Pilbara (8%). [6]
Beyond budgets, the strategic message is clear: Northern Star is prioritizing reserve life and production certainty—the kind of “boring” mining work that often matters more than splashy discovery headlines when you’re already a large producer trying to compound value.
2) Kalgoorlie renewable energy project: environmental approval process and a 25-year PPA
A separate headline with longer-term implications landed earlier in December: Reuters reported Northern Star has applied for environmental approval for a large-scale Kalgoorlie regional renewable energy project designed to power its Kalgoorlie consolidated gold mines.
Key details reported by Reuters include: 366MW/330MWh project capacity, made up of 256MW wind, 110MW solar, plus 140MW/300MWh of battery storage, underpinned by a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Zenith Energy, which would fund, build, own and operate the renewable facilities. Reuters also reported a joint venture between the parties for 120MW thermal generation plus transmission infrastructure under a 25-year agreement. [7]
For miners, power isn’t just ESG window dressing—it can be a meaningful cost line, a reliability issue, and a strategic hedge. Over time, cheaper and more stable energy can translate into lower all-in sustaining costs (AISC), especially at scale.
3) September 2025 Quarterly (Q1 FY26): production, costs, and a notable early-December disruption
Northern Star’s most recent quarterly operating snapshot (released 23 October 2025, for the September quarter) reported:
- Gold sold: 381,055 oz
- AISC: A$2,522/oz
- Group underlying free cash flow: A$14m (with net mine cash flow A$183m)
- Net cash: A$616m
- Cash and bullion: A$1,511m
- FY26 guidance maintained: 1.70–1.85Moz gold sold; AISC A$2,300–2,700/oz [8]
One near-term flag from management: the company said it experienced operational disruptions at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie early in the December quarter, with an estimated impact of up to ~20koz of gold sales in the second quarter (December quarter). [9]
That’s not necessarily thesis-breaking for a producer of Northern Star’s size—but it’s exactly the kind of operational variability that can drive quarter-to-quarter volatility and influence how the market prices “execution risk” during a heavy capex period.
Financial position and shareholder returns: what the latest results say
FY25 financial results: record free cash flow, dividend strength, and buyback completion
In its FY25 financial results (year ended 30 June 2025), Northern Star highlighted:
- Underlying free cash flow: A$536m
- Underlying EBITDA: A$3.5b
- Underlying NPAT: A$1.4b (A$1.19 per share)
- Net cash: A$1.0b
- Liquidity: A$3.4b
- FY25 dividend: total 55.0 cents per share, including a 30.0c fully franked final dividend
- A$300m on-market share buyback completed (average price A$11.04; 27.2m shares purchased) [10]
Those numbers help explain why many investors treat Northern Star as a “quality gold major” rather than a speculative miner: the business has demonstrated an ability to convert good gold markets into tangible shareholder returns—even while investing for growth.
Hedging: a quiet but important swing factor for 2026 margins
Gold miners often get punished when they hedge heavily into a bull market, because hedges cap upside precisely when investors want maximum torque to spot prices.
Northern Star’s stance has been shifting. In its June 2025 quarterly report, the company said it updated its hedging policy and removed mandatory hedge commitments, enabling an ongoing wind-down of the hedge book. It also stated no hedge commitments had been added over the prior three quarters. [11]
The same report disclosed that total hedging commitments at 30 June 2025 were 1.433Moz at an average price of A$3,286/oz, with deliveries spread across half-year periods into 2028. [12]
Why it matters now: if spot gold stays elevated through 2026, the pace at which hedges roll off can materially affect realised pricing and cash margins.
A December 2025 market analysis on Livewire also argued that expiring hedges could act as a tailwind for realised prices into 2026, while noting the market’s attention on capex and Kalgoorlie expansion risk. [13]
Growth pipeline: Hemi in the Pilbara and the “next engine” question
A big strategic step for Northern Star was the acquisition of De Grey Mining and its Hemi Development Project in Western Australia’s Pilbara.
On its asset page, Northern Star describes Hemi as a large-scale development project and states it acquired the project via a court-approved scheme of arrangement on 5 May 2025. The company also lists Mineral Resources of 11,174koz and Ore Reserves of 6,002koz for Hemi (as shown on the page). [14]
For investors, Hemi is both:
- a potential long-life production base that could reshape the company’s medium-term profile, and
- a capex and execution challenge that competes for capital with other priorities (including Kalgoorlie).
That tension—growth ambition vs. capital discipline—sits at the heart of the current Northern Star debate.
Gold outlook and commodity forecasts: the macro tailwind is still strong
Northern Star is not gold itself; it’s a business that mines gold at a cost, pays royalties and taxes, and reinvests heavily. Still, the gold price sets the ceiling and the floor for sentiment.
Recent forecasts and data points include:
- Reuters reported multiple major institutions and consultancies see gold reaching US$5,000/oz in 2026, following a 2025 surge that set a record near US$4,381/oz. [15]
- Goldman Sachs (per Reuters) sees gold at US$4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, citing structurally strong central bank demand and support from U.S. rate cuts. [16]
- Reuters also reported Australia revised its expected resources export earnings upward, largely due to gold’s run, and cited a government view that gold prices could remain around US$4,000/oz over 2026 (before easing later). [17]
For Northern Star, higher gold prices can lift revenue quickly—but the market will keep pressuring management to demonstrate cost control and project delivery, not just revenue upside.
Northern Star (ASX:NST) analyst forecasts: consensus targets and what they imply
Analyst targets vary depending on assumptions about gold prices, sustaining costs, capital intensity, and the timing of major projects.
Here’s the current snapshot from widely followed aggregators:
- Investing.com lists a consensus built from 16 analysts, with an average price target around A$28.92 (high ~A$35.15; low ~A$13.70) and a consensus label of “Buy” (with a mix of buy/hold/sell recommendations shown on the page). [18]
- TradingView shows an average target around A$30.21 (with a higher and lower estimate range), based on the analyst set it compiles. [19]
- Fintel lists an average one-year target around A$29.17, with a wider high/low range shown on its page, alongside market cap and other summary stats. [20]
With the stock last closing around A$25.82, that cluster of targets implies roughly low-double-digit upside on average—but the spread between bullish and bearish cases is wide, suggesting the market sees meaningful uncertainty around execution and the gold price path. [21]
Some valuation models are more cautious. GuruFocus, for example, lists a GF Value estimate around A$23.19 versus a share price of A$25.82 (its framework labels the stock modestly overvalued on that date). [22]
Other market chatter: block trades and takeover speculation
Two themes that often appear when a stock becomes large, liquid, and widely owned are (1) big secondary selldowns and (2) takeover talk.
Australian media has reported that Gold Fields may look to sell a Northern Star stake connected to its Gold Road transaction, and that a large block trade process was discussed in that context. [23]
Separately, Australian media has also reported takeover speculation involving Northern Star and larger global gold producers. [24]
These stories can move a share price in the short run, but they’re not fundamentals until they become filings and firm offers. Treat them as sentiment signals, not a base-case investment thesis.
Key catalysts for Northern Star stock in early 2026
If you’re tracking Northern Star into the new year, the market’s calendar is straightforward:
- December 2025 quarterly results: scheduled for 22 January 2026
- FY26 half-year results: scheduled for 12 February 2026 [25]
Beyond dates, the most important “live” catalysts are:
- December quarter performance (including whether the early-quarter disruptions materially affected outcomes) [26]
- Progress and spending discipline across major growth projects (the market generally rewards delivery, and punishes surprises) [27]
- Exploration conversion—turning drill success into mine plan value (reserve upgrades, higher-grade zones, life extensions) [28]
- Energy cost strategy at Kalgoorlie, as the renewables project moves through approvals and development steps [29]
- Gold price durability and how much upside is retained after royalties, inflation, and hedging roll-off [30]
Risks that matter (even in a booming gold market)
Even with supportive gold forecasts, mining remains a business where reality enjoys throwing rocks—sometimes literally—at your spreadsheet.
The risks most relevant to Northern Star right now include:
Operational variability and interruptions. The company has already pointed to disruptions early in the December quarter at two operations. [31]
Cost pressure and capex intensity. Northern Star’s guidance embeds a wide AISC band and significant growth capital, reflecting both inflation and the scale of the build program. [32]
Project execution. Big projects can create value, but delays and overruns can also erase the benefits of a higher gold price.
Gold price reversals. Reuters has highlighted that gold’s surge is historically unusual; if broader risk-off dynamics force liquidation, even “safe havens” can sell off in the short term. [33]
Hedging and realised price. Northern Star is unwinding hedges, but the remaining hedge book and timing still influence near-term revenue capture. [34]
Bottom line: Northern Star is leveraged to gold—but priced on execution
Northern Star Resources stock sits at an interesting junction as of 20 December 2025:
- The macro backdrop for gold is strong, with major banks and analysts discussing US$4,500–US$5,000 scenarios in 2026 and Goldman projecting US$4,900 by late 2026. [35]
- The company is financially resilient by miner standards, and FY25 results showed meaningful cash generation and shareholder returns. [36]
- But the market is focused on delivery: operational stability, the weight of capex, and the timeline for growth projects to turn into lower costs and higher free cash flow. [37]
That’s why current price targets imply moderate upside on average, but with a wide dispersion: the bull case assumes gold stays high and projects land cleanly; the bear case assumes either a gold mean reversion, execution slips, or margin compression from costs and investment needs. [38]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. fintel.io, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.nsrltd.com, 6. www.nsrltd.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.nsrltd.com, 9. www.nsrltd.com, 10. www.nsrltd.com, 11. www.nsrltd.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.livewiremarkets.com, 14. www.nsrltd.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. fintel.io, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.theaustralian.com.au, 24. www.theaustralian.com.au, 25. www.nsrltd.com, 26. www.nsrltd.com, 27. www.nsrltd.com, 28. www.nsrltd.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.nsrltd.com, 32. www.nsrltd.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.nsrltd.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.nsrltd.com, 37. www.nsrltd.com, 38. www.investing.com
