Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) is closing out 2025 with momentum that few large-cap miners have matched. In the last completed U.S. session (Friday, December 19, 2025), Newmont shares finished at $101.29, rising 1.96% and ending the day just 0.82% below their 52‑week high of $102.13 (set on December 12). Trading activity also jumped: volume hit roughly 27.6 million shares, far above the 50‑day average of about 10.6 million, a sign that institutions and larger traders remain highly engaged in the name into year-end. [1]
The bigger story behind the rally is a powerful macro tailwind: gold’s ongoing strength, paired with Newmont’s operational leverage and a company-wide effort to streamline assets, reduce debt, and return capital to shareholders. With major banks now publishing 2026 gold forecasts in the $4,800–$4,900/oz range, investors are asking a simple question: after a spectacular run, does Newmont still have room to climb—or has the market already priced in the best-case scenario? [2]
Newmont stock price action on 20 December 2025: what investors are reacting to
Because December 20, 2025 is a Saturday, U.S. equities aren’t trading today. The latest “today” read for NEM is therefore a snapshot of Friday’s close and this week’s positioning. Newmont’s ability to hold near its yearly high while seeing a volume surge suggests two things: (1) profit-taking has not overwhelmed demand, and (2) the market is still actively repricing gold exposure as 2025 ends. [3]
Screeners and market roundups are also flagging Newmont as one of the mining names to watch right now—alongside other large and liquid “real economy” plays—reflecting the fact that NEM has become one of the most visible ways for generalist investors to express a view on precious metals without moving into smaller, less liquid miners. [4]
The gold backdrop: why 2026 forecasts matter for Newmont stock
Newmont’s earnings power typically expands dramatically when bullion prices rise faster than mining costs—because much of a miner’s cost base is relatively fixed in the short run. And Wall Street banks are not forecasting a quick fade in gold strength:
- Morgan Stanley projected gold at $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, while also noting it expects slower gains in 2026 versus prior momentum and discussing the role of rate cuts and the dollar in sustaining the trend. [5]
- Goldman Sachs published a base-case view for gold rising to $4,900/oz by December 2026, citing structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts (with spot gold referenced around $4,334.93/oz at the time of its note). [6]
For Newmont shareholders, those forecasts matter because they shape expectations for margins, free cash flow, and capital returns—especially if gold remains elevated through Newmont’s leadership transition and into the next reporting cycle.
Newmont’s fundamentals: guidance, costs, and what Q3 signaled about cash flow
In its third-quarter 2025 update, Newmont declared a $0.25 per share dividend payable December 22, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 26, 2025—a concrete, near-term catalyst for income-focused investors. [7]
The company also highlighted aggressive balance-sheet work and shareholder returns, including:
- $823 million returned through buybacks and dividends since the prior earnings call
- $3.3 billion of repurchases executed and settled to date (with $2.7 billion remaining under previously authorized programs)
- $2 billion of debt reduction through a tender offer, ending the quarter in a near‑zero net debt position, with $5.6 billion cash and $9.6 billion total liquidity
- A Moody’s credit rating upgrade to A3 with a stable outlook [8]
On the operating side, Newmont’s 2025 guidance framework underscores both the upside and the trade-offs of being a mega-cap miner. The company’s 2025 outlook (with a stated +/-5% range) included attributable gold production of ~5.9 million ounces, alongside cost guidance that puts all-in sustaining cost pressure in context: gold AISC around $1,630/oz (company-wide). [9]
However, management’s message hasn’t been “straight up and to the right.” Reuters highlighted that Newmont—despite benefiting from record gold—also cautioned that Q4 free cash flow would be weaker due to higher spending, and said 2026 production is expected toward the lower end of 2025’s forecast. [10]
That tension—record commodity pricing vs. the operational reality of sustaining/expansion capex and variable grades—sits at the center of the 2026 debate for NEM.
Portfolio reset and capital recycling: divestitures, equity sales, and the latest Fuerte transaction
Newmont’s post-Newcrest strategy has been heavily focused on simplification: selling non-core assets, monetizing minority stakes, and redeploying proceeds toward balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns.
A key milestone came earlier in 2025 when Newmont announced it had completed the non-core divestiture program (initially announced in early 2024) with the closing of its Akyem (Ghana) and Porcupine (Canada) transactions. In that update, Newmont said it had received more than $2.5 billion in cash proceeds to date in 2025, and outlined expectations that total announced divestiture proceeds could reach up to $4.3 billion (including non-core operations and other investments). [11]
The company also pursued equity monetizations tied to divestitures. Newmont announced agreements to sell shares received in Greatland and Discovery for approximately $470 million in aggregate cash consideration (net of taxes and commissions), positioning this as part of its broader capital allocation priorities. [12]
Most recently—and highly relevant to “today’s” news cycle—Newmont disclosed on December 18, 2025 that it entered agreements to sell 6,773,641 common shares of Fuerte Metals at C$4.35 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of about C$29.5 million, reducing Newmont’s stake from roughly 24% to about 19.5% after the transaction (expected to complete within about a week, subject to closing conditions). [13]
Reuters also reported earlier in 2025 that Newmont sold its entire stake in Orla Mining for about $439 million, framing it as part of Newmont’s ongoing divestiture and cash-raising push following the Newcrest acquisition. [14]
Restructuring and leadership transition: why governance is part of the stock story now
Beyond gold prices and portfolio moves, management execution is becoming a bigger part of the NEM narrative—particularly with a CEO transition days away.
Reuters reported that Newmont’s restructuring following the Newcrest acquisition has impacted 16% of jobs, involving eliminations, unfilled vacancies, and role changes tied to internal efforts to streamline and integrate operations. The report also referenced Newmont’s continued review of its portfolio and its interest in maximizing output from the Nevada Gold Mines venture with Barrick. [15]
Meanwhile, Newmont has already announced a landmark leadership change: COO Natascha Viljoen will become CEO beginning January 1, 2026, as Tom Palmer steps down on December 31, 2025 (and is expected to serve as a strategic adviser into early 2026). Reuters also noted the CFO transition, with Peter Wexler serving as interim CFO after the prior CFO announced her decision to step down. [16]
Why does this matter for the stock? Because in a high-gold-price environment, investors tend to reward miners that can convert price strength into consistent free cash flow and disciplined capital returns—and leadership credibility is often the deciding factor.
Analyst forecasts and targets: bullish upgrades vs. a cautious consensus
Wall Street price targets on Newmont have trended higher into December, but the messaging is mixed—especially after a huge run.
On the bullish end, MarketBeat reported that National Bankshares raised its price target to $120 (from $110) while maintaining an “outperform” view, and it pointed to other raised targets—such as UBS lifting its target to $125 (and maintaining a Buy rating). [17]
At the same time, that same MarketBeat report highlighted a key contradiction: the average target cited there was around $96.37, which is below where the stock now trades near $101. This kind of gap can occur when (1) targets lag a fast-moving stock, (2) analysts’ views are widely dispersed, or (3) the “average” still includes older, more conservative models. [18]
Fundamentals-focused research is also pointing to improving earnings expectations. A Zacks analysis published via Nasdaq noted that earnings estimates have been rising, citing a Zacks consensus view for 2025 EPS around $6.06 and projecting further growth into 2026 (while also emphasizing Newmont’s project pipeline and portfolio actions). [19]
Forecasts for 2025 results: revenue up, production down—what Visible Alpha data implies
A key piece of late‑2025 research from S&P Global Market Intelligence (Visible Alpha consensus) captures the “price vs. volume” trade-off that investors need to understand:
- 2025 revenue expected to rise about 17% year over year to roughly $21.8 billion
- Average realized gold price forecast to jump to about $3,432/oz
- But gold output projected to decline about 16% to roughly 5.86 million ounces, with other metals also expected to fall [20]
Translated into stock terms: the current bull case leans heavily on gold staying high (or rising further), because production volumes are not expected to do the heavy lifting in the near term while Newmont reshapes its portfolio.
Technical and sentiment check: why some strategists warn miners can outrun the metal
While the fundamental and macro setup remains supportive, not every analyst is comfortable chasing miners after a massive move. A Barron’s commentary (citing DataTrek) warned that gold miners—including Newmont—have at times outperformed gold sharply and then reversed, arguing investors should be cautious about assuming linear upside after big runs. [21]
That caution doesn’t mean the bull case is “wrong.” It means positioning and expectations may be less forgiving into 2026—especially if gold consolidates rather than continues to set new highs.
What to watch next for Newmont stock: near-term catalysts into early 2026
Here are the most relevant upcoming catalysts on the calendar (as of December 20, 2025), based on company disclosures and widely followed earnings calendars:
- Dividend payment (Dec. 22, 2025): Newmont’s $0.25/share dividend is scheduled for payment on December 22. [22]
- CEO transition (Dec. 31, 2025 / Jan. 1, 2026): Tom Palmer steps down at year-end; Natascha Viljoen takes over January 1. [23]
- Next earnings window (mid-February 2026, estimated): Several tracking services estimate Newmont’s next report (Q4 2025) around February 19, 2026 (note: this is an estimate until the company confirms). [24]
- Further portfolio updates: Investors will watch for additional monetizations, divestiture clean-up, and any strategic updates around joint ventures and Tier 1 capital allocation priorities. [25]
Bottom line: the Newmont stock setup on 20 December 2025
As of 20 December 2025, Newmont stock sits near a yearly high after a strong December push—supported by (1) a gold price environment that banks still expect to remain elevated into 2026, and (2) company actions aimed at strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital. [26]
But the next phase likely hinges on execution: converting high gold prices into durable free cash flow while navigating restructuring, capex, and a CEO transition. The market has already rewarded Newmont for the 2025 setup—so 2026 may be less about “gold is up” and more about “can Newmont keep delivering.” [27]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.newmont.com, 8. www.newmont.com, 9. www.newmont.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.newmont.com, 12. www.newmont.com, 13. www.barchart.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.spglobal.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.newmont.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.reuters.com
