December 20, 2025 — Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOLD) has abruptly shifted from a “rare-disease growth story” to a merger-arbitrage stock after BioMarin Pharmaceutical announced a definitive, all-cash acquisition valued at roughly $4.8 billion. The headline number for shareholders: $14.50 per share in cash, a premium of about 33% to Amicus’ prior close. [1]
On December 19, FOLD shares surged and closed at $14.18, just below the cash consideration—leaving a small spread that now reflects time to close, regulatory clearance, and deal risk rather than day-to-day biotech sentiment. [2]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and analyst angles available as of 20.12.2025, plus what matters most next for FOLD stock.
What happened: BioMarin agrees to buy Amicus for $14.50 per share in cash
BioMarin (NASDAQ: BMRN) and Amicus (NASDAQ: FOLD) announced a definitive agreement under which BioMarin will acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share in cash, for a total equity value of approximately $4.8 billion. The companies said boards approved the deal, and they’re targeting closing in Q2 2026, subject to customary conditions. [3]
Key closing conditions highlighted by the companies and filings include:
- Approval by Amicus stockholders
- Expiration/termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) waiting period and other antitrust/foreign investment clearances
- Other customary closing conditions [4]
Importantly for deal certainty: BioMarin states the transaction is not subject to financing conditions. [5]
Why FOLD stock is trading just under $14.50: the merger spread is now the story
With FOLD closing at $14.18 on December 19 (after spiking as high as $14.36 intraday), the stock is sitting about $0.32 below the $14.50 cash offer. [6]
That roughly 2.2% discount is the market’s shorthand for:
- Time value (cash is received at closing, not today)
- Regulatory and shareholder approval risk
- General deal-break risk (including sector volatility, policy risk, and financing-market conditions—even though financing is not a condition)
If the deal closes within a typical 4–6 month window into Q2 2026, that spread can translate into a mid-single-digit annualized return for merger-arb strategies. But the flip side is asymmetric: if the transaction fails, FOLD could quickly fall back toward pre-deal levels.
Deal financing and “no financing condition”: what BioMarin says it will use
BioMarin says it plans to fund the purchase using:
- Cash on hand
- Approximately $3.7 billion of non-convertible debt financing, with Morgan Stanley Senior Funding as sole lead arranger and a bridge commitment in place [7]
From a shareholder perspective, this matters because it reduces one classic M&A risk: a deal collapsing because the buyer can’t raise capital. BioMarin explicitly notes no financing condition. [8]
A major “hidden” headline: Galafold patent litigation settlements and U.S. exclusivity into 2037
Alongside the deal announcement, BioMarin/Amicus disclosed that Amicus resolved U.S. patent litigation related to Galafold (migalastat) 123 mg capsules with generic challengers Aurobindo and Lupin. Under the disclosed settlement framework, licenses would allow generics to launch in the U.S. beginning January 30, 2037 (if FDA-approved and absent certain customary exceptions). [9]
Why that matters:
- It helps clarify a crucial long-dated value driver for Amicus’ flagship Fabry franchise—U.S. exclusivity.
- BioMarin explicitly frames this as supporting long-term growth and visibility. [10]
What BioMarin is buying: two marketed rare-disease therapies plus a late-stage pipeline option
1) Galafold (Fabry disease)
Galafold is an oral therapy for Fabry disease and remains the larger revenue contributor. BioPharma Dive reported Galafold generated $371 million in revenue over the first nine months of 2025. [11]
Fierce Pharma also points to Galafold’s longer-term scale, citing $458 million in 2024 sales (per its reporting) and emphasizing expansion opportunity given Fabry underdiagnosis. [12]
2) Pombiliti + Opfolda (Pompe disease)
The combo therapy targets late-onset Pompe disease. BioPharma Dive reported $77 million in revenue over the first nine months of 2025, and notes the combination was FDA-cleared in 2023. [13]
Fierce Pharma reported $70 million in 2024 sales for the combo and highlighted the trajectory as the launch footprint expands. [14]
3) DMX-200 (FSGS): a late-stage “call option” BioMarin gains (U.S. rights)
Beyond marketed products, Amicus holds U.S. rights to DMX-200, an investigational treatment for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS)—a rare kidney disease. Reuters and other reports flag DMX-200 as a strategic part of the asset package. [15]
And just days before the acquisition news, Dimerix (Amicus’ U.S. partner) announced it had completed adult enrollment in the pivotal Phase 3 ACTION3 trial, dosing the 286th adult patient—a notable de-risking milestone on the path to potential regulatory submissions. [16]
The latest financial picture: Amicus posted GAAP profitability in Q3 2025
While the buyout headline dominates, the backdrop helps explain why Amicus was attractive now.
In its Q3 2025 report, Amicus said:
- Total revenue:$169.1 million (up 17% at constant exchange rates)
- GAAP net income:$17.3 million
- Cash position:$264 million, up $33 million in the quarter
- Product detail: Galafold $138.3 million; Pombiliti + Opfolda $30.7 million (Q3) [17]
Management also noted that adoption for Pombiliti + Opfolda was growing and that DMX-200 enrollment remained on track for completion by year-end (as of that November update). [18]
In short: Amicus wasn’t being bought “pre-revenue.” It had meaningful commercial momentum—and a profitability inflection that often attracts larger strategic buyers.
Forecasts after the deal: BioMarin’s guidance on accretion and growth (and what it implies for FOLD)
BioMarin’s forward-looking statements around the acquisition are unusually central to the “forecast” narrative now, because they explain the buyer’s willingness to pay $14.50 and shoulder integration risk.
BioMarin says the acquisition is expected to:
- Add revenue immediately after close
- Be accretive to Non-GAAP diluted EPS within the first 12 months after close
- Be substantially accretive beginning in 2027
- Increase BioMarin’s long-term revenue CAGR through 2030 and beyond [19]
For Amicus shareholders, these forecasts matter mainly as deal-supporting rationale—the more credible the buyer’s synergy and growth case, the more confident the market tends to be that the buyer will push the transaction through.
Analyst outlook: upgrades became irrelevant overnight, and targets moved toward $14.50
Before the buyout, FOLD had been benefiting from stronger sentiment tied to rising sales and quarterly beats. After the announcement, the analyst game changes: most banks will treat FOLD less like a biotech and more like a deal instrument.
A clear example came immediately:
- Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Neutral and cut its price target to $14.50 from $21, effectively anchoring to the cash consideration and signaling limited upside absent a competing bid. [20]
Meanwhile, broader “consensus” snapshots published around this window still show pre-deal targets above the market price—like MarketBeat’s displayed average price target of $16.36—but investors should interpret these cautiously because they can lag real-time deal developments and may not be refreshed instantly across all vendors. [21]
Key deal terms investors should watch: termination fee, outside date, and the path to close
Two deal-mechanics details stand out in Amicus’ filing summary:
Termination fee: $175 million
Under specified circumstances, Amicus would be required to pay BioMarin a $175,000,000 termination fee. [22]
That’s relevant because it can discourage interlopers and shape how likely a topping bid is to emerge.
Outside date: June 19, 2026 (with automatic extensions in certain cases)
The merger agreement includes an “End Date” framework: if the transaction isn’t consummated by midnight ET on June 19, 2026, the period can extend via two automatic three-month extensions if certain conditions are met (notably, if non-antitrust conditions are satisfied and the remaining items are primarily antitrust/FDI related). [23]
This matters for anyone modeling the merger spread: it defines the long-stop timeline and helps explain why the spread exists at all.
What could still move Amicus stock from here?
With a signed cash deal, FOLD’s near-term catalysts narrow. Here are the variables most likely to move the stock price between now and closing:
- Regulatory review tone (HSR and other clearances)
Any hint of a longer-than-expected antitrust process can widen the spread; smooth progress can compress it. [24] - Shareholder vote dynamics
Because the offer is cash and at a premium, shareholder approval is often straightforward—but not guaranteed, especially if activists argue for a higher price. - Competing offers
A “go-shop” isn’t highlighted in the public summaries, and the deal includes typical protections (including the termination fee). Still, biotech M&A can attract interlopers if assets are strategic and integration is clean. - Macro/credit conditions
Even with committed financing and “no financing condition,” markets can influence investor confidence in a buyer’s ability to execute smoothly, especially with multi-billion-dollar debt plans. [25] - Company-specific surprises
Major legal, safety, manufacturing, or commercial surprises at either company can change perceived deal risk—though these are not “scheduled” catalysts.
Bottom line for FOLD stock on Dec. 20, 2025
As of today (20.12.2025), the market is treating Amicus Therapeutics stock primarily as a pending cash acquisition rather than an independent biotech.
The bull case from here: the deal closes on time in Q2 2026, and FOLD converges toward $14.50. [26]
The bear case: delays or deal failure push shares back toward pre-announcement levels, since much of the recent move was deal-driven.
What’s unmistakable is that the past week delivered a dense cluster of news: a blockbuster acquisition announcement, clearer long-term U.S. IP visibility for Galafold into 2037, and additional clinical momentum around DMX-200’s Phase 3 program—together rewriting the narrative around Amicus in a matter of hours. [27]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. finviz.com, 3. www.biomarin.com, 4. www.biomarin.com, 5. www.biomarin.com, 6. finviz.com, 7. www.biomarin.com, 8. www.biomarin.com, 9. www.biomarin.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.biopharmadive.com, 12. www.fiercepharma.com, 13. www.biopharmadive.com, 14. www.fiercepharma.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.biomarin.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.streetinsider.com, 23. www.streetinsider.com, 24. www.biomarin.com, 25. www.biomarin.com, 26. www.biomarin.com, 27. www.biomarin.com
