ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock: Latest News, Analyst Forecasts, and Key Catalysts to Watch on Dec. 20, 2025

ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) stock is ending 2025 with a dense stack of market-moving catalysts—ranging from fresh gallium nitride (GaN) partnerships and expanded automotive power-supply wins to a major European silicon carbide (SiC) investment tailwind and an upcoming Nasdaq-100 index removal.

As of Dec. 20, 2025, ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON) shares traded around $55.21.

Below is what investors are watching right now, what Wall Street is forecasting, and how the near-term debate around ON stock is shaping up heading into 2026.

ON Semiconductor stock is in focus for one big reason: catalysts are colliding

Several developments are converging at once:

Index flows: onsemi is slated to be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in the annual reconstitution, effective before the market open on Dec. 22, 2025, according to Nasdaq’s published changes and Reuters reporting. ^[1]
Power technology momentum: onsemi has announced new steps to accelerate its GaN portfolio—technology increasingly tied to the power needs of AI data centers, while also reinforcing its automotive power footprint. ^[2]
Capital return: the company has authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program slated to begin Jan. 1, 2026, which is a meaningful signal for investors focused on cash flow and per-share value creation. ^[3]
Europe/SiC scaling: the European Commission approved €450 million (CZK 12 billion) in Czech state aid to support a major onsemi SiC integrated manufacturing facility—a long-duration capacity and cost-curve story that matters for automotive electrification and industrial power electronics. ^[4]

The result is a market narrative that looks less like a single earnings-driven stock and more like a “platform” story: power semiconductors at the intersection of EV electrification and AI infrastructure.

Headline watch: the most important ON Semiconductor news right now

1) Nasdaq-100 removal: why the market cares (even if fundamentals don’t change overnight)

Nasdaq’s annual reconstitution will remove ON Semiconductor from the Nasdaq-100, effective Dec. 22, 2025. Reuters and Nasdaq’s published list of additions/removals include ON among the names leaving the index. ^[5]

For ON stock, this matters mainly because index changes can trigger temporary, mechanical buying/selling by funds that track the Nasdaq-100. Removal does not change onsemi’s revenue, margins, competitive positioning, or balance sheet—but it can affect short-term demand for shares around the effective date.

2) GaN expansion heats up: GlobalFoundries collaboration targets 650V devices

On Dec. 18, 2025, onsemi announced a collaboration with GlobalFoundries to develop and manufacture advanced GaN power products, starting with 650V devices and aiming to begin sampling in the first half of 2026. The company positioned the effort around smaller, more efficient power systems for AI data centers, EVs, and other high-growth power markets. ^[6]

The strategic subtext: as AI compute scales, the “hidden bottleneck” becomes power conversion efficiency—not just GPUs and servers. GaN is one route to higher switching speeds and lower losses in power supplies and converters, which can materially influence data center economics at scale.

3) Earlier December: onsemi–Innoscience MoU aims to scale GaN manufacturing

On Dec. 2, 2025, onsemi disclosed a memorandum of understanding with Innoscience to explore expanding production of GaN power devices using Innoscience’s 200mm GaN-on-silicon process—with an initial focus starting at 40–200V devices. The release also referenced a projected $2.9 billion total addressable market by 2030 for GaN power devices (as cited in the announcement) and framed the collaboration around cost-optimized, high-volume rollout. ^[7]

Read-through for ON stock: this is about capacity, cost, and time-to-market. If GaN adoption accelerates in mainstream power applications, manufacturing scale can become an advantage.

4) Automotive power staying sticky: FORVIA HELLA extends collaboration

On Dec. 11, 2025, onsemi and FORVIA HELLA announced an extension of their strategic collaboration, centered on adoption of onsemi’s PowerTrench® T10 MOSFET technology across advanced automotive platforms. The announcement emphasizes efficiency and power density gains and notes that the MOSFETs are manufactured at onsemi’s East Fishkill, New York facility. ^[8]

For investors, this is the type of “quietly important” story that can underpin multi-year revenue: design-ins for automotive architectures tend to be sticky once qualified and deployed across platforms.

5) Europe / SiC: €450 million Czech aid approved for an integrated SiC facility

The European Commission approved a Czech measure providing about €450 million in direct grant support for onsemi’s €1.64 billion investment in a new integrated SiC power device manufacturing facility in Rožnov pod Radhoštěm, expected to start commercial operations by 2027, according to the Commission’s published press material. ^[9]

The Commission’s description also emphasizes that the facility is expected to cover the full chain from SiC crystal growth to finished devices, and it outlines commitments including work on next-generation 200mm SiC technology, priority-rated orders during supply shortages in line with the European Chips Act, and training/skills programs. ^[10]

Why it matters for ON stock: SiC is central to high-efficiency, high-voltage power in EVs, charging, and industrial systems. A vertically integrated plant can support cost, supply resilience, and (potentially) long-term margin structure—though execution and ramp timelines remain key risks.

6) Capital return catalyst: onsemi authorizes a new $6B buyback starting in 2026

On Nov. 18, 2025, onsemi announced a new share repurchase program of up to $6 billion over the next three years, launching Jan. 1, 2026, after the previous $3 billion authorization expires Dec. 31, 2025. The company said it repurchased $2.1 billion of stock under the prior authorization and highlighted that it spent approximately 100% of free cash flow in 2025 on buybacks. ^[11]

This is one of the clearest “shareholder signal” actions on the board in the large-cap semis universe right now—and it helps explain why ON stock remains closely followed even amid cyclical uncertainty.

Earnings reality check: AI helps, but EV/industrial caution hasn’t vanished

Q3 2025 results: a beat driven by AI power demand resilience

In its Q3 2025 reporting cycle, onsemi beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and profit, helped by demand linked to the AI boom—particularly power-management chips used in data centers, according to Reuters. ^[12]

Reuters also highlighted the push-and-pull in the story: while AI-related demand was supportive, automotive customers were described as spending cautiously on onsemi’s silicon carbide chips amid sluggish EV demand in Europe and North America. ^[13]

Q4 2025 guidance: steady, but not a “snapback” forecast

From the company’s earnings call transcript, onsemi guided Q4 2025 revenue to $1.48B–$1.58B, and guided non-GAAP EPS to $0.57–$0.67. ^[14]
Reuters reported the midpoint of revenue guidance as largely in line with consensus and characterized profit guidance as in line as well. ^[15]

Balance sheet and operating details investors cite in the ON stock debate

Key operational details from the Q3 earnings call transcript included:

Cash and short-term investments of about $2.9B (with additional liquidity including an undrawn revolver). ^[16]
Free cash flow of about $372M in Q3 2025. ^[17]
Manufacturing utilization around 74% in Q3 2025 (with expectations for Q4 to be flat to slightly down, per the transcript summary). ^[18]

These points matter because ON is frequently valued as a cash-generation story, not just a “unit growth” story.

Analyst forecasts for ON stock: where Wall Street is clustering right now

Analyst sentiment into late December looks mixed-to-neutral overall—often reflecting a belief in the long-term power thesis, offset by near-term cyclicality.

Recent target changes: Truist lifts price target, keeps Hold

Truist raised its price target to $57 from $51 and maintained a Hold rating, per The Fly reporting via TipRanks. ^[19]

Consensus: “Hold” label, but price targets imply moderate upside

MarketBeat’s compilation shows:

An average rating of “Hold”
A consensus price target around $59.35
A split of ratings including Buys and Holds (MarketBeat lists 14 Buys and 15 Holds in its summary) ^[20]

Another snapshot: Public.com shows a Buy consensus with heavy Hold weighting

Public.com’s aggregation states that ON has a consensus Buy rating based on 24 analyst ratings, but also shows 54% Hold versus smaller percentages in Buy/Strong Buy. It lists a price target of $59.12 (as of its page timestamp). ^[21]

Important context: these aggregations are useful for directional sentiment, but they can differ by methodology, coverage lists, and update timing—especially in a period where semiconductors are being re-rated around AI.

The bull case for ON Semiconductor stock going into 2026

Investors who are constructive on ON stock typically focus on five pillars:

1) Power is becoming the scarce resource in AI infrastructure

The AI trade is increasingly about the entire stack—not just compute silicon. onsemi is positioning around power conversion and efficiency, including GaN initiatives tied to the data center “power tree” narrative. ^[22]

2) GaN momentum is tangible, not just “R&D storytelling”

Between the Innoscience MoU (manufacturing scale) and the GlobalFoundries collaboration (next-gen 650V products), onsemi is building multiple pathways to broaden its GaN portfolio. ^[23]

3) SiC capacity in Europe could become a strategic advantage

The approved Czech support package explicitly frames the project as first-of-a-kind in the EU for integrated SiC manufacturing and links it to resilience and next-gen 200mm SiC development—factors that can matter to European automotive and industrial supply chains. ^[24]

4) Shareholder returns are not an afterthought

A $6B authorization—starting right after the prior program expires—keeps buybacks at the center of the equity story as ON enters 2026. ^[25]

5) Street expectations lean toward a cyclical recovery after a down period

S&P Global Market Intelligence notes a cyclical downturn context for automotive and industrial demand and discusses expectations of a rebound after weakness (as reflected in its summary of consensus expectations). ^[26]

The bear case: what could keep ON stock range-bound (or volatile)

Even with strong long-term technology positioning, skeptics point to several near-term risks:

1) EV demand uncertainty can directly hit SiC expectations

Reuters explicitly flagged sluggish EV demand in Europe and North America as a reason automotive clients were spending cautiously on onsemi’s silicon carbide chips. ^[27]

2) Industrial and auto cycles can pressure utilization and margins

When utilization is constrained, even strong product positioning can be overshadowed by absorption dynamics—one reason investors focus so tightly on utilization, pricing, and segment recovery signals.

3) Index removal can create short-term technical pressure

The Nasdaq-100 removal is a mechanical event that can reshape near-term flows, even if it doesn’t change fundamentals. ^[28]

4) “Execution risk” on multi-year capacity projects is real

Europe’s SiC facility is expected to begin commercial operations by 2027, which makes it strategically meaningful—but also means investors will watch for timeline, yield, and ramp updates over multiple years. ^[29]

What to watch next for ON stock in early 2026

If you’re tracking ON Semiconductor stock into the new year, these are the most practical “next checkpoints”:

Nasdaq-100 reconstitution impact around Dec. 22 (volume, volatility, and whether selling pressure persists or fades quickly). ^[30]
Buyback start (Jan. 1, 2026) and how aggressively onsemi deploys repurchases as the new program begins. ^[31]
GaN sampling timelines (H1 2026 for the GF collaboration; progress on broader GaN rollout efforts). ^[32]
AI power demand signals versus EV and industrial stabilization—especially any commentary that changes the balance of “AI strength offsets auto weakness.” ^[33]
Czech SiC facility updates (permitting, equipment, hiring/training, and any clarity on 200mm SiC roadmap progress). ^[34]

Bottom line: ON Semiconductor stock has clear catalysts, but the market wants proof of a broader recovery

ON Semiconductor enters the final stretch of 2025 with a rare combination of technology upside (GaN and SiC, with AI power as a major theme), policy and capacity tailwinds (EU-backed SiC manufacturing expansion), and a shareholder return backstop (a new $6B buyback slated to begin in 2026). ^[35]

At the same time, investors are still balancing those longer-term positives against two near-term realities: (1) EV and industrial cyclicality hasn’t fully normalized, and (2) index-related flow events can temporarily dominate price action.