Intel Corporation stock (NASDAQ: INTC) is closing out 2025 with a familiar mix of optimism and skepticism—and the weekend of Dec. 20, 2025 captured that tension perfectly. On one side: a high-profile regulatory green light for Nvidia’s investment and another tangible manufacturing milestone for Intel Foundry. On the other: ongoing questions about execution, capital intensity, and geopolitical headline risk that can swing sentiment quickly.
Below is a full roundup of the news, forecasts, and market analyses circulating on Dec. 20, 2025, plus the key catalysts investors are watching as Intel heads toward 2026.
Nvidia’s Intel investment clears U.S. antitrust review—why it matters for INTC stock
One of the biggest overhangs on Intel’s recent “turnaround trade” has been whether regulators would slow or complicate Nvidia’s planned minority investment. That uncertainty eased this week.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) posted an HSR early termination notice for NVIDIA Corporation as the acquiring party and Intel Corporation as the acquired party, dated Dec. 18, 2025 (Transaction Number 20260110, status “Granted”). [1]
Reuters reported on Dec. 19, 2025 that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, pointing directly to the FTC notice as evidence the waiting period ended without enforcement action. [2]
Why this is meaningful for Intel stock (INTC):
- Regulatory risk drops: Even though the deal is a minority stake, clearance reduces the chance of a protracted review becoming a headline drag. [3]
- Narrative support: Intel’s bull case relies heavily on external validation—strategic partners, customers, and government support—because Intel is still proving its foundry pivot can deliver durable margins and cash flow. Weekend analysis notes repeatedly framed the Nvidia clearance as a confidence signal rather than just paperwork. TechStock²+1
- Competitive implications: Reuters also highlighted that the tie-up could affect dynamics with rivals, including TSMC and AMD, because it potentially strengthens Intel’s positioning in parts of the ecosystem where Nvidia’s influence is enormous. [4]
Bottom line: Going into late December, the Nvidia clearance is being treated as a “de-risking” moment for the partnership—helpful for sentiment—even if the fundamental debate about Intel’s long-term earnings power remains open.
Intel Foundry hits a key manufacturing milestone: High-NA EUV acceptance testing for 14A
The other major storyline being folded into Dec. 20 market recaps is Intel Foundry’s progress on next-generation manufacturing—specifically High-NA EUV lithography.
Intel and ASML reached the milestone of “acceptance testing” on the TWINSCAN EXE:5200B High-NA EUV tool, with Intel describing throughput of 175 wafers per hour and overlay accuracy of 0.7 nanometers. [5]
Tech industry coverage this week emphasized that Intel has now installed ASML’s EXE:5200B—often described as the first commercial High-NA EUV tool intended to push toward production—and that it will be used to advance Intel’s 14A node work. [6]
Why the 14A / High-NA EUV update matters to INTC investors
This is not a near-term revenue switch. But it matters because Intel’s 2025 stock move has been driven by a belief that the company is regaining manufacturing credibility—and manufacturing credibility is the foundation for:
- pricing power in CPUs,
- competitiveness in data center platforms,
- and the long-term viability of Intel Foundry as a third-party manufacturer.
Intel has previously outlined that 14A risk production is targeted for 2027, with high-volume production expected to follow in 2028, based on comments reported from Intel’s Foundry Direct Connect event. [7]
What investors should take from the milestone: the market tends to reward proof points that Intel’s roadmap is not slipping—especially when they involve hard-to-fake manufacturing steps like tool qualification and acceptance testing. [8]
Intel’s latest official financial guideposts: Q3 results and Q4 2025 outlook
Weekend Intel stock analysis on Dec. 20 repeatedly anchored back to Intel’s most recent earnings snapshot—because it’s where “turnaround narrative” meets numbers.
In Intel’s official Q3 2025 results release, the company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.23 and guided for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8B to $13.8B, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 (and guidance excluding Altera following the sale of a majority ownership interest completed in Q3 2025). [9]
This matters because a big portion of the INTC debate is about whether Intel can:
- stabilize profitability while
- funding an expensive foundry buildout and process transition.
Reuters’ reporting around Intel’s Q3 release also underscored just how capital-intensive this transition remains, citing Intel’s CFO discussing 2025 capex of $27B versus $17B in 2024. [10]
Dec. 20 analyst forecasts for Intel stock: price targets cluster in the mid-$30s, but dispersion is wide
If you want a clean read on what Wall Street thinks of Intel stock right now, the simplest answer is: there is no clean read.
Dec. 20 forecasts and roundups showed a “center” in the mid-$30s, but with meaningful disagreement between bulls and bears.
MarketBeat (Dec. 20): “Reduce” tone and a target below the recent trading level
A Dec. 20 MarketBeat roundup pegged Intel’s average analyst stance as cautious, describing an average rating of “Reduce” with an average price target of $34.84, while noting the stock recently traded around $36.82 and that the 12‑month range included $17.67–$44.02. [11]
MarketBeat’s forecast page similarly listed a $34.84 consensus target from 34 analysts, with targets spanning $20 (low) to $52 (high). [12]
Zacks: a slightly higher average target
Zacks listed an average Intel price target of $36.15, based on a set of analyst reports tracked on its platform. [13]
AI-driven / quantitative forecasting snapshots (published Dec. 20)
Some Dec. 20 market roundups also referenced model-driven signals rather than traditional sell-side targets. For example, Danelfin published an AI Score of 6/10 (“Hold”) for Intel on Dec. 20, 2025, positioning it as neither strongly bullish nor strongly bearish by its framework. [14]
How to interpret the spread: When targets range from ~$20 to ~$52, that’s not “noise.” It’s the market admitting Intel is a wide-outcomes story—where execution makes the difference between a durable re-rating and a fade back into value-trap territory. [15]
Dec. 20 valuation debate: Intel’s surge is real—so is the skepticism
One of the most widely circulated Dec. 20 analyses came from Simply Wall St, which asked a blunt question after Intel’s big rebound: is the pivot “enough,” or has the stock run ahead of fundamentals?
Simply Wall St noted Intel’s share price was up 82.1% year-to-date and 88.6% over the last year, even after a ~2.6% pullback over the past week (as of its Dec. 20 publication). [16]
But it also highlighted a tension in the underlying cash story, citing trailing twelve-month free cash flow of roughly negative $13.7B and presenting a DCF-based intrinsic value estimate of about $14.71 per share (which, under its model assumptions, implied the market price was well above that figure). [17]
What to do with that (as an investor reading Dec. 20 coverage):
- The stock’s momentum narrative (partners + process milestones + strategic reset) is powerful. [18]
- The cash-flow and capex reality is equally powerful—and can reassert itself quickly if earnings or foundry execution disappoint. [19]
Institutional activity on Dec. 20: one more data point in the “who’s buying” question
Dec. 20 coverage also surfaced incremental institutional activity.
MarketBeat reported that Toth Financial Advisory Corp raised its Intel stake by 25.1% in Q3 to 72,469 shares, valued at about $2.43 million, citing the firm’s latest 13F filing. [20]
To be clear: one advisor’s position change doesn’t predict the stock. But in a name like Intel—where sentiment often swings on “who believes in the turnaround”—these filings frequently get amplified in weekend recaps.
Risks still hanging over Intel stock as of Dec. 20, 2025
Even with upbeat milestones, Intel remains unusually exposed to non-financial headline risk for a mega-cap tech company.
1) Washington / China scrutiny on semiconductor tools
Reuters reported on Dec. 17, 2025 that Republican lawmakers criticized Intel’s testing of tools tied to a Chinese-linked supplier after Reuters reporting, highlighting how sensitive Intel’s supply chain choices are in the current policy environment. [21]
2) Governance and conflict-of-interest headlines around the CEO
A Reuters investigation published Dec. 10, 2025 reported scrutiny around Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan and potential conflicts tied to deal discussions involving companies where he had longstanding interests, according to sources cited by Reuters; Intel’s board had implemented recusal procedures, Reuters reported. [22]
3) Execution and capital intensity remain the “real” risk
Intel’s own guidance and Reuters’ reporting make clear the company is still spending heavily as it tries to rebuild manufacturing leadership and scale foundry ambitions. [23]
What to watch next for Intel stock heading into 2026
Based on the Dec. 20 news cycle and the way analysts framed the setup, these are the catalysts most likely to drive the next major move in INTC:
- Confirmation that Nvidia’s investment closes cleanly after regulatory clearance—and any additional details about the strategic scope of collaboration. [24]
- Evidence that foundry milestones translate into customer traction, not just engineering headlines—especially around nodes like 18A and the runway toward 14A. [25]
- Q4 execution versus guidance, particularly on margins, profitability, and cash flow as Intel balances cost discipline with massive capex requirements. [26]
- Geopolitical and policy volatility, where any new restrictions, investigations, or supply chain controversies can reprice risk quickly. [27]
The takeaway: Intel stock is stronger—but still a “prove it” story
As of Dec. 20, 2025, Intel stock is being pulled by two forces:
- Momentum and validation: regulatory clearance for Nvidia’s investment and credible foundry progress signals. [28]
- Fundamentals and valuation tension: wide analyst target dispersion, high capex demands, and debate over whether the rebound already prices in a clean turnaround. [29]
References
1. www.ftc.gov, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. community.intel.com, 6. www.tomshardware.com, 7. bits-chips.com, 8. community.intel.com, 9. www.intc.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.zacks.com, 14. danelfin.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. simplywall.st, 17. simplywall.st, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.intc.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.tomshardware.com, 26. www.intc.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com
