HONG KONG — Dec. 21, 2025 — The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is heading into 2026 with a mix of momentum and methodical housekeeping: headline-grabbing IPO candidates (from AI unicorns to crypto), big-ticket rule changes that kick in on New Year’s Day, and a market-structure overhaul aimed at making everyday trading less awkward for ordinary investors. [1]
At the center is HKEX’s two-track strategy: keep Hong Kong the preferred offshore listing venue for mainland heavyweights, while also tightening the nuts and bolts of how the market functions—public float visibility, board lot accessibility, and IPO process quality. It’s a very “global financial hub” vibe: glamorous front door, strict back office. [2]
Below is what matters most as of Dec. 21, 2025—the current news, the most-cited forecasts, and the emerging analysis shaping how investors and issuers are thinking about the Hong Kong Stock Exchange going into 2026. [3]
1) HKEX’s board lot reform: a quiet change that could affect millions of trades
HKEX has opened a consultation on enhancements to Hong Kong’s board lot framework—the trading-unit system that determines how many shares make up one “board lot” (the standard unit for on-exchange trading). For years, wildly different board lot sizes across stocks have helped create two persistent headaches: (1) higher entry costs for some shares, and (2) messy “odd lot” trading for investors who don’t land neatly on a board lot multiple. [4]
What HKEX is proposing
HKEX’s consultation paper lays out three core components:
- Lower the board lot value floor guidance from HK$2,000 to HK$1,000
- Introduce a board lot value ceiling guidance at HK$50,000
- Standardise board lot units by offering a defined set of eight possible board lot sizes: 1, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000 shares [5]
HKEX’s own impact snapshot is not trivial: as of end-June 2025, the proposed framework would mean 657 securities would need to change board lot units—about 25% of 2,680 applicable securities—representing roughly 22% of average daily turnover in the first half of 2025. That’s a large chunk of real-world liquidity potentially getting smoother mechanics. [6]
Why the HK$50,000 ceiling matters (and why it’s not just “help the small guys”)
HKEX ties the ceiling idea directly to retail participation patterns. Its analysis indicates retail participation is highest when board lot values are HK$10,000 or less, and that participation declines notably when board lot values exceed HK$50,000—suggesting affordability (and not just investor interest) can be a hard gate. [7]
Timeline: when could this actually happen?
This is still a consultation, not a final rule. HKEX’s consultation paper states the consultation closes on March 12, 2026. [8]
Why this is a bigger deal than it sounds: board lot reform isn’t as flashy as a mega IPO, but it’s the kind of “market plumbing” change that can reduce friction across the entire trading ecosystem—brokers, retail investors, issuers, and even how market makers manage spreads. If Hong Kong wants deeper day-to-day liquidity (not just episodic IPO headlines), this is exactly the kind of nerdy lever you pull. [9]
2) New public float rules take effect Jan. 1, 2026—more disclosure, fewer suspensions, stricter consequences
Just days before year-end, HKEX published conclusions on amendments to Listing Rules relating to ongoing public float requirements, with the new regime taking effect Jan. 1, 2026. [10]
The key changes investors and issuers should understand
HKEX’s announcement highlights four reforms that collectively aim to keep trading orderly while increasing transparency:
- An alternative ongoing public float threshold: issuers may comply with an alternative threshold requiring (a) at least 10% public float and (b) a public float market value of over HK$1 billion—intended to provide more flexibility for capital management like share repurchases. [11]
- A bespoke requirement for A+H issuers: ongoing public float of H shares must represent at least 5% of total issued shares in the relevant class, or have a market value over HK$1 billion, to ensure a “critical mass” of H shares remains in public hands. [12]
- New regular public float reporting requirements for all issuers, plus additional disclosure obligations (and restrictions from certain corporate actions) for issuers with shortfalls. [13]
- Instead of suspending trading for “significant” public float shortfalls, affected issuers may be flagged with a stock marker (“-PF”)—but face delisting if they fail to restore public float within 18 months (or 12 months for GEM). [14]
HKEX framed this as part of a broader push to balance issuer flexibility with investor protections, including stronger disclosure-based tools and deterrence via delisting for prolonged non-compliance. [15]
The practical takeaway: Hong Kong is trying to be a “high-liquidity, high-quality” listing venue at scale. That requires less tolerance for opaque float situations—especially in a market where buybacks, controlling shareholders, and concentrated ownership structures are not rare edge cases. [16]
3) IPO pipeline: AI unicorns move toward the HKEX stage, crypto arrives, and chips keep coming
If you want the simplest narrative for HKEX going into 2026, it’s this: technology is increasingly the storyline, and Hong Kong is positioning itself as the preferred fundraising gateway for it—especially for mainland firms seeking international capital. [17]
MiniMax clears a key hurdle
A Reuters update dated today says an HKEX document shows China’s MiniMax has passed a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing—a meaningful step toward a potential listing. [18]
Zhipu AI (Knowledge Atlas Technology) edges closer
A separate Reuters update indicates Knowledge Atlas Technology—the company commonly associated with Zhipu AI—also passed a Hong Kong listing hearing. [19]
Meanwhile, reporting from the South China Morning Post says Zhipu moved closer to a Hong Kong IPO after passing a listing hearing and filing documents with HKEX, with market talk pointing to a possible US$300 million raise as early as January (though the filing itself did not specify fundraising targets). [20]
AI chips: Biren prepares an IPO launch
Reuters reports that Chinese AI chip company Biren Technology is set to launch a Hong Kong IPO in the coming weeks and could raise around US$300 million, underscoring the continuing pipeline of China-linked semiconductor and AI supply chain companies testing offshore investor appetite. [21]
Crypto gets its landmark HKEX moment: HashKey’s debut
In one of the year’s most symbolic listings, Reuters reports that HashKey—described as Hong Kong’s largest licensed cryptocurrency exchange—raised about HK$1.61 billion (roughly US$207 million) in its IPO. Reuters also reported heavy demand (including very large retail oversubscription figures) and noted that the debut was the first crypto-related IPO in Hong Kong, arriving amid crypto market volatility. [22]
Why this matters beyond crypto: HKEX and Hong Kong policymakers have been leaning into regulated digital assets as a “next chapter” for the city’s financial identity. A successful, highly subscribed listing is the kind of public proof-of-concept that helps turn a policy ambition into a capital markets narrative investors can actually price. [23]
4) The regulator’s message to IPO sponsors: “Stop submitting sloppy work”
A hot IPO pipeline is only bullish if the pipeline is credible. And this month, regulators signaled they don’t want Hong Kong’s listing boom to degrade into paperwork chaos.
Reuters reported that Hong Kong’s securities regulator and HKEX urged investment banks to maintain standards in preparing IPO applications, amid concerns that a surge in activity led some banks to mishandle multiple listings simultaneously—raising the risk of lower-quality submissions and potentially punitive consequences for substandard work. [24]
The Financial Times reported a similar theme: Hong Kong authorities warning banks over poor IPO paperwork (including concerns like copying-and-pasting content), as IPO volume accelerates. [25]
The strategic subtext: If Hong Kong wants to stay the preferred offshore listing venue for big mainland issuers—and attract global capital alongside them—then “fast” can’t come at the expense of “trustworthy.” Sponsor discipline is not glamorous, but it is central to whether Hong Kong can sustain premium valuations and deep institutional participation. [26]
5) Market backdrop: liquidity is strong—but cross-border flows can still wobble
Not all pressure on Hong Kong equities is “Hong Kong-specific.” A large share of HKEX’s story remains tied to China’s macro data, sentiment on mainland policy, and the rhythm of cross-border flows.
The Financial Times reported today that Chinese stocks cooled on weak economic data, and noted that southbound flows into Hong Kong (mainland money buying Hong Kong shares via Stock Connect) fell sharply—one signal that even in a strong year, liquidity can be sensitive to near-term macro surprises. [27]
This matters because HKEX’s attractiveness as a listing venue is not just about rules—it’s about secondary market depth. IPO buyers care about what happens after listing day: can institutions build positions, can retail participate, can market makers manage spreads, and can valuations hold when sentiment turns? [28]
6) Forecasts for 2026: IPO fundraising aims high, Hang Seng targets cluster around 28,000–30,000+
Forecasting markets is an entertaining ritual where everyone brings math, feelings, and career incentives to the same party. Still, the range of institutional outlooks can tell you what assumptions are becoming “mainstream.”
IPO fundraising: three big forecasting camps
Deloitte’s outlook: Deloitte’s China Capital Market Services Group forecasts about 160 new listings in Hong Kong in 2026 raising at least HKD300 billion, supported by more than 300 listing applications, and expects several mega IPOs (including seven IPOs raising at least HKD10 billion each). [29]
EY’s view: EY reports that HKEX ranked first globally by funds raised in 2025 (in EY’s reporting) and describes a sharp recovery in Hong Kong IPO proceeds in 2025. EY also highlights an active pipeline of IPO applicants and expects IPO activity to remain vibrant into 2026 (with growth “more measured”). [30]
KPMG’s framing: KPMG points to an “all-time high” pipeline of more than 300 active IPO applications as of Dec. 7, 2025 (including a large number of A+H applicants), arguing that Hong Kong is positioned to maintain IPO momentum into 2026. [31]
Hang Seng Index: the 28,000–30,000 neighborhood shows up again and again
UBS (via SCMP): UBS expects more than HK$300 billion to be raised from 150 to 200 IPOs in 2026 and forecast the Hang Seng Index could climb to 30,000. [32]
Caixin (major banks): Caixin reports that major banks forecast the Hang Seng Index could reach 28,000–30,000 in 2026, citing earnings growth assumptions and potential increases in foreign investment (while noting some continued caution toward Chinese equities). [33]
IG (base case): IG’s outlook sets a base case price target of 28,300 for the Hang Seng Index by end-2026, with a view that earnings growth could accelerate into 2026 (assuming valuation multiples stay similar). [34]
The big “but”: AI valuation risk is now an explicit part of the 2026 conversation
Reuters has also flagged that Asia’s strong equity-deal pipeline—Hong Kong included—could be tested by concerns about an AI bubble and tech valuation volatility in 2026, even as the overall pipeline remains substantial. [35]
In plain English: the optimistic base case for HKEX in 2026 assumes (1) enough macro stability to keep capital flowing, (2) no major valuation shock in global tech that poisons growth IPO pricing, and (3) Hong Kong’s rule reforms translating into real liquidity and confidence—not just nicer PDFs. [36]
7) What to watch next: holiday trading, Stock Connect timing, and key HKEX deadlines
With year-end approaching, the trading calendar itself becomes a market factor—liquidity can thin, and deal timing becomes strategic.
Hong Kong securities market: Christmas closures and half-days
HKEX’s holiday schedule circular confirms the Hong Kong securities market is closed on Dec. 25 (Christmas Day) and Dec. 26 (the first weekday after Christmas Day), and lists Dec. 24 (Eve of Christmas Day) and Dec. 31 (Eve of New Year) as half-day trading days and non-settlement days. [37]
Stock Connect: December schedule implications
HKEX’s Stock Connect trading calendar for 2025 shows Dec. 24 as a half day, Dec. 25–26 as holidays/closures, and Dec. 31 as a half day, with corresponding impacts on northbound and southbound trading availability. [38]
Near-term catalysts for HKEX watchers
A practical short list, based on what’s already in motion:
- Jan. 1, 2026: new ongoing public float rules take effect. [39]
- January 2026 window: multiple reports point to potential near-term listings among AI names that have cleared listing hearings (timelines still subject to market conditions and final approvals). [40]
- March 12, 2026: consultation deadline for board lot framework enhancements. [41]
Bottom line: HKEX is acting like a market that plans to stay busy
As of Dec. 21, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is not just enjoying a strong IPO cycle—it’s trying to institutionalize it. The playbook is clear in the sequence of moves:
- tighten listing quality expectations and float transparency,
- modernize trade accessibility (board lots),
- keep the pipeline stocked with “future economy” issuers (AI, semis, digital assets),
- and preserve Hong Kong’s role as the capital gateway between mainland China and global investors. [42]
The risk, as always, is that macro surprises or a tech valuation air-pocket turns “a busy pipeline” into “a queue of postponed deals.” But on the evidence available right now, HKEX is preparing for 2026 like it expects the spotlight—and intends to keep it. [43]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.hkex.com.hk, 3. www.ey.com, 4. www.hkex.com.hk, 5. www.hkex.com.hk, 6. www.hkex.com.hk, 7. www.hkex.com.hk, 8. www.hkex.com.hk, 9. www.hkex.com.hk, 10. www.hkex.com.hk, 11. www.hkex.com.hk, 12. www.hkex.com.hk, 13. www.hkex.com.hk, 14. www.hkex.com.hk, 15. www.hkex.com.hk, 16. www.hkex.com.hk, 17. www.ey.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.scmp.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.ft.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.ft.com, 28. www.ft.com, 29. www.deloitte.com, 30. www.ey.com, 31. kpmg.com, 32. www.scmp.com, 33. www.caixinglobal.com, 34. www.ig.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.hkex.com.hk, 38. www.hkex.com.hk, 39. www.hkex.com.hk, 40. www.tradingview.com, 41. www.hkex.com.hk, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.ft.com
