Christmas week is usually about thin liquidity and shorter trading hours, not blockbuster headlines. But pharma and biotech stocks head into the final full week of the year with a rare mix of policy shockwaves, deal-making, and FDA-driven volatility—all clustered around Dec. 19–21, 2025.
From the White House’s sweeping “most-favored-nation” (MFN) push on U.S. drug prices to BioMarin’s largest-ever acquisition and fresh FDA approvals, the setup into year-end has become more headline-sensitive than the calendar would suggest. Here’s what investors and traders should be watching in pharma stocks in the week ahead.
Christmas week trading: shorter sessions, fewer buyers, faster moves
The week of Dec. 22–26, 2025 is structurally different for markets:
- U.S. equities are scheduled to close early on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (1:00 p.m. ET) and remain closed on Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day). [1]
- Major U.S. exchanges will still trade on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, despite federal office-closure directives—meaning liquidity may be uneven, but the tape will be live. [2]
- Macro data still matters even in a holiday week, with reports (including GDP and consumer confidence) expected to shape broader risk appetite. [3]
For pharma stocks, reduced depth can amplify reactions to policy headlines and biotech trial updates—especially in single-name biotech where a single press release can overwhelm normal flows.
The biggest driver: U.S. drug pricing deals reframe “policy risk” into 2026
Nine large drugmakers sign Medicaid and cash-pay pricing deals
On Dec. 19, President Donald Trump and nine major pharmaceutical companies announced agreements aimed at cutting prices for drugs sold to Medicaid and reducing prices for certain cash-paying consumers, framed as aligning U.S. costs with prices in other wealthy nations. [4]
Reuters reported the signatories included Amgen (AMGN), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Gilead (GILD), GSK (GSK), Merck (MRK), Novartis, Sanofi, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Roche’s U.S. unit Genentech. [5]
Why this matters for pharma stocks next week: it shifts the debate from “Will there be tariffs or aggressive price controls?” to “How big is the real earnings impact—and who is most exposed?”
Reuters noted that shares of most participating drugmakers rose about 1%–3% as investors focused on (1) a three-year exemption from tariffs tied to the agreements and (2) the view that the economics may not represent a dramatic step-change because U.S. drug pricing already includes substantial rebates and discounts. [6]
TrumpRx and direct-to-consumer pricing: real savings, but not for everyone
A key feature is the administration’s TrumpRx concept—directing consumers to manufacturer channels for cash-pay purchases. Reuters reported that people paying fixed co-pays through insurance may see limited benefit compared to cash-paying consumers. [7]
The White House’s fact sheet described the initiative as expanding access to MFN-style pricing for Medicaid programs and highlighted large list-price-to-direct-price reductions on example medicines. [8]
Reuters also cited examples disclosed by companies at the event:
- Merck said it will sell Januvia, Janumet, and Janumet XR directly to consumers at about 70% off list prices, and said its experimental cholesterol drug enlicitide could be offered through direct-to-consumer channels if approved. [9]
- Bristol Myers Squibb indicated it would provide Eliquis to Medicaid for free as part of its deal. [10]
“Policy spillover” goes global: Roche flags Switzerland pricing impact
The policy ripple is already visible outside the U.S. On Dec. 20, Roche’s CEO warned that prices for new medicines in Switzerland could rise over time following the U.S. deal, with future pricing potentially linked to GDP per capita as governments and companies negotiate who “pays their share” for innovation. [11]
This is a reminder that U.S. price pressure can echo into global reference pricing and launch strategy—issues that matter most for large-cap pharma with broad international footprints.
Medicare pricing pilots add a second layer of uncertainty
Also on Dec. 19, the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced two pilot models aimed at bringing Medicare costs closer to international benchmarks:
- GLOBE (Medicare Part B drugs) would use global price data to calculate manufacturer rebates and set patient out-of-pocket costs; CMS said it would launch Oct. 1, 2026 and run through 2031. [12]
- GUARD (Medicare Part D drugs) would use international benchmarks to determine rebates and out-of-pocket costs; CMS said it would launch Jan. 1, 2027 and run through Dec. 31, 2031. [13]
Week-ahead implication: while these are longer-dated, the market may spend next week trying to price the combined effect of (1) Medicaid MFN-style deals and (2) Medicare benchmark pilots—especially for companies with heavy exposure to Part B (e.g., oncology and infused biologics) or Part D (chronic outpatient medicines).
Deal flow and consolidation: rare disease M&A and oncology licensing heat up
BioMarin’s $4.8B Amicus acquisition reshapes rare disease positioning
On Dec. 19, BioMarin (BMRN) announced an agreement to acquire Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) for $4.8 billion, described as BioMarin’s largest transaction in its history. [14]
Fierce Pharma reported the deal price as $14.50 per share, a premium to Amicus’ prior close and 30-day average, and highlighted that BioMarin gains:
- Galafold (Fabry disease) and Pombiliti-Opfolda (Pompe disease), plus
- U.S. rights to DMX-200 (Phase 3 candidate for FSGS). [15]
BioMarin’s shares jumped sharply on the announcement, reflecting investor optimism that the acquisition can accelerate revenue growth and deepen rare-disease scale. [16]
Week-ahead watch: deal-arb positioning, management commentary, and whether the market begins to price follow-on consolidation among orphan/rare disease players.
AstraZeneca licenses a pan-KRAS candidate from China’s Jacobio
On Dec. 21, Jacobio Pharma announced a global exclusive licensing agreement with AstraZeneca for its pan-KRAS inhibitor JAB-23E73, with AstraZeneca receiving rights outside China and joint development/commercialization in China. [17]
Under the deal terms disclosed in the announcement:
- $100 million upfront
- Up to $1.915 billion in development and commercial milestones
- Tiered royalties on net sales outside China [18]
The drug is in Phase 1 trials in China and the U.S., with “early signs of anti-tumor activity” reported in the release. [19]
Why this matters next week: it reinforces a theme that has been building across biopharma—Big Pharma increasingly taps external innovation, including China-originated oncology assets, to refill pipelines. That can lift sentiment across the “platform + pipeline” segment while raising competitive pressure on incumbents in hot target classes like KRAS.
Biosimilars remain a slow-burning catalyst: Eylea settlement sets a 2026 clock
In another headline with multi-quarter implications, Fierce Pharma reported on Dec. 19 that Alvotech and Teva settled with Regeneron and expect to be able to launch an Eylea (aflibercept) biosimilar in the U.S. starting June 2026, subject to royalty terms. [20]
Week-ahead implication: biosimilar competition is increasingly defined by litigation calendars and settlement dates. Even when launches are months away, the market often reprices originators as those clocks become firmer.
FDA catalysts and clinical volatility: approvals, fast-track vouchers, and ad enforcement
Cytokinetics lands a major approval in cardiology
The FDA approved Cytokinetics’ oral drug Myqorzo (aficamten) to treat obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM), giving the company its first FDA-approved product. [21]
Reuters reported:
- Myqorzo is expected to be available in the U.S. in the second half of January
- It carries a boxed warning for heart failure risk and will be available through a REMS safety program
- It competes with Bristol Myers Squibb’s Camzyos (same class) [22]
Week-ahead watch: after the initial approval pop, investors often pivot quickly to pricing, access, and launch execution—topics likely to remain in focus into year-end.
Merck gets two National Priority Vouchers, speeding review timelines
The FDA granted Merck national priority vouchers for:
- Enlicitide (a cholesterol-lowering pill), and
- sac‑TMT (an antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapy). [23]
Reuters described the voucher program as compressing review time to one to two months from the usual 10–12 months, and noted:
- Enlicitide blocks PCSK9, aiming to compete with injectables like Amgen’s Repatha
- sac‑TMT is being developed in an ADC collaboration structure involving China’s Sichuan Kelun-Biotech, and Merck previously disclosed a $700 million funding deal with Blackstone Life Sciences tied to the asset [24]
Week-ahead implication: fast-track regulatory mechanics can become valuation catalysts—especially when they change perceived time-to-market for large commercial categories (cholesterol) or high-value modalities (ADCs).
FDA scrutiny extends to marketing: BMS schizophrenia ad hit with an untitled letter
Fierce Pharma reported that the FDA issued an untitled letter criticizing aspects of a Bristol Myers Squibb TV ad for Cobenfy, including concerns that trial design didn’t support certain implied claims about symptom improvements and patient populations. [25]
Why it matters: direct-to-consumer advertising can influence demand curves, but enforcement actions can force rapid creative changes and sharpen investor focus on label language and real-world differentiation.
Biotech remains “show me” territory: Altimmune plunges despite positive readouts
Altimmune (ALT) shares fell about 20% after the company shared 48-week Phase 2b data for pemvidutide in MASH, even as it said the drug met key success measures (fibrosis markers, liver fat reductions, sustained weight loss) and supported alignment with FDA to move into Phase 3. [26]
Takeaway for the week ahead: in crowded indications like MASH/metabolic disease, the market is not just grading data as “positive/negative”—it is re-pricing based on competitive positioning, magnitude of effect, and Phase 3 risk.
Ipsen also reported a setback: its Phase II FALKON study of fidrisertib in FOP missed its primary endpoint, prompting the company to close the trial. [27]
Europe: EU pharma rules shift and regulatory modernization come into focus
For European-listed pharma, Dec. 19 brought another structural signal: the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said its Management Board welcomed the political agreement on new EU pharmaceutical legislation, calling it a milestone and noting 2026 priorities will heavily focus on preparing for changes introduced by the new framework. [28]
The EMA also highlighted modernization priorities (including digitalization and AI) and adopted a 2026 budget of over €615 million, up 2.6% from 2025, driven by increased fee income from a growing portfolio of centrally authorized products. [29]
Week-ahead relevance: not an immediate trading catalyst, but it adds context for longer-term debates about innovation incentives, approvals, and access—themes that can influence multiples for EU pharma over time.
Pharma stocks week-ahead checklist: what to watch from Dec. 22 to Dec. 26
Here are the catalysts most likely to matter in the near-term tape:
1) Implementation details and “next signatories” on drug pricing
Reuters reported that Regeneron, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie were expected to engage further with the administration after the holidays around the TrumpRx rollout. [30]
Any confirmation, added terms, or pushback could move stocks—especially those perceived as highly exposed to U.S. pricing policy.
2) Medicare pilot programs: industry reaction and lobbying signals
CMS laid out timelines into 2026–2031, but the market will be sensitive to which drug categories ultimately land in GUARD and GLOBE-style benchmarks. [31]
3) Deal follow-through: “risk-on” behavior in a thin week
BioMarin/Amicus is the kind of deal that can spur sympathy moves in adjacent rare disease names. [32]
Meanwhile, the AstraZeneca–Jacobio KRAS licensing deal keeps attention on oncology partnering and “next asset up” speculation. [33]
4) FDA-driven single-name volatility
Approvals (Cytokinetics), fast-track process catalysts (Merck), and marketing enforcement (BMS) underscore that FDA headlines can swing sentiment even in a holiday week. [34]
5) Macro data and holiday liquidity
With early closes and market holidays, the combination of thin trading and macro surprises can swing sector leadership quickly—even for traditionally defensive pharma. [35]
Bottom line
For pharma stocks, the week ahead is less about earnings calendars and more about policy narrative and headline risk:
- The market is digesting a major, multi-company drug pricing agreement that reframes tariff risk and Medicaid exposure in one headline. [36]
- CMS is layering on a longer-term Medicare benchmarking discussion with pilot programs that begin as soon as late 2026. [37]
- Meanwhile, M&A and licensing remain active (BioMarin–Amicus; AstraZeneca–Jacobio), and FDA actions—from approvals to fast-track vouchers to advertising enforcement—continue to create winners and losers. [38]
In a shortened holiday week, the combination of high-impact headlines + low liquidity is exactly what can make pharma stocks move more than usual—sometimes in directions that surprise both bulls and bears.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.whitehouse.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.fiercepharma.com, 16. www.fiercepharma.com, 17. www.barchart.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.fiercepharma.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.fiercepharma.com, 26. www.rttnews.com, 27. www.rttnews.com, 28. www.ema.europa.eu, 29. www.ema.europa.eu, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.barchart.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.investopedia.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.fiercepharma.com
