Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into the week of December 22–26, 2025 with investors juggling two competing narratives: a fundamentally strong, membership-driven retailer that just posted solid quarterly results—versus a stock that has slid meaningfully from its early-2025 highs as valuation concerns, tariff headlines, and a rare “sell” call spark debate.
With U.S. markets entering a holiday-shortened trading week, volatility can be amplified by lighter volumes—making headlines and macro data especially important for near-term direction.
Below is what matters most for Costco stock in the week ahead, based on news and analysis available as of Sunday, December 21, 2025.
Costco stock today: where COST stands heading into the week
Because markets are closed on Sunday, the most recent full-session close is Friday. Costco shares last closed at $855.62 (Dec. 19), near the lower end of its 52-week range ($844.06 to $1,078.23) and well below its early-2025 peak—fueling “dip-buying” arguments while also emboldening valuation skeptics. [1]
That pullback is a big reason Costco has become one of the more actively debated “quality compounder” names to watch into year-end: the business looks resilient, but the market is no longer willing to pay any price.
The biggest COST headlines right now
1) Costco’s profit engine: membership fees (and the crackdown) are back in focus
One of the most widely discussed Costco themes today is that the company’s profitability is less about product markups and more about membership fees. Business Insider highlighted that dynamic this morning—framing Costco’s model as “more like Netflix” than traditional retail, precisely because fees can act like “near-pure profit.” The same report points to very high renewal rates (over 92% in the U.S., nearly 90% globally) and ties Costco’s tighter membership enforcement to protecting that profit stream. [2]
Why it matters for the week ahead: if investors think Costco’s crackdown and fee economics remain intact, COST tends to trade like a “defensive growth” stock. If renewal/traffic metrics soften, valuation becomes the story.
2) Post-earnings debate: “great quarter” vs. “expensive stock”
Costco’s latest quarter delivered a clean beat on key metrics:
- Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Total revenue:$67.31B
- Diluted EPS:$4.50
- Total company comps:6.4% (digitally-enabled comps 20.5%)
- Warehouses:923 worldwide
[3]
Reuters reported Costco’s revenue and profit both topped estimates, and also noted strength in same-day delivery partnerships (Instacart in the U.S., Uber Eats and DoorDash internationally)—a reminder that Costco’s digital and convenience efforts continue to matter. [4]
But the market reaction around Costco this month underscores a key point: beating estimates isn’t always enough when the stock’s valuation is still premium-priced. One widely circulated critique is that Costco’s upside could be capped unless growth or margins re-accelerate. [5]
3) A rare “sell” rating: Roth Capital’s contrarian call
A key December catalyst was a rare “sell” recommendation on Costco. MarketWatch (via Dow Jones) reported that Roth Capital analyst Bill Kirk downgraded Costco and cut the price target to $769, citing concerns including membership trends, competitive pressure (Sam’s Club/BJ’s), and demographic shifts that could weigh on the bulk-buying model. [6]
Investor’s Business Daily echoed the downgrade context, pointing to reported slowing in traffic growth and the debate over Costco’s valuation. [7]
Whether you agree or not, this matters because Costco typically lives in the “few sells, lots of holds/buys” universe—so a prominent sell call can influence sentiment during a low-liquidity holiday week.
4) Wells Fargo trims its target
Wells Fargo lowered its Costco price target to $900 from $1,000, while maintaining an Equal Weight view, according to The Fly/TipRanks reporting. [8]
Separately, Fintel’s compilation (published on Nasdaq.com) cited a broader cross-analyst average one-year price target around $1,071 as of early December—showing the market is still positive overall, even as some firms become more cautious. [9]
5) Tariffs: product mix shifts—and a lawsuit headline risk
Tariffs have been a recurring theme across retail this year, and Costco is now part of that story in two ways:
- Operationally: The Wall Street Journal reported Costco has adjusted parts of its holiday assortment to manage tariff exposure, leaning more on U.S.-produced options and Kirkland/private label in certain categories. [10]
- Legally: Reuters reported Costco filed suit to preserve potential tariff refund rights tied to ongoing legal uncertainty around tariffs imposed under emergency powers—part of a broader wave of litigation. [11]
Investopedia also summarized the lawsuit and why Costco says timing matters to preserve refund eligibility. [12]
For COST stock, tariffs matter less as a one-week earnings variable and more as a headline-driven margin narrative—especially when the stock is already under valuation scrutiny.
Analyst forecasts: what the Street is signaling now
Despite the recent pullback, Wall Street still leans constructive on Costco. What’s changed is that forecasts show wider dispersion—a sign the market is less unified about what multiple Costco deserves.
Here’s how major consensus snapshots look right now:
- MarketBeat: consensus price target $987.58 (roughly mid-teens upside from ~$856) and a “Moderate Buy” style consensus. [13]
- StockAnalysis: average price target around $1,051 with a consensus “Buy,” and a key range including $769 low / $1,225 high (the low aligns with the Roth bearish view). [14]
- Fintel compilation (via Nasdaq.com): average one-year price target around $1,071 with a broad range of forecasts. [15]
On fundamentals, one widely shared outlook (via a Nasdaq.com piece attributed to The Motley Fool) notes that analysts broadly expect fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS growth in the high-single-digits / low-double-digits range (about 8% revenue and 11% EPS growth), followed by another year of growth into fiscal 2027—again, healthy, but not always enough to justify a very high multiple without continued execution on renewals, traffic, and margins. [16]
Technical setup: what traders may watch this week
Costco stock enters the week with a “damaged but potentially stabilizing” technical profile:
- Several technical dashboards show COST trading below key moving averages, which is typically interpreted as a weaker intermediate trend. [17]
- One technical read places support around the mid-$850s and resistance around the low-$900s, which roughly matches where COST has been fighting for direction in mid-December. [18]
A practical way to think about this for the week ahead:
- If COST holds the $844–$855 zone (recent lows and support clusters), the tape may start framing the move as “base-building.” [19]
- If rallies stall into ~$900, that’s where recent analyst commentary and overhead supply could show up quickly. [20]
(As always, technical levels are reference points—not predictions.)
Week-ahead calendar: what could move Costco stock (Dec. 22–26)
Expect a holiday-shortened, headline-sensitive week
U.S. stock markets will be open but with altered hours:
- Early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 (1:00 p.m. ET)
- Closed Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day)
- Open Friday, Dec. 26 for a full session
[21]
That matters for COST because reduced liquidity can exaggerate moves after analyst notes, tariff headlines, or market-wide risk-on/risk-off swings.
Macro data may steer consumer/retail sentiment
Investopedia’s “week ahead” outlook highlights that, even with the holiday, markets are watching major economic releases (including GDP-related updates, consumer confidence, and jobless claims). In a thin week, macro surprises can ripple into consumer staples/discretionary leadership—Costco included. [22]
Costco-specific “retail pulse” catalysts
While Costco does not have an earnings event next week, retail investors will still watch signals tied to traffic and basket size:
- Costco Business Center materials show Instant Savings validity beginning Dec. 22, 2025 through Jan. 19, 2026, which can support post-holiday traffic and member engagement. [23]
- Ongoing discussion around membership enforcement and retention remains the “heartbeat” metric narrative for COST—especially after the sell-side debate about renewal trends. [24]
Costco stock: the bull case vs. the bear case (for the week ahead)
Bull case: high-quality retailer, strong comps, membership economics
The constructive view going into the week looks like this:
- The core quarter was strong (sales +8.2%, comps +6.4%, digitally-enabled +20.5%). [25]
- Costco’s model remains anchored by membership fees and high renewal rates—often seen as stabilizing in uncertain consumer environments. [26]
- Delivery partnerships and digital momentum continue to expand Costco’s convenience footprint. [27]
In a choppy tape, Costco can re-rate as a “sleep-well-at-night” holding if markets rotate defensive.
Bear case: valuation sensitivity, renewal/traffic questions, tariffs as a margin headline
The skeptical view is equally straightforward:
- A rare downgrade to sell has put a spotlight on membership and traffic trajectories—and whether competition is chipping away at Costco’s edge. [28]
- Costco’s valuation remains a sticking point in many analyses, and even bullish long-term writers acknowledge the near-term upside may be limited if the multiple doesn’t expand again. [29]
- Tariffs remain a moving target, and while Costco is adapting its assortment, the broader policy/legal environment adds uncertainty. [30]
References
1. www.fool.com, 2. www.businessinsider.com, 3. investor.costco.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.wsj.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.chartmill.com, 19. www.fool.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.costcobusinessdelivery.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com, 25. investor.costco.com, 26. www.businessinsider.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.wsj.com
