Walmart Stock (WMT) Week Ahead: What to Watch After the Nasdaq Switch, CEO Transition, and Holiday-Shortened Trading Week

Dec. 21, 2025 — Walmart Inc. (ticker: WMT) heads into the Christmas week trading window with investors balancing upbeat operational momentum against a burst of headline risk from Washington, regulators, and the courts. The stock last traded around $114.36 after Friday’s close, setting the stage for a holiday-shortened week that can amplify moves—up or down—because liquidity and volume are typically thinner. ^[1]

This week’s backdrop is unusual even by late-December standards: U.S. markets close early on Wednesday (Dec. 24) and are shut on Thursday (Dec. 25), compressing price discovery into fewer hours. ^[2] Meanwhile, Walmart shareholders are digesting a leadership succession plan, a major exchange transfer now completed, and several legal/regulatory developments that could swing sentiment even if they don’t change Walmart’s core earnings power overnight. ^[3]

Below is a week-ahead, investor-focused briefing on the news flow, analyst forecasts, technical setup, and catalysts most likely to matter for Walmart stock (WMT) from Dec. 22–26, 2025.

Where Walmart stock stands heading into Christmas week

Walmart shares finished the most recent session around $114.36. ^[4] While price action can be choppy into year-end, Walmart has not been trading like a “sleepy staples” name in recent quarters.

Two narrative pillars still dominate most bullish theses:

Stronger-than-expected operating performance into the holidays, reinforced by Walmart’s November quarter results and guidance lift.
A deliberate repositioning of the company as a “tech-powered omnichannel retailer”—a message Walmart itself has been emphasizing as it leans into automation, AI, and marketplace-style growth initiatives. ^[5]

In its most recent earnings cycle, Walmart raised its full-year net sales growth outlook to 4.8%–5.1% (up from 3.75%–4.75%) and lifted its adjusted EPS outlook to $2.58–$2.63 (from $2.52–$2.62), while reporting U.S. comparable sales growth and strong e-commerce momentum. ^[6]

The biggest corporate storyline: CEO transition set for early 2026

One of the most important medium-term catalysts isn’t a product launch or a one-time promotion—it’s leadership.

Walmart announced that John Furner (currently Walmart U.S. CEO) will succeed Doug McMillon as President and CEO effective Feb. 1, 2026. McMillon is set to retire on Jan. 31, 2026, remain on the board through the next annual shareholders’ meeting, and serve as an advisor to Furner through Jan. 31, 2027. ^[7]

Why it matters for WMT stock (even next week):

In the short run, leadership news can influence the market’s willingness to “pay up” for a premium multiple—especially for mega-cap retailers where execution credibility is everything.
In the medium run, investors will watch whether Walmart signals any strategic adjustments (capital returns, e-commerce investment pace, automation spend, margin priorities) as the transition approaches.

Walmart’s Nasdaq move is now done—and investors are still pricing the implications

Walmart has already completed one of the most visible corporate market-structure changes of 2025: it transferred its listing to the Nasdaq Global Select Market, while keeping the WMT ticker. Walmart said the shift aligns with its “tech-powered” long-term strategy and noted the move would take effect Dec. 9, 2025. ^[8]

Nasdaq itself published a technical notice confirming that Walmart was expected to begin listing and trading on Nasdaq on Dec. 9, 2025. ^[9]

A key takeaway for the week ahead: post-transfer “index and flows” chatter can continue to influence day-to-day trading. Even without any immediate index event, large exchange transfers often prompt changes in routing, benchmark behavior, and passive positioning that can create small dislocations in either direction. Reuters described the move as the largest-ever exchange transfer on record, underscoring its significance to market participants beyond Walmart’s fundamentals. ^[10]

Dividend tailwind: next cash payment is coming in early January

For income-focused holders, Walmart’s dividend policy remains a stabilizer.

Walmart’s board approved an annual cash dividend of $0.94 per share for fiscal 2026—a 13% increase from the prior year’s $0.83—and noted it marked the 52nd consecutive year of dividend increases. ^[11]

The company’s schedule shows the Dec. 12, 2025 record date and Jan. 5, 2026 payable date for the most recent quarter. ^[12]

Week-ahead relevance: While the key record date has passed, dividend-paying mega-caps sometimes see incremental support from year-end positioning and income mandates—especially when holiday trading is thin.

Current headline risks investors are watching right now

1) Major holder selling: Walton Family Holdings Trust sale filing

A Reuters/Refinitiv item published via TradingView reported that Walton Family Holdings Trust filed a Form 4 disclosing the sale of 872,000 shares at $114.26 on Dec. 19, 2025, worth about $99.6 million, leaving direct holdings of 525,964,456 shares. ^[13]

This kind of activity doesn’t automatically signal a change in business outlook (large shareholders rebalance for many reasons), but it can affect near-term supply/demand in a holiday week—particularly if traders interpret it as a cue for profit-taking.

2) FDA warning letters: recalled baby formula still on shelves

Reuters reported the U.S. FDA sent warning letters to major retailers—including Walmart—alleging they continued selling recalled ByHeart infant formula linked to an outbreak of infant botulism, even after the recall notice. Reuters cited 51 infants sickened across 19 states and said recalled products were found in Walmart stores across 21 states; the FDA gave retailers 15 working days to explain corrective actions. ^[14]

For Walmart stock, this is more about reputation and regulatory process risk than immediate earnings. But it can still influence sentiment in a low-volume week.

3) New class action allegations involving Pepsi pricing

Reuters also reported a proposed class action alleging a decade-long price-fixing scheme involving PepsiCo and Walmart that allegedly inflated Pepsi soft drink prices at retailers nationwide. Walmart said it was aware of the litigation and emphasized its focus on negotiating value for customers. ^[15]

Legal headlines like these can generate short-lived volatility even if the ultimate financial impact is uncertain and likely far in the future.

4) Payment fees: Walmart objects to Visa/Mastercard settlement

In another court-related development, Reuters reported Walmart and other retailers urged a federal judge to reject a proposed Visa/Mastercard antitrust settlement, arguing it offers “no meaningful relief” for large merchants and forces them to release claims without core reforms (including rules around accepting all cards if accepting any). The settlement would cut swipe fees by 0.1 percentage point for five years, Reuters said. ^[16]

Because payment fees touch retail margins, this topic can matter to valuation narratives—especially when investors are already debating how much operating leverage Walmart can extract from automation and e-commerce.

5) Shareholder pressure on immigration policy disclosures

Reuters reported SOC Investment Group sent letters to Walmart (and others) asking how U.S. President Donald Trump’s immigration policies could impact finances and supply chains, pointing to a proposed $100,000 fee structure for new H-1B visa approvals and potential ripple effects for trucking and farming labor availability. ^[17]

For Walmart, the market will likely treat this as a watch-item: potentially meaningful if it evolves into a broader cost or labor availability issue, but not necessarily a near-term earnings driver unless policy changes accelerate quickly.

WMT stock forecast: what Wall Street expects from here

Analyst target data remains broadly constructive, though upside expectations (from current levels) look more measured than earlier in the year.

StockAnalysis shows 29 analysts rate Walmart a “Strong Buy” with an average target price of $119.03 (about +4.08% from $114.36), with a low of $91 and high of $130. ^[18]
MarketBeat, using a different methodology and analyst count, shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target of $120.54 (about +5.40% upside), with a low of $91 and high of $135. ^[19]

Notable recent changes: StockAnalysis lists a Dec. 19 update showing Wells Fargo maintaining a Buy while lifting a target from $120 to $130. ^[20]

How to interpret that for the week ahead:
When consensus targets imply only mid-single-digit upside, the stock tends to become more sensitive to:

incremental news that changes confidence in the next guidance cycle, or
factors that alter the “multiple” investors are willing to pay (risk appetite, rate expectations, and headline risk).

Technical analysis snapshot: support/resistance levels traders may watch

Technical signals are not guarantees, but they often matter more during short holiday weeks because fewer institutions are actively setting fundamental price anchors.

TipRanks’ technical dashboard (as of Dec. 20) flagged several moving-average-based “Buy” signals, while also showing some mixed short-term momentum indicators:

20-day EMA: 112.36 vs price $114.83 (Buy)
50-day EMA: 108.21 vs price $114.83 (Buy)
RSI (14): 62.07 (Neutral)
MACD: 2.93 (Sell on that measure)
Pivot point area clustered around the mid-$114 to $116 range, with support levels around $113.70–$115.02 and resistance levels building above $115.71–$117.66 (classic pivots). ^[21]

Practical takeaway for Dec. 22–26:
With early closes and potentially lower liquidity, breaks above or below nearby pivot areas can look “bigger” than they are. Traders often wait for post-holiday confirmation (the following week) before treating moves as trend changes.

The week-ahead calendar: trading hours and macro catalysts that can move WMT

Holiday trading hours (important for volatility)

NYSE confirms early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025 and markets closed on Christmas Day, Dec. 25. ^[22]
Nasdaq’s 2025 holiday calendar also shows Dec. 24 early close at 1:00 p.m. and Dec. 25 closed. ^[23]
Investopedia likewise notes stocks close at 1 p.m. EST Wednesday and bonds at 2 p.m. EST, with markets closed Thursday. ^[24]

Economic data (why Walmart investors should care)

Investopedia highlights several potentially market-moving releases despite the shortened week, including:

A delayed initial Q3 U.S. GDP report expected Tuesday (with fewer estimates due to a government shutdown-related delay)
Durable goods orders
Industrial production and capacity utilization
Consumer confidence (Tuesday)
Jobless claims (Wednesday) ^[25]

Walmart can react to this data in two distinct ways:

As a consumer barometer: confidence and jobs data influence near-term retail sentiment broadly.
As a defensive mega-cap: in risk-off tape, Walmart sometimes benefits from “quality/defensive” rotation; in risk-on tape, it can lag higher-beta consumer discretionary names.

What could drive Walmart stock this week: bull vs. bear scenarios

Bull case for WMT (Dec. 22–26)

Macro prints (confidence, jobless claims) come in supportive enough to keep the market in a stable-to-positive tone, lifting mega-cap quality stocks. ^[26]
Investors lean into Walmart’s most recent guidance increase and e-commerce strength as evidence the company is still taking share into the holidays. ^[27]
Legal/regulatory headlines don’t escalate (no new adverse developments), allowing the stock to trade more on fundamentals than noise. ^[28]

Bear case for WMT (Dec. 22–26)

Thin liquidity amplifies any risk-off moves, especially if consumer confidence disappoints or jobless claims surprise to the upside, reviving concerns about demand softness. ^[29]
Fresh headlines extend the current theme of “non-operational risk” (FDA process, litigation updates, payments-fee fight), prompting short-term derisking. ^[30]
Traders interpret major-holder selling activity as a near-term ceiling and fade rallies during the shortened week. ^[31]

Bottom line: the cleanest “week-ahead” checklist for WMT investors

If you’re watching Walmart stock (WMT) into Christmas week, the most actionable checklist looks like this:

Respect the calendar: early close Wednesday, closed Thursday—moves can be exaggerated. ^[32]
Track macro tone (GDP, confidence, jobless claims) because it can override single-stock narratives in thin holiday tape. ^[33]
Separate fundamentals from headlines: most recent guidance and e-commerce commentary remain the primary fundamental anchors, while lawsuits and FDA actions are headline risks that may or may not become financially material. ^[34]
Know the Street’s expectations: consensus targets imply mid-single-digit upside, so surprises (good or bad) can matter more than usual. ^[35]
Watch the transition narrative: the CEO handoff to John Furner in early 2026 is a real medium-term catalyst that can quietly influence how investors think about Walmart’s next “chapter.” ^[36]