December 21, 2025 — Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) heads into the Christmas-shortened trading week with investors balancing two powerful, and competing, narratives: a long-term U.S. manufacturing expansion that just hit an operational milestone, and a near-term debate about margins, inventories, and valuation as the analog chip cycle recovers unevenly.
TXN closed $176.29 on Friday, December 19 (up 0.06% on the day), and finished the last five trading sessions down modestly from $179.42 on December 12, reflecting cautious positioning into year-end. [1]
Below is what matters most for the week ahead (Dec. 22–26, 2025)—the latest company headlines, the key analyst calls driving sentiment, and the market calendar that could influence semiconductor stocks during thin holiday liquidity.
The biggest TXN headline right now: Sherman’s SM1 fab is officially in production
Texas Instruments announced on December 17 that it has started production at its newest 300mm wafer fabrication facility in Sherman, Texas, known as SM1, roughly three and a half years after breaking ground. TI said SM1 will ramp “according to customer demand” and, at scale, is designed to produce tens of millions of chips daily used across end markets ranging from smartphones and automotive systems to industrial robots, medical devices, and data centers. [2]
Strategically, Sherman is meant to be far bigger than a single fab. TI says its Sherman mega-site includes plans for up to four connected wafer fabs, aligned to market demand, supporting as many as 3,000 direct jobs (plus additional jobs in supporting industries). [3]
This milestone also fits into a broader onshoring and capacity strategy: TI has announced plans to invest more than $60 billion across seven U.S. semiconductor fabs in Texas and Utah—described by the company as the largest investment in foundational semiconductor manufacturing in U.S. history. [4]
Why the market cares (and why it’s controversial)
For bulls, SM1 moving from construction to production reduces execution risk: it’s proof the multi-year capex cycle is translating into real output and customer shipments—especially relevant if trade policy continues to favor domestic production capacity.
For skeptics, the question isn’t whether Sherman is impressive—it’s whether the timing is optimal. Heavy fab investment can pressure free cash flow and margins if utilization ramps slowly, demand stays soft, or depreciation rises faster than revenue.
That tension is a major reason analyst opinions have stayed split into late 2025.
Analyst sentiment into the week: “Hold” consensus, but unusually wide disagreement
As of December 21, MarketBeat’s aggregated view shows TXN at a “Hold” consensus based on 30 analyst ratings, with a breakdown of 7 Sell, 10 Hold, 11 Buy, and 2 Strong Buy ratings. [5]
The average 12‑month price target cited is $191.49, which implies roughly 8.6% upside from around $176.29—but the spread is wide, with a high target of $245 and a low target of $125. [6]
That dispersion matters for the week ahead because it tells you something important: TXN is not trading on a single clean consensus thesis right now. It’s trading on a tug-of-war between (1) long-term supply-chain control and capacity, and (2) near-term profitability and cyclicality.
The call that reset the debate: Goldman’s rare double-downgrade to Sell
A major driver of recent caution was a widely discussed “double downgrade” by Goldman Sachs, moving TXN from Buy to Sell and cutting the price target to $156 from $200.
The core concern (as summarized in market coverage of the note) is that even if the analog semiconductor cycle is beginning to improve, TI’s inventory and utilization strategy—paired with rising depreciation tied to expanded capacity—could lead TXN’s earnings recovery to lag peers.
This critique ties directly to Sherman: SM1 is a strategic win, but also emblematic of the near-term margin debate.
Counterweight to the downgrade: price targets moved up at Truist and Cantor
Not every analyst response has been negative.
- Truist raised its TXN price target to $195 from $175 while keeping a Hold rating, as part of broader semiconductor and AI group updates tied to longer-range estimates. [7]
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $190 from $170, maintaining a Neutral rating. [8]
These are not “pounding-the-table” upgrades, but they do signal that some analysts see TXN’s valuation as more reasonable after prior weakness—and that the market may be re-pricing longer-term earnings power even if the near-term remains choppy.
Macro and fundamentals still matter: tariffs, industrial demand, and the pace of analog recovery
The biggest fundamental swing factor for TXN remains the demand environment for analog chips—especially industrial end markets—and how trade policy uncertainty influences customer spending.
In its October 21 outlook coverage, Reuters reported that TI forecast fourth-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, with management pointing to customers staying cautious amid tariff uncertainty. Reuters also noted TI’s longer-term manufacturing push (including the company’s commitment to spend more than $60 billion to expand its U.S. footprint) in the context of policy uncertainty around future semiconductor tariffs. [9]
For the week ahead, this backdrop matters because macro headlines can move cyclical semiconductors quickly—especially in holiday trading when liquidity is thinner.
Week-ahead market mechanics: Christmas schedule + key U.S. data releases
This is not a normal five-session week.
U.S. equity markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, and will be closed on Thursday, December 25 for Christmas. [10]
Bond market recommendations also call for an early close at 2:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24 and a full close on Dec. 25. [11]
Why that matters for TXN traders
Holiday weeks can amplify moves in both directions:
- Fewer participants and lighter volume can mean outsized price swings on modest news.
- Options positioning and end-of-year portfolio adjustments can create sharp reversals.
- Semiconductor stocks can be especially sensitive to rate moves and risk sentiment.
The economic calendar to watch
Investopedia’s week-ahead preview highlighted a shortened market week but still noted several potentially market-moving U.S. releases, including GDP, durable goods, industrial production, consumer confidence, and jobless claims (with scheduling influenced by the holiday). [12]
For TXN specifically, any data that shifts expectations for industrial activity—or moves Treasury yields sharply—can influence the group’s tone, even without company-specific headlines.
What technical signals suggest going into the week
Technical indicators won’t predict news, but they do show positioning and momentum.
As of Dec. 19 (data timestamp shown by Investing.com), Investing.com’s daily technical readout cited:
- RSI(14): 43.945 (flagged as “Sell”)
- MACD(12,26): -0.350 (flagged as “Sell”) [13]
Meanwhile, Barchart’s technical table shows TXN’s:
- 50-day moving average: 169.27
- 200-day moving average: 181.58 [14]
A practical way to interpret this setup for the week ahead:
- The $180–$182 zone (near longer-term averages) is a psychologically important area where some investors may look for confirmation that the post-downgrade selling pressure has eased.
- The high $160s to low $170s region aligns with intermediate trend measures and could act as a “line in the sand” if risk sentiment worsens during the holiday week.
Week-ahead catalysts checklist for TXN holders
Here’s what investors are most likely to focus on between Monday (Dec. 22) and Friday (Dec. 26):
1) Any follow-through on the Sherman narrative
The market often digests major capex/manufacturing headlines over multiple sessions. Expect continued debate on whether SM1 strengthens TI’s competitive moat—or reinforces worries about capital intensity and near-term margin drag. [15]
2) Analyst note echoes (and whether downgrades keep coming)
The Goldman double-downgrade raised the bar for confidence in the 2026 recovery story. If additional firms reiterate caution on valuation, inventories, or margins, it could weigh on TXN into year-end.
3) Rates and macro data shocks during low-liquidity sessions
If GDP/consumer confidence/jobless claims materially surprise, the knock-on effects through yields and equity risk appetite can move semiconductors broadly. [16]
4) “Santa Claus rally” sentiment (broader market context)
Market coverage continues to discuss the historical “Santa Claus rally” window and whether broad equities can sustain year-end strength—an important tailwind (or headwind) for diversified mega-cap tech and semiconductors alike. [17]
Bottom line: TXN enters the holiday week as a “proof vs. price” story
Texas Instruments now has fresh evidence that its U.S. manufacturing plan is delivering—SM1 is producing chips and is positioned to ramp. [18]
But the stock is also priced as a high-quality compounder, and analysts remain divided on whether the next leg of the analog cycle will translate into clean margin expansion—or whether inventories, depreciation, and muted industrial demand keep results “good, not great” into 2026. [19]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.ti.com, 3. www.ti.com, 4. www.ti.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.sifma.org, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.ti.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.ti.com, 19. www.reuters.com
