NEW YORK — Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) heads into the Christmas-shortened trading week with investor attention split between two forces: the crypto tape (bitcoin and broader risk sentiment) and Coinbase’s accelerating push to become an “everything exchange” spanning crypto, stocks, derivatives, and prediction markets.
Coinbase shares ended the last full week at $245.12 on Friday, Dec. 19, after swinging sharply intraday and closing lower than the prior Friday’s $267.46—a weekly decline of about 8% based on closing prices. [1] Meanwhile, bitcoin was trading around $88,316 over the weekend—still the dominant driver of sentiment for most “crypto-linked” equities, including COIN.
Below is what matters for COIN in the week ahead (Dec. 22–26), based on the latest news, analyst notes, and market catalysts available as of 21.12.2025.
Where Coinbase stock stands heading into the holiday week
The setup for COIN is unusually headline-sensitive because liquidity tends to thin out into Christmas, and Coinbase is both:
- a high-beta equity tied to crypto prices and trading activity, and
- a company in the middle of a visible product expansion cycle.
From a pure tape perspective, last week showed the tension clearly. COIN traded as high as $268.58 (Dec. 15) and as low as $239.10 (Dec. 18), before settling at $245.12 on Dec. 19. [2] The stock’s ability to hold above the mid-$240s while bitcoin finds direction is likely to shape the near-term narrative.
The biggest Coinbase headline: “System Update” and the race to become the “everything exchange”
Coinbase’s most important company-specific catalyst coming into this week is its December “System Update”—a broad product package designed to expand what users can trade and do inside the Coinbase ecosystem.
In its Dec. 17 announcement, Coinbase said the rollout includes:
- the start of stock trading and prediction markets inside the main Coinbase app,
- a simpler interface to trade futures and perps,
- the ability to trade Solana assets “as soon as they’re created,”
- primary token sales,
- the global launch of the Base App (an onchain “everything app”), and
- general availability of Coinbase Business. [3]
Stock trading inside Coinbase: why investors care
Coinbase says it is beginning to roll out stock trading to U.S. users, allowing customers to buy, sell, and manage stocks and ETFs alongside crypto portfolios, using USD or USDC. Coinbase also emphasized zero-commission trading and the ability to trade “24 hours a day, five days a week,” with plans to add thousands more stocks over coming months. [4]
Strategically, this matters because Coinbase has long been viewed as a levered proxy to crypto market cycles. Moving into stocks, tokenization, and event contracts is a direct attempt to diversify revenue and keep users active even when crypto volumes cool.
Tokenized stocks and stock perpetuals: the “always-on” endgame
Coinbase also framed stock trading as a stepping-stone toward tokenized stocks and said it plans to broaden stock perpetuals so non-U.S. traders can access U.S. stock exposure through a Coinbase interface. [5]
That’s a bigger story than a feature launch: it’s Coinbase attempting to extend its “always-on markets” identity into traditional assets.
Prediction markets: a fresh growth vector—and an immediate legal fight
Coinbase’s move into prediction markets is arriving in a crowded—and increasingly contested—space.
Reuters reported Coinbase plans to partner with Kalshi for event contracts and highlighted how prediction markets could become a meaningful revenue pool over time, with one analyst estimate pegging the market at roughly $2 billion in revenue now and potentially growing five-fold by 2030. [6]
The week-ahead risk: state pushback turns into lawsuits
In the most immediate development, Coinbase has filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Illinois, and Michigan seeking to block those states from applying gambling rules to prediction markets and to establish that event contracts fall under federal oversight. [7]
Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal wrote that “prediction markets fall squarely under the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” not state gaming regulators. [8]
Why this matters for COIN this week:
- Even if the market’s long-term direction is “everything exchange,” the near-term path runs through regulators and courts.
- Any additional state actions, temporary restraints, or fast-moving headlines could impact sentiment quickly—especially in a thin holiday week.
Competition is heating up: Robinhood and others are building the same “event contracts” muscle
Coinbase isn’t expanding in a vacuum. Reuters reported Robinhood has expanded sports-focused event contracts and described the surge in prediction-market activity—citing monthly trading values rising from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion. [9]
The implication for COIN is double-edged:
- A rapidly growing market can lift multiple platforms.
- But competition can compress margins and increase regulatory scrutiny, especially if policymakers start treating event contracts as “sports betting by another name.”
Regulatory backdrop: a clearer SEC picture, but market-structure uncertainty remains
A major overhang removed: the SEC’s Coinbase enforcement action was dismissed
One of the most important context points for investors is that the SEC has dismissed its civil enforcement action against Coinbase (a case originally filed in 2023). [10]
That shift is frequently cited by the industry as reducing existential regulatory risk versus prior years.
But the next phase is still political
Reuters has also emphasized that while 2025 brought crypto industry wins—such as dismissals of major lawsuits and passage of stablecoin rules—crypto market structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, leaving uncertainty that could re-emerge depending on future administrations. [11]
For COIN in the week ahead, this backdrop matters because policy tone often drives:
- risk appetite in crypto,
- institutional positioning in crypto-related equities,
- and investor willingness to pay premium multiples for “platform expansion” narratives.
International influence push: George Osborne to chair Coinbase advisory council
Coinbase is also signaling that it wants policy leverage outside the U.S. Reuters reported that Coinbase appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne to lead its internal advisory council, aligning with Coinbase’s effort to shape crypto policy in the UK and EU. [12]
This is not likely to move the stock day-to-day this week, but it reinforces the strategic message: Coinbase wants to be seen as infrastructure for mainstream finance, not just a trading venue.
Trust and security headlines: scams, arbitration, and reputational risk
Security and consumer-protection narratives have a way of resurfacing during volatile markets—especially when retail participation rises.
“Customer-care” impersonation scheme and Coinbase response
Coinbase published details on Dec. 19 about working with the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office in a case involving an alleged impersonation/social-engineering scam, stressing there was no evidence of a Coinbase security breach in that specific incident and reiterating that Coinbase will never ask users to transfer funds to a “safe wallet.” [13]
Separately, Business Insider reported a Brooklyn man was charged in a $15 million scheme impersonating Coinbase customer care, allegedly targeting around 100 victims. [14]
Arbitration award adds another layer
InvestmentNews reported that Coinbase Inc. (a subsidiary) lost a private arbitration claim with damages and costs totaling $618,000, tied to an alleged 2024 account takeover via social engineering, and the report referenced an arbitration statement about a third-party vendor breach timeline. [15]
Why include this in a week-ahead COIN preview?
- COIN’s valuation depends heavily on trust and platform durability.
- Security headlines can affect user acquisition costs, retention, and regulatory posture—even if they don’t change quarterly numbers immediately.
Wall Street forecasts: consensus remains bullish—while targets span a wide range
Analyst expectations for COIN remain polarized, which is normal for a stock that combines:
- crypto exposure,
- regulatory headline risk,
- and rapid product expansion.
Consensus view (directionally positive)
MarketBeat’s aggregated data shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with an average 12‑month price target around $383.54 (with targets ranging from roughly $230 to $510 in that dataset). [16]
Nasdaq/Fintel coverage similarly pointed to a wide distribution of targets and highlighted how price-target ranges can vary materially across firms and time. [17]
Recent notable updates tied to the “everything exchange” strategy
An Investing.com report noted:
- BTIG maintained a $420 target after Coinbase’s product showcase,
- Deutsche Bank initiated with a Buy and a $340 target,
- and Mizuho adjusted its target to $280 (Neutral), citing lower bitcoin prices and reduced expected trading volumes. [18]
Takeaway for next week: the Street debate is less about “can Coinbase survive?” and more about how big Coinbase’s addressable market becomes if stocks, tokenization, and event contracts gain traction—and whether regulation allows those products to scale.
The calendar: a Christmas-shortened week with key macro prints
Market hours matter this week
U.S. equity markets are scheduled to be closed on Christmas Day (Thursday, Dec. 25), and Christmas Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 24) typically features an early close (NYSE and Nasdaq holiday schedules reflect the shortened session). [19]
For COIN specifically, reduced liquidity can amplify moves driven by:
- bitcoin volatility,
- crypto market headlines,
- or sudden regulatory/legal updates around prediction markets.
Macro data: fewer releases, but still enough to move risk assets
Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar highlights that markets will still digest key data points such as GDP-related updates and consumer indicators, despite the holiday schedule. [20]
Rates sensitivity remains relevant too. Reuters highlighted comments attributed to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggesting no need to change rates for months—language that can influence risk assets broadly (including crypto). [21]
Week-ahead checklist for COIN investors: what to watch day by day
Here’s a practical framework for the week:
1) Bitcoin direction sets the tone
COIN remains highly correlated to crypto risk sentiment. If bitcoin breaks strongly above or below recent ranges, COIN often follows—sometimes with leverage. [22]
2) Follow-through (or fade) from the “System Update”
Watch for:
- additional rollout details,
- user access expansion,
- and any regulatory commentary around always-on stock trading, tokenization, and perps. [23]
3) Prediction-market legal headlines
Any developments involving Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Kalshi, or broader event-contract oversight could become an outsized driver in a low-volume week. [24]
4) Competitive tape: Robinhood and the event-contract narrative
If event contracts remain a high-visibility theme, Robinhood’s expansion and regulatory scrutiny could impact the whole “financial super-app” cohort’s valuation multiples—COIN included. [25]
5) Trust/safety headlines
Scams and arbitration narratives can influence brand perception and may resurface during periods of heightened retail trading. [26]
Bottom line for the week ahead
Coinbase enters the Dec. 22–26 week as a stock with two simultaneous storylines:
- Near-term: COIN will likely trade as a high-beta expression of crypto risk sentiment into a holiday schedule, where liquidity can exaggerate swings. [27]
- Medium-term narrative catalyst: Coinbase’s “everything exchange” push—stocks (24/5), tokenization ambitions, perps, Solana asset access, prediction markets, and payments tooling—gives bulls a clear roadmap for diversifying beyond pure crypto spot trading. [28]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.coinbase.com, 4. www.coinbase.com, 5. www.coinbase.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.financemagnates.com, 8. x.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.coinbase.com, 14. www.businessinsider.com, 15. www.investmentnews.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.coinbase.com, 24. www.financemagnates.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.coinbase.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.coinbase.com
