Home Depot (NYSE: HD) heads into Monday’s U.S. stock market open with investors balancing three big forces: a cautious near-term outlook for fiscal 2026, signs of a housing market that’s stabilizing but still constrained, and a company strategy that’s leaning harder into Pro customers, distribution, and productivity initiatives. [1]
Friday’s close added a fresh reminder that sentiment can swing quickly in a holiday-shortened week—especially for rate-sensitive consumer and housing-linked names like Home Depot. [2]
Key takeaways before the bell
- HD stock last closed at $345.00, finishing the latest session down about 2.8%. [3]
- Home Depot reaffirmed fiscal 2025 guidance (including about 3% total sales growth) and laid out a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook calling for flat to 2% comp growth and 2.5% to 4.5% total sales growth—a tone Reuters noted was below some Street expectations. [4]
- The company continues to position SRS + GMS as a key “Pro ecosystem” growth lever, with management highlighting cross-selling and productivity opportunities. [5]
- Housing data remains mixed: existing-home sales rose modestly in November to a 4.13 million SAAR, but supply is tight and affordability remains a constraint—important because turnover and big projects often drive bigger-ticket home improvement spend. [6]
- There’s also headline risk from a reported security issue involving a leaked credential that allegedly provided access to internal systems—something investors may monitor for follow-through disclosures or reputational impact. [7]
HD stock price check: where shares stand heading into Dec. 22
Home Depot shares last closed at $345.00, with the latest session showing a sharp pullback into the lower end of the year’s range. [8]
From a longer lens, HD has traded between $326.31 and $426.75 over the past 52 weeks, and was recently still well below its 52-week high set in September. [9]
Some widely followed technical-style indicators compiled by market data services show HD trading below key trend lines, with a 50-day moving average around 365.81, a 200-day moving average around 373.68, and an RSI around 40.5—figures that often signal “cooling” momentum rather than a strongly overbought condition. [10]
The biggest current story: Home Depot’s 2026 outlook and “market recovery” scenario
The most market-relevant headline for HD right now is management’s strategic update and its framing for what comes next.
Fiscal 2025 guidance reaffirmed
Home Depot reaffirmed its updated fiscal 2025 expectations, including:
- Total sales growth ~3% (with GMS expected to contribute about $2 billion of incremental sales)
- Comparable sales slightly positive (on a comparable 52-week basis)
- Operating margin ~12.6% and adjusted operating margin ~13.0%
- Diluted EPS down ~6% and adjusted diluted EPS down ~5% versus fiscal 2024
- Capex ~2.5% of sales [11]
Preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook: cautious, rate-and-housing sensitive
For fiscal 2026, the company’s preliminary outlook includes:
- Home improvement market estimated in a range between -1% to +1%
- Comparable sales growth roughly flat to 2%
- Total sales growth roughly 2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin roughly 12.4% to 12.6% (adjusted 12.8% to 13.0%)
- EPS (and adjusted EPS) expected to increase flat to 4% [12]
Reuters highlighted that Home Depot’s fiscal 2026 forecast implied comp growth and profit dynamics below some analyst expectations, tying the tone to cooling demand for DIY projects and big-ticket items amid a pressured housing backdrop. [13]
The “Market Recovery Case”: what management thinks could happen if housing turns
Home Depot also offered a “Market Recovery Case,” essentially a scenario framework for what performance could look like if housing activity and larger projects re-accelerate. The company outlined:
- Total sales growth ~5% to 6%
- Total comp sales growth ~4% to 5%
- Operating profit growth faster than sales
- EPS growth in the mid-to-high single digits [14]
For investors, this matters because HD’s multiple often expands when the market believes the company is moving from “maintenance spending” to “bigger projects,” which tend to drive higher-ticket transactions and operating leverage.
Q3 fiscal 2025 recap: the storm factor, mixed monthly comps, and digital strength
Home Depot’s most recent quarterly results still shape the narrative going into the end of the year.
In Q3 fiscal 2025, Home Depot reported:
- Sales of $41.4 billion (up 2.8% year over year)
- Comparable sales up 0.2% (U.S. comps up 0.1%)
- GAAP diluted EPS $3.62; adjusted diluted EPS $3.74 [15]
Management attributed the miss versus internal expectations largely to a lack of storm activity, which pressured certain categories, alongside ongoing consumer uncertainty and housing pressure. [16]
One detail investors often key in on: comps were not steady through the quarter. The earnings-call transcript cited comps positive in August and September but negative in October, which can influence how traders handicap near-term momentum. [17]
Meanwhile, Home Depot said online comp sales (sales leveraging digital platforms) increased about 11% year over year, pointing to continued traction in delivery speed and “interconnected” retail initiatives. [18]
Pro strategy and acquisitions: why SRS and GMS are central to the bull case
If there’s a single strategic bet Home Depot wants investors to focus on right now, it’s the Pro customer.
GMS deal: expanding distribution reach
Home Depot’s SRS Distribution subsidiary entered an agreement to acquire GMS Inc. in a transaction valued at about $5.5 billion (including debt), positioning the combined footprint around interior and exterior building products distribution—important categories for contractors and remodelers. [19]
In Q3, Home Depot said total sales included about $900 million from GMS (roughly eight weeks of sales in the quarter). [20]
Cross-selling and productivity ambitions
In the investor meeting transcript, management discussed bundling GMS’s interior products with SRS’s exterior offerings and building capabilities (including national accounts) to serve larger customers like homebuilders and multi-regional contractors. [21]
Management also reiterated a long-term capital allocation framework that prioritizes investing in the business, paying the dividend, and returning excess cash via share repurchases, while maintaining a leverage target and aiming to delever back toward ~2x debt-to-EBITDAR by around the end of 2026. [22]
Home Depot’s technology and productivity push: AI tools and creator-led marketing
Beyond macro and M&A, Home Depot has continued to message investments in customer experience and productivity.
AI blueprint takeoffs for Pros
Home Depot recently announced an AI-powered “blueprint takeoffs” capability aimed at Pros—designed to help streamline quoting and material planning, reducing the time needed to turn plans into a purchasable list. The company framed it as part of improving speed and convenience for professional customers. [23]
Creator Portal: retail media meets home improvement
Home Depot also launched a Creator Portal, positioned as a way to connect creators with the brand and products—an initiative that fits broader retail trends where merchants blend content, commerce, and advertising monetization. [24]
From an investor standpoint, these aren’t usually day-to-day stock movers like comps or margins—but they can influence the longer-term debate over whether Home Depot can defend share, expand engagement, and improve conversion across digital and store channels.
Cybersecurity headline risk: the leaked credential report
A separate storyline investors may keep on their radar this week: a security researcher told TechCrunch they found a GitHub access token allegedly belonging to a Home Depot employee that—when tested—provided access to private repositories and the ability to modify contents. [25]
Additional cybersecurity-focused coverage described the token as potentially enabling access to internal systems tied to operations like fulfillment and inventory management. [26]
What typically matters for stocks in situations like this isn’t just the initial report—it’s whether there is any confirmed breach impact, follow-on disclosure, customer-facing disruption, or regulatory/legal fallout. As of the reporting cited above, investors may see this as a monitoring item rather than a quantified financial event.
Macro backdrop: rates, housing turnover, and why HD investors keep watching the data
Home Depot tends to trade as a “housing and rates” proxy because big remodels and high-ticket categories often correlate with consumer confidence, housing turnover, and financing conditions.
Existing-home sales: slight improvement, but affordability constraints persist
U.S. existing-home sales increased 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to both Reuters coverage and the National Association of REALTORS®. [27]
Inventory remained tight (NAR cited 1.43 million units and 4.2 months’ supply), while the median price rose 1.2% year over year to $409,200. [28]
For HD, the key question is whether improved sales activity translates into higher discretionary project demand—or whether homeowners keep delaying larger renovations due to rate sensitivity and economic uncertainty.
Homebuilder sentiment: improving, still challenged
Reuters reported that U.S. homebuilder sentiment ticked up in December to an eight-month high but remained below the “neutral” level, with builders citing higher costs and labor challenges, even as mortgage rates eased. [29]
Fed policy: “higher for longer” risk isn’t gone
On rates, Reuters also reported comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicating there may be no need to change rates for several months, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns after recent cuts. [30]
For Home Depot investors, the takeaway is straightforward: if the bond market reprices toward steadier or higher rates, it can weigh on housing activity and big-ticket discretionary spending; if rates fall and confidence returns, HD’s “market recovery” case becomes easier to underwrite.
Analyst forecasts and valuation: what the Street is modeling now
Analyst views vary by dataset, but consensus still leans positive—tempered by the near-term housing reality.
- One consensus compilation shows an average price target around $421 with a “Buy”-leaning consensus, though individual targets span widely. [31]
- Another compilation pegs the average target closer to $398, underscoring that “consensus” depends on coverage set and update timing. [32]
- A Morningstar analysis following Q3 results said it maintained a $335 fair value estimate and characterized shares as fairly valued in that framework. [33]
The practical message for Monday: HD isn’t being priced like a high-growth retailer. The debate is whether the company can use Pro expansion, productivity, and easing rate pressure to re-accelerate earnings growth—without sacrificing margins through mix shift and integration costs.
What to watch this week: catalysts for HD stock beyond company headlines
Holiday-shortened trading week mechanics
Markets are open Monday, with an early close on Wednesday, Dec. 24, and closed Thursday for Christmas. Reuters reported major exchanges intend to remain open on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 despite federal office closures, consistent with exchange calendars. [34]
Thin liquidity can amplify moves—especially in mega-cap, widely held names like Home Depot.
Economic calendar risk: GDP and durable goods (Tuesday)
Market calendars show GDP (delayed Q3 report) and durable goods on Tuesday—data points that can move rates and cyclicals broadly even if not directly tied to Home Depot’s quarter. [35]
Next big company catalyst: earnings timing
Zacks lists Home Depot’s next earnings release as expected around Feb. 24, 2026, with its own modeled EPS expectation for that report. [36]
(As always, investors will want to verify the company-confirmed date when Home Depot posts it.)
Bottom line for Dec. 22: the HD setup in one paragraph
Into Monday’s open, Home Depot stock is trading in a softer technical posture near the lower half of its 52-week range, while the fundamental narrative is defined by a conservative 2026 outlook and the market’s ongoing “rates and housing” tug-of-war. [37] The upside case hinges on housing momentum returning enough to unlock larger projects and let Home Depot’s Pro distribution strategy (SRS + GMS) and productivity initiatives show through, while the downside case is that high rates, weak turnover, and consumer uncertainty keep demand muted longer than expected—and that headline risks (including cybersecurity reporting) add friction. [38]
References
1. ir.homedepot.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. ir.homedepot.com, 5. ir.homedepot.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. techcrunch.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. ir.homedepot.com, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. ir.homedepot.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. ir.homedepot.com, 19. ir.homedepot.com, 20. ir.homedepot.com, 21. ir.homedepot.com, 22. ir.homedepot.com, 23. ir.homedepot.com, 24. ir.homedepot.com, 25. techcrunch.com, 26. www.csoonline.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.nar.realtor, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. growthinvesting.net, 33. www.morningstar.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.marketwatch.com, 36. www.zacks.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. www.reuters.com
