Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) heads into the Dec. 22, 2025 market open with investors balancing two powerful narratives: a renewed push into data center AI and high-speed connectivity (now backed by a fresh acquisition), and persistent handset-related uncertainty tied to global smartphone demand, regulatory scrutiny, and the long-discussed risk of Apple reducing modem reliance.
As of the most recent session before Monday’s open, QCOM closed at $175.25 on Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, with after-hours trading around $175.75, giving the company a market capitalization near $186 billion. The stock has traded between $120.80 and $205.95 over the past 52 weeks, underscoring both the upside investors have recently priced in—and the volatility that can return quickly when sentiment shifts. [1]
Below is a detailed, news-driven breakdown of what matters most before the opening bell.
Qualcomm stock snapshot: price, valuation, dividend, and next catalyst
Where QCOM stands heading into Monday (Dec. 22):
- Last close (Dec. 19): $175.25
- After-hours (Dec. 19): ~$175.75
- Market cap: ~$186.29B
- P/E (ttm): ~34.98
- Forward P/E: ~14.46
- Annual dividend: $3.56 per share (about 2.03% yield)
- Next earnings date (scheduled):Feb. 4, 2026 [2]
On shareholder returns, Qualcomm’s board declared a $0.89 quarterly cash dividend, paid Dec. 18, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 4, 2025. [3]
The headline driving Qualcomm now: a data center expansion gets real
Qualcomm completes Alphawave Semi acquisition (Dec. 18, 2025)
One of the most material near-term developments is that Qualcomm completed its acquisition of Alphawave Semi on Dec. 18, 2025, roughly one quarter ahead of schedule. Qualcomm explicitly positioned Alphawave as a strategic accelerator for its data center expansion, highlighting Alphawave’s high-speed wired connectivity as complementary to Qualcomm’s Oryon CPU and Hexagon NPU roadmap. Qualcomm also announced that Tony Pialis (Alphawave Semi CEO/co-founder) will lead Qualcomm’s data center business. [4]
Why this matters for QCOM stock:
- Data centers are not just a “future idea” for Qualcomm anymore; they are being staffed, integrated, and operationalized with a named leader and newly acquired IP.
- In AI infrastructure, performance isn’t only about compute—it’s about moving data fast and efficiently. Connectivity IP can be a differentiator in a world shifting toward chiplets, advanced packaging, and rack-scale design.
The bigger AI infrastructure arc: AI200 and AI250
This acquisition lands against the backdrop of Qualcomm’s recently announced AI200 and AI250 data center chips and rack-scale systems. Qualcomm said the chips target AI inference, with commercial timing in 2026 (AI200) and 2027 (AI250), and named Humain (Saudi AI startup backed by the sovereign wealth fund) as an early customer planning significant deployment starting in 2026. [5]
For equity investors, that sets up a familiar “show me” path: product timelines and early customer commitments are important—but markets will likely demand evidence of repeatable demand beyond a flagship partner.
The most important fundamentals: what Qualcomm just reported, and what it guided next
Qualcomm’s most recent results (fiscal Q4 2025) were strong on the operating line, even as headline GAAP figures were distorted by a tax-related item.
Fiscal Q4 2025: revenue up, mix improving, diversification still building
From Qualcomm’s fiscal Q4 2025 earnings release:
- Q4 revenue:$11.27B (up 10% year over year)
- Non-GAAP EPS:$3.00
- GAAP EPS:($2.89), impacted by a major non-cash tax charge
- Segment performance (Q4):
- QCT revenue:$9.821B
- Handsets:$6.961B
- Automotive:$1.053B (notably above $1B)
- IoT:$1.807B
- QTL revenue:$1.409B [6]
- QCT revenue:$9.821B
Qualcomm also emphasized capital return:
- Q4 stock repurchases: 16M shares for $2.443B
- Q4 dividends paid:$957M [7]
The tax charge investors still need to understand (without overreacting)
Qualcomm disclosed that new U.S. tax legislation triggered a non-cash $5.7B charge (about $5.29 per share) in fiscal Q4 2025 to establish a valuation allowance against certain deferred tax assets, as it expects to be subject to the U.S. corporate alternative minimum tax beginning in fiscal 2026. Qualcomm also said it expects its effective tax rate to generally remain in the 13%–14% range and anticipates lower cash tax payments in future periods. [8]
Guidance: what Qualcomm expects for Q1 FY26
Qualcomm’s official outlook for Q1 FY26:
- Revenue:$11.8B to $12.6B
- QCT revenue:$10.3B to $10.9B
- QTL revenue:$1.4B to $1.6B
- Non-GAAP diluted EPS:$3.30 to $3.50
- GAAP diluted EPS:$2.55 to $2.75 [9]
This guidance matters before the Dec. 22 open because it remains the market’s anchor for near-term expectations—especially for investors trying to judge whether QCOM’s recent move is supported by fundamentals or is mostly multiple expansion.
Analyst forecasts and consensus: what Wall Street expects now
Consensus positioning remains broadly constructive, with price targets clustered above the current share price—though not uniformly bullish.
- Investing.com’s compilation shows a “Buy” consensus rating, with an average 12‑month price target around 192.4, and estimates ranging from 157 (low) to 225 (high). [10]
- Another widely followed aggregation (StockAnalysis) shows analyst consensus “Buy” with an average target around $187.38. [11]
How to read this before the open:
Targets imply upside, but not a “no-brainer” gap. The market appears to be pricing Qualcomm as a company with a credible AI and diversification story—while still assigning meaningful probability to handset and customer concentration risks.
The handset reality check: smartphone market forecasts could tighten the volume environment
Qualcomm remains deeply tied to the smartphone ecosystem—even if the long-term strategy is broader. That makes macro handset forecasts relevant again.
A key datapoint that investors are weighing into 2026: Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to decline 2.1% in 2026, attributing pressure to rising chip costs and supply-chain effects connected to memory constraints. The same report highlighted that the sub-$200 segment could see bill-of-materials costs up 20%–30%, with Apple and Samsung positioned to weather the pressure better than low-end focused brands. [12]
Implication for Qualcomm stock:
Even if Qualcomm is stronger in premium tiers than entry-level, broad market contraction can still affect:
- unit volumes,
- OEM promotional intensity,
- and bargaining dynamics in mid-tier devices.
The biggest company-specific risks investors still debate
1) Apple modem transition remains the overhang
The Apple risk hasn’t vanished—it has simply moved from “theory” into “phased execution.” Apple publicly introduced its first in-house modem, reinforcing the idea that Qualcomm’s Apple modem share could decline over time. Qualcomm has also discussed expectations that its modem share at Apple could drop materially (with agreements still covering a transition period). [13]
Before the Dec. 22 open, the practical question isn’t “Will Apple ever reduce Qualcomm?”—it’s how quickly, and whether Qualcomm’s growth in Android premium tiers, automotive, IoT, and data center can offset the slope of that change.
2) Regulatory and geopolitical sensitivity: China is still central
China-related risk is not abstract for Qualcomm. In October, Reuters reported that China opened an antitrust investigation tied to Qualcomm’s Autotalks acquisition, focused on whether certain details were properly declared under China’s antitrust law. Reuters also noted that Qualcomm derived 46% of fiscal 2024 revenue from customers headquartered in China, highlighting the sensitivity investors place on regulatory actions in the region. [14]
3) Legal/competitive friction: Arm dispute continues via appeal
Qualcomm has been navigating licensing and IP disputes with Arm. Reuters reported Arm planned to appeal the court decision in its case against Qualcomm. [15]
Markets typically don’t reprice this daily, but the risk can resurface suddenly if:
- an appellate development shifts perceived outcomes, or
- commercial negotiations between ecosystem players harden.
Bull case vs. bear case: the simplest way to frame QCOM before the bell
The bull case (why investors stay constructive)
- Official Q1 FY26 guidance is solid, with revenue and non-GAAP EPS ranges that suggest continued momentum. [16]
- Automotive is scaling: Q4 automotive revenue reached $1.053B, supporting the view that Qualcomm’s “diversification” isn’t just messaging. [17]
- Data center AI is moving from concept to execution, with AI chips announced and a major connectivity acquisition completed ahead of schedule. [18]
- Capital returns remain significant (buybacks + dividends), which can support downside resilience when growth narratives wobble. [19]
The bear case (what could surprise investors negatively)
- Smartphone units could face another down-cycle in 2026, pressuring the broader ecosystem even if Qualcomm is more premium-weighted. [20]
- Apple modem share loss is still a multi-year headline risk that can cap valuation expansion when sentiment turns. [21]
- China regulatory actions could widen beyond a single deal review, and Qualcomm’s customer exposure in China is substantial. [22]
- Legal uncertainty (including appeals) can quickly change investor confidence if an outcome looks less favorable than expected. [23]
What to watch specifically on Dec. 22, 2025 (and this holiday-shortened week)
With the next scheduled earnings still weeks away (Feb. 4, 2026), QCOM trading into the Dec. 22 open is likely to be driven by:
- Follow-through (or fade) from the Alphawave Semi acquisition closing
Investors will watch whether analysts treat this as a near-term earnings enhancer, or primarily a strategic “2026–2028” move. [24] - Sector tape and handset headlines
Any incremental reports about memory pricing, handset builds, or OEM demand can sway Qualcomm due to its handset footprint. [25] - Positioning into year-end
Late December often brings thinner liquidity and rebalancing flows, which can exaggerate moves in large-cap tech. - Any regulatory updates tied to China or licensing disputes
Even a small headline can move the stock when investors are already primed for geopolitical sensitivity. [26]
Bottom line: Qualcomm stock into the Dec. 22 open
Ahead of the Dec. 22, 2025 opening bell, Qualcomm stock sits at a crossroads that is familiar—but also newly credible:
- The core business is still generating meaningful cash and supporting dividends and buybacks. [27]
- The near-term earnings outlook (Q1 FY26) remains constructive by the company’s own guidance. [28]
- The long-term narrative increasingly hinges on whether data center AI and high-speed connectivity investments (including Alphawave Semi) translate into repeatable revenue streams—not just announcements. [29]
- Meanwhile, the market continues to weigh smartphone-cycle risk, Apple modem transition, and China-related uncertainty as the main valuation “caps.” [30]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. investor.qualcomm.com, 4. investor.qualcomm.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. s204.q4cdn.com, 7. s204.q4cdn.com, 8. s204.q4cdn.com, 9. s204.q4cdn.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. s204.q4cdn.com, 17. s204.q4cdn.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. s204.q4cdn.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investor.qualcomm.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. s204.q4cdn.com, 28. s204.q4cdn.com, 29. investor.qualcomm.com, 30. www.reuters.com
