Timing note: This briefing is written for the next U.S. stock-market session that begins Monday, December 22, 2025 (9:30 a.m. ET). If you’re reading later in the day, treat it as a “what matters next” guide for the following session.
Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) heads into the open after a strong finish to last week, with the stock closing $101.29 on the latest session shown in market data, after a sizable one-day move and heavy trading volume. 1
Below is what investors and traders typically focus on right before the bell: the headline drivers, the company’s most recent guidance and balance-sheet updates, where analysts see the stock going, and the technical/positioning signals that can amplify moves—especially in a holiday-shortened week.
Newmont stock snapshot heading into the open
Latest close:$101.29 (recent close)
Near-term context: Newmont ended the week just under a recent 52-week high near $102.13 and saw trading volume spike well above its recent average, signaling elevated attention into the new week. 1
Why that matters: When a mega-cap miner pushes into fresh highs, price action can become more sensitive to:
- precious-metals moves (gold/silver),
- rates and the U.S. dollar,
- and any incremental company catalysts (portfolio actions, guidance reiterations, leadership updates).
The big macro driver right now: gold and silver momentum
Gold and silver have been hitting record levels in recent sessions, which has helped fuel broad strength across precious-metals miners. Market commentary late Sunday highlighted new record highs in gold and silver futures, with investors linking the move to expectations around future Fed rate cuts. 2
For a longer-dated “macro roadmap,” Goldman Sachs recently projected gold could reach $4,900/oz by December 2026 (with central bank demand and potential Fed cuts cited as key supports). 3
Why this is important for Newmont:
Newmont’s earnings and free cash flow can be highly leveraged to realized gold prices. In Newmont’s Q3 2025 disclosures, the company reported a sharply higher realized gold price trend through 2025 compared with 2024. 4
Fresh company news to know: Newmont’s Fuerte Metals share sale
One of the most recent Newmont-specific headlines is a secondary transaction involving Fuerte Metals.
Newmont (through a subsidiary) disclosed agreements to sell 6,773,641 common shares of Fuerte at CAD $4.35 per share, for gross proceeds of about CAD $29.5 million, and said the transaction was expected to close within about a week (subject to customary conditions). 5
The company also said its beneficial ownership in Fuerte would drop from roughly 24% to about 19.5% after the sale, while indicating it intended to retain the remaining stake at around the post-transaction level (while reserving flexibility to adjust holdings in the future). 5
How to think about it before the open:
- This isn’t a “core mine” headline, but it fits Newmont’s broader pattern of portfolio simplification and capital discipline.
- It’s also a reminder that Newmont continues to actively manage equity holdings alongside operational assets.
The fundamentals: what Newmont last told investors about performance, cash flow, and capital returns
Q3 2025 performance highlights
In its third-quarter 2025 release, Newmont reported:
- Net income of $1.8 billion and adjusted net income of $1.9 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion
- 1.4 million gold ounces produced (plus copper production from core managed operations) 6
Just as importantly for stockholders, Newmont highlighted record free cash flow and significant capital returns, alongside continued balance-sheet strengthening. 6
Balance sheet and liquidity
Newmont said it reduced debt by $2.0 billion (including via a debt tender offer), ended the quarter with $5.6 billion of cash, and reported $9.6 billion of total liquidity, describing a near-zero net debt position. 4
Separately, Newmont announced earlier in 2025 that Moody’s upgraded its issuer credit rating to A3 (stable outlook), pointing to a strengthened balance sheet and liquidity profile. 7
Dividend: payment day lands on Dec 22
Newmont’s board declared a $0.25 per share dividend for Q3 2025, payable December 22, 2025, to holders of record as of November 26, 2025. 4
Trading takeaway: the ex-dividend date is what typically drives the mechanical price adjustment—while the pay date is still relevant for cash flow and shareholder-return narratives.
Buybacks: still a key part of the story
Newmont reported it had executed and settled $3.3 billion of share repurchases, with $2.7 billion remaining under previously authorized programs (as of its Q3 filing period). 4
Guidance and near-term operating setup: production and costs into year-end
From Newmont’s own “Fourth Quarter and 2025 Guidance” section (as of Oct. 23, 2025), key figures investors often reference include:
- 2025 attributable gold production (Core Portfolio): 5.6 Moz
- 2025 total attributable gold production (including non-core): 5.9 Moz
- Gold co-product AISC (all-in sustaining costs): $1,630/oz for 2025
- Q4 2025 Gold co-product AISC: $1,670/oz 6
Newmont also said it made “significant progress” on cost savings initiatives, improving guidance for some cost metrics and shifting some capital timing, while noting that a stronger gold-price environment can come with offsets like higher royalties and profit-sharing costs. 6
What to watch before the open: any fresh commentary about realized prices, costs, or operational ramp-ups can matter more when the stock is near highs.
New capacity coming online: Ahafo North commercial production
Newmont announced commercial production at Ahafo North in Ghana, calling it a meaningful milestone.
The company said Ahafo North was expected to produce about 50,000 ounces of gold in 2025, ramping through 2026, and positioned the asset to deliver ~275,000 to 325,000 ounces annually over a 13-year mine life (over the next five years in the company’s framing). 8
For investors, this is important because it connects directly to the “volume side” of the margin equation—not just price.
Leadership transition: a major “soft catalyst” into 2026
Newmont has a high-profile leadership shift approaching:
- CEO Tom Palmer is set to step down on December 31, 2025.
- Natascha Viljoen will become President and CEO on January 1, 2026, and will join the board.
- Palmer is expected to serve as a strategic advisor until March 31, 2026. 9
Reuters also highlighted the transition in the broader context of leadership changes among major gold producers. 10
Why it matters for the stock: leadership transitions can be catalysts for:
- sharper portfolio actions (more divestitures, more reinvestment, or tighter capital returns),
- operational execution priorities,
- and messaging around what “Tier 1” focus means in practice.
Wall Street forecasts: revenue, production, and what consensus expects next
A high-signal datapoint comes from Visible Alpha consensus as summarized by S&P Global Market Intelligence:
- 2025 revenue expected around $21.8 billion (+17% YoY in that consensus view)
- gold sales forecast $18.8 billion
- average realized gold price forecast about $3,432/oz
- but gold output forecast to decline ~16% to 5.86 Moz, reflecting portfolio reshaping and volume trade-offs 11
That “higher prices vs. lower volumes” mix is a central tension for miners in a restructuring phase—and it’s one reason the market can swing between “cash-flow story” and “production story” depending on where metals prices go next.
Analyst price targets and recent upgrades: what’s changed in December
Analyst sentiment has been leaning constructive in recent weeks as metals prices surged:
- A Nasdaq.com analysis cited a $120 target from Jefferies’ Fahad Tariq and an increase at UBS (Daniel Major) from $105.50 to $125 earlier in December. 12
- MarketBeat also reported a target increase to $120 at National Bankshares, while noting a “Buy”-leaning consensus across a broader analyst set. 13
How to use this before the open:
- When the stock is already trading around $101 and brushing new highs, the “easy” upside from multiple expansion may be smaller.
- But target hikes often reinforce the idea that analysts expect higher margins and cash flows if gold stays elevated. 12
Technical setup: momentum is strong, but watch the “crowded trade” risk
Several technical aggregators currently flag bullish signals:
- Investing.com’s daily technical read showed “Strong Buy” positioning with a 14-day RSI around 61 (often interpreted as bullish momentum that is not yet extreme). 14
- TipRanks’ technical snapshot showed RSI in the mid-60s and highlighted that the stock price was above multiple moving averages (short and long duration), which many trend-followers read as supportive. 15
Separately, market commentary noted Newmont pushing through key resistance/buy points as metals rallied, reinforcing the “momentum trade” narrative around gold miners. 16
Practical levels traders often watch into the bell:
- $100 as a psychological pivot (round-number behavior can matter near highs).
- The high-$90s zone (often referenced as prior breakout territory in momentum commentary).
- The recent high area just above $102 (a break above can trigger trend-following flows; failure can trigger profit-taking). 1
Positioning check: short interest and options-implied volatility
Short interest (not extreme): Market data aggregated by MarketBeat showed short interest around 22.29 million shares, about 2.04% of float, with roughly 2.4 days to cover (as of the late-November reporting date). 17
Options market (volatility elevated but not panic-level): OptionCharts data pegged implied volatility around 41.53% with an IV rank around the low-40s (as of Dec. 19). 18
Why these matter before the open: if gold/silver gap higher (or lower) overnight, a moderate IV backdrop can still translate into sharp stock moves—especially when liquidity thins around holidays.
Calendar and market structure: holiday-week conditions can exaggerate moves
This is a holiday-shortened week in U.S. equities:
- The NYSE schedule notes an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, and markets are closed on Thursday, Dec. 25. 19
Why this matters for NEM:
In thin, pre-holiday markets, macro-driven names (like gold miners) can see “bigger-than-usual” swings if metals prices move quickly.
What to watch before the bell: a quick checklist for Newmont stock
- Gold and silver futures direction
If the record-setting momentum continues, miners can “catch up” fast at the open. 2 - Any update on the Fuerte transaction closing
Newmont said the sale was expected to close within about a week from the Dec. 18 disclosure—timing that overlaps with the holiday period. 5 - Leadership-transition headlines
With a CEO change set for Jan. 1, even small commentary can get amplified. 9 - Follow-through above recent highs or a fade back below $100
Near-high setups can be “two-way”: either breakout continuation or profit-taking. - Any signs of “risk-off” in broader equities
Gold miners can sometimes benefit from risk-off (safe-haven bid), but they can also get hit by broad de-risking if liquidity dries up.
Bottom line for Dec. 22: the bull case and the bear case
Bull case into the open
- Gold/silver strength remains the dominant tailwind. 2
- Newmont’s own guidance and Q3 results emphasize strong cash generation, buybacks, and a fortified balance sheet. 6
- Analyst targets have been moving higher into December. 12
Bear case into the open
- After a massive 2025 run, the stock is vulnerable to profit-taking—especially if gold pulls back even modestly.
- Higher gold prices can increase royalties and profit-sharing costs, which Newmont itself flagged as an offset to some cost improvements. 6
- Forecasts that include production declines (even alongside revenue growth) can become a focal point if the market narrative shifts from “price leverage” to “volume durability.” 11
