December 22, 2025 — NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is starting the holiday-shortened week in focus after a cluster of headline catalysts collided: a Reuters report that Nvidia is preparing to restart H200 AI chip shipments to China as early as mid‑February 2026, a broader rebound in AI-linked semiconductors, and a steady drumbeat of new Wall Street takes on valuation, demand durability, and regulatory risk. [1]
In early premarket trading Monday, NVDA was up about 1.8% around $184.20, according to a Reuters/Refinitiv market note carried by TradingView. [2]
What’s different about this rally attempt is the mix of policy, geopolitics, and execution risk that sits right under the surface: the U.S. is reviewing license approvals tied to China-bound H200 sales, Beijing has not yet approved purchases, and lawmakers in Washington are actively pushing legislation aimed at preventing any easing of AI-chip export curbs. [3]
Why Nvidia stock is moving on December 22, 2025
The immediate spark is simple: potentially reopened China demand for a high-end Nvidia AI accelerator, even if it’s not the newest generation.
Reuters reported that Nvidia told Chinese clients it aims to begin shipping H200 chips before the Lunar New Year holiday in mid‑February 2026, with initial deliveries expected to total 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules—equivalent to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips—from existing stock. Reuters added that Nvidia has discussed adding new production capacity, with orders for that capacity opening in Q2 2026, while emphasizing that timing remains uncertain because Beijing has not yet approved any H200 purchases. [4]
At the same time, NVDA is benefiting from a broader AI/semiconductor rebound: Reuters noted U.S. stock futures were higher into the holiday-shortened week, with Nvidia and other chipmakers up more than 2% in premarket trading as optimism around AI re-accelerated after Micron’s upbeat forecast and softer inflation data. [5]
The big story: H200 shipments to China could restart, but approval risk is still the headline
What Nvidia is reportedly planning
According to Reuters, Nvidia’s plan is to start H200 shipments to China by mid‑February 2026, targeting deliveries ahead of the Lunar New Year—an important timing detail for enterprise procurement cycles and data center build schedules. The initial wave is expected to come from existing inventory, with a possible capacity expansion discussed for later in 2026. [6]
Why the H200 matters (even with Blackwell and Rubin in the pipeline)
Reuters described the H200 as part of Nvidia’s Hopper line—still widely used for AI workloads even as Nvidia prioritizes newer Blackwell chips and its upcoming Rubin platform. In other words: it may not be the “shiny newest,” but it remains a meaningful product where incremental supply access can translate into incremental revenue—especially if buyers are supply-constrained or export-constrained. [7]
Policy shift: the U.S. review, Trump’s fee, and the political backlash
Reuters previously reported the Trump administration launched an inter-agency review that could allow the first China shipments of H200 chips—moving license applications through Commerce and onward to other agencies for review, with the final decision resting with the president. Reuters also reported President Donald Trump said he would allow H200 chip sales to China while collecting a 25% fee on such sales. [8]
That policy shift has not been quiet. Reuters reported lawmakers introduced the SAFE CHIPS Act, which would force Commerce to deny certain advanced AI-chip export licenses to buyers in China (and other countries) for 30 months, representing a rare push—partly from within Trump’s own party—to stop further loosening of restrictions. [9]
Beijing’s side of the equation: purchases are not approved (yet)
Reuters underscored the key gating factor: China has yet to approve purchases, and the timeline could shift based on government decisions. Reuters also reported earlier this month that Chinese officials weighed whether to allow shipments and considered a proposal that would require each H200 purchase to be bundled with a ratio of domestic chips—illustrating that even if the U.S. greenlights exports, China may manage or ration access. [10]
Separately, Reuters reported that Beijing was set to limit access to H200 chips even after U.S. export approval, citing a Financial Times report—another reminder that this is not just a Washington decision. [11]
Today’s NVDA headlines investors are tracking
Here’s the key news-flow shaping Nvidia stock into December 22:
- Nvidia aims to ship H200 chips to China by mid‑February 2026, starting with 5,000–10,000 modules from stock; Beijing approval remains pending. [12]
- U.S. inter-agency review could pave the way for H200 export licenses; Trump ties approval to a 25% fee and faces national-security backlash. [13]
- U.S. senators introduce the SAFE CHIPS Act to block easing of advanced AI-chip export curbs for 30 months. [14]
- FTC/antitrust clearance of Nvidia’s planned $5B Intel investment removes a regulatory overhang tied to that transaction. [15]
- Nvidia acquired SchedMD, the company behind the widely used Slurm scheduling software, expanding Nvidia’s open-source ecosystem push in data centers. [16]
- Nvidia launched the Nemotron 3 family of open models (Nano, Super, Ultra) aimed at “agentic AI,” positioning software and models as part of the moat alongside GPUs. [17]
- A Reuters filing-based report said longtime Nvidia director Harvey Jones sold about $44 million in shares (250,000 shares sold at an average $177.33), while still retaining a large stake through a trust. [18]
- Broader market context: Reuters reported AI optimism helped lift tech into a holiday-shortened trading week (including early close Wednesday and markets shut Thursday for Christmas). [19]
- Bearish counterpoint: Michael Burry argued the U.S. could be disadvantaged in the AI race if it relies on power-hungry Nvidia GPUs, suggesting ASICs and power constraints matter more over time. [20]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets rising, “cheap” valuation calls — and the debate over competition
Analyst commentary around Nvidia has split into two camps: those arguing the stock has become relatively inexpensive given growth and visibility, and those warning that the AI trade is still exposed to valuation resets, competition, and policy shocks.
The bullish side: “cheap” relative to growth, targets pushed higher
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Truist analyst William Stein raised his price target on Nvidia from $255 to $275 while maintaining a buy rating, and that Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon also kept an “outperform” stance with a $275 target—framing Nvidia as historically cheap relative to the semiconductor index on certain valuation measures. [21]
TipRanks also reported additional bullish revisions, including Tigress Financial raising its target to $350 while keeping a buy rating. [22]
In the Reuters/Refinitiv market note cited by TradingView, analysts’ median price target was cited at $250, with an average recommendation of “buy.” [23]
The trading/volatility view: options strategies and “event risk” framing
Barron’s reported J.P. Morgan viewed Nvidia’s pullback earlier this month as a trading opportunity and highlighted an options strategy (selling March 2026 puts at a $160 strike, with an $8.50 premium per share), while maintaining an “Overweight” view and a $250 target price. [24]
Separately, Reuters has emphasized how large Nvidia’s post-earnings swings can be: in November, Reuters reported options markets implied roughly a 7% move around earnings and framed Nvidia results as a defining signal for the broader AI capex trade. [25]
The caution case: competition, export rules, and the “AI bubble” narrative
Even as analyst targets drift higher, the caution narrative persists. Reuters noted tech had come under pressure earlier this month on concerns about inflated valuations and AI spending, before the recent rebound. [26]
Barron’s also tied a recent Nvidia dip to concerns about competition—specifically mentioning worries around Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) as investors re-litigate how much AI infrastructure will shift toward custom silicon over time. [27]
And outside traditional sell-side research, high-profile skeptics like Burry continue to focus on power constraints and the possibility that the most efficient AI compute may not always come from general-purpose GPUs. [28]
Nvidia’s own outlook: the numbers underpinning the bull case
A major reason Nvidia stock still commands attention is that recent results and guidance have remained enormous in scale.
In its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release (reported Nov. 19, 2025), Nvidia posted:
- Revenue of $57.0 billion (record), with Data Center revenue of $51.2 billion (record). [29]
- Gross margins in the 73% range and GAAP EPS of $1.30. [30]
- A fiscal Q4 2026 revenue outlook of $65.0 billion ±2%, alongside margin and expense guidance. [31]
Nvidia also highlighted shareholder returns and capital deployment: it returned $37.0 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 and had $62.2 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization at quarter-end. [32]
And for income-focused investors (even if Nvidia’s dividend is small), the company said it would pay its next quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per share on December 26, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 4. [33]
The strategic angle: Nvidia is defending the ecosystem, not just the GPU
If 2023–2024 was about proving GPUs were the core AI training engine, late 2025 has increasingly looked like a fight over platform control: tooling, orchestration, models, and developer workflow.
That’s why Nvidia’s open-source and software moves have mattered to the stock narrative:
- Reuters reported Nvidia acquired SchedMD, the firm behind Slurm, positioning scheduling/orchestration as critical infrastructure for training and inference in modern AI data centers—and emphasizing Nvidia would keep the software open-source. [34]
- Nvidia’s newsroom announcement positioned Nemotron 3 as a family of open models and tools for multi-agent AI, trying to pair Nvidia hardware with Nvidia-native model and agent workflows. [35]
For investors, these moves help answer a key long-term question: What happens if custom silicon grows? Nvidia’s response is to deepen switching costs through an end-to-end stack.
Key risks for NVDA stock as 2025 turns into 2026
Even with strong demand signals and bullish targets, Nvidia’s risk profile remains unusual because the biggest swing factors are only partially financial:
- Export controls and approvals (U.S. and China)
The H200 story is explicitly contingent on approvals—Washington’s review process and Beijing’s purchase decisions. [36] - Political pushback could change the rules again
Proposed U.S. legislation (SAFE CHIPS Act) is a clear sign that future export policy could tighten quickly, even after a loosening attempt. [37] - Competition and the “custom silicon” debate
Concerns about hyperscalers building in-house accelerators (TPUs/ASICs) remain part of the valuation conversation. [38] - Market psychology and volatility around earnings
Reuters’ options analysis underscores how the stock can reprice sharply around earnings, even when the long-term story remains intact. [39] - Insider selling headlines can spook sentiment (even when benign)
Reuters reported a notable director sale in mid-December; these events often generate noise regardless of the seller’s remaining ownership. [40]
What to watch next: dates, events, and the next “checkpoint” for Nvidia stock
Holiday-week trading conditions
Reuters flagged that volumes are expected to be light, with U.S. markets closing early Wednesday and shutting Thursday for Christmas—conditions that can amplify moves (up or down) on headlines. [41]
Nvidia’s next earnings date
Wall Street Horizon lists Nvidia’s next earnings date as Wednesday, February 25, 2026 (after market) and marks it as “confirmed.” [42]
Dividend date
Nvidia’s latest declared dividend is scheduled for December 26, 2025, per the company’s Q3 release. [43]
The China/H200 timeline
If the current plan holds, the next major “tell” will be whether approvals materialize in time for the mid‑February shipment target—and whether any U.S. legislative or agency action alters the path. [44]
Bottom line for NVDA on December 22, 2025
Nvidia stock is rallying into the week on a clear catalyst: signs that H200 shipments to China could resume in early 2026, reinforcing the view that demand remains strong even for Nvidia’s prior-generation flagship AI silicon. [45]
But unlike a typical “beat and raise” story, NVDA’s next leg is increasingly gated by decisions that have little to do with unit demand: export reviews, political resistance, and Beijing’s own purchasing approvals—on top of the ever-present debate about power constraints and custom silicon. That’s why the stock can look simultaneously “cheap” to some analysts and still carry meaningful headline risk. [46]
References
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