Updated: Dec. 22, 2025 — 10:22 a.m. ET (15:22 UTC)
U.S. equities are starting the holiday-shortened week with a familiar engine: artificial intelligence. By mid-morning Monday, AI chip stocks and the broader tech complex were extending a rebound that picked up late last week, as investors balanced fresh catalysts (notably in semiconductors and cloud) against lingering concerns about valuations, export controls, and the “who actually earns the ROI?” question that keeps resurfacing whenever capex numbers climb. [1]
At the center of today’s tape is a single theme that keeps proving it can move multiple sectors at once: the AI supply chain is still tightening in unexpected places—while geopolitics is re-entering the AI chip story in a big way.
AI stocks market snapshot at mid‑morning
As of the latest available trades around ~10:10 a.m. ET, AI-linked ETFs and several bellwether AI stocks were modestly higher, led by semiconductors:
- Semiconductors (ETF proxies): iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX up about 1.56%, and VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH up about 1.0%.
- Broad market / tech:SPY up about 0.43%; QQQ up about 0.42%.
AI bellwethers and supply-chain winners:
- Nvidia (NVDA): ~$183.47, up about 1.37%.
- Micron (MU): ~$271.73, up about 2.18%.
- AMD (AMD): ~$214.11, up about 0.32%.
- Broadcom (AVGO): ~$340.91, up about 0.16%.
- TSMC (TSM): ~$293.29, up about 1.50%.
- Applied Materials (AMAT): ~$259.03, up about 1.02%; Lam Research (LRCX) ~$173.59, up about 0.77%.
- Microsoft (MSFT): ~$484.30, down about 0.33% (still very much in the AI narrative today thanks to fresh Street commentary).
- Alphabet (GOOGL): ~$306.98, roughly flat to slightly lower in mid-morning trading (while new analyst notes keep the AI thesis in focus).
Markets are also facing holiday dynamics: U.S. trading volume is expected to be lighter this week, with an early close Wednesday and markets shut Thursday for Christmas. [2]
1) Nvidia stock in focus: China shipments headline returns (and it’s not just about revenue)
The biggest AI-stock headline of Dec. 22 is Nvidia’s plan to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid‑February 2026, according to sources cited by Reuters. Nvidia is said to be looking to fulfill initial demand from existing stock, with total shipments initially in the range of 5,000 to 10,000 “chip modules,” equivalent to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips. [3]
But the market is reacting to more than a shipment plan:
- Beijing approval is still pending, and Reuters notes the timetable could shift depending on Chinese government decisions. [4]
- The move follows a major U.S. policy shift: Reuters reports President Donald Trump said earlier this month the U.S. would allow such sales with a 25% fee, reversing a prior approach that had restricted advanced AI chips to China on national-security grounds. [5]
- Nvidia has also indicated plans to add production capacity for these chips, with orders for that capacity opening in Q2 2026, per Reuters’ sourcing. [6]
Why this matters for AI investors
This headline pulls three powerful “AI stock drivers” into a single story:
- Demand certainty (or at least demand visibility): China remains a major AI compute buyer. Even with Nvidia’s newer Blackwell and upcoming Rubin lines drawing attention, Reuters notes the H200 is still widely used in AI—so shipments would represent real volume, not just narrative. [7]
- Policy premium: The AI chip trade is increasingly priced not only on product cycles—but on export rules, licensing timelines, and tariffs/fees. Reuters also reported the Trump administration launched an interagency review of license applications tied to H200 sales, highlighting the procedural uncertainty. [8]
- Competitive knock‑ons: Reuters notes the H200 is far more powerful than Nvidia’s China‑tailored H20 variant, and Chinese tech giants would see a major performance upgrade if H200 imports are approved. [9]
AMD gets pulled into the same trade
In the same ecosystem story, investors are watching AMD’s China strategy closely. Reuters previously reported AMD’s MI308 accelerator was designed to comply with U.S. export controls, and the chip has been explicitly caught up in changing export policy over time. [10]
The practical takeaway: “China optionality” is back on the scoreboard for AI chip stocks—and it’s likely to keep volatility elevated as each new policy update hits.
2) Micron and the memory bottleneck: AI demand is spilling into everyday hardware (and stock prices)
If Nvidia is the headline, memory is the plot twist.
A Reuters report published today underscores how the AI infrastructure buildout is driving DRAM demand so aggressively that consumer categories are feeling real pressure—most notably videogame consoles and PCs. The report describes a situation where memory makers are prioritizing higher-margin data-center demand, tightening supply elsewhere. [11]
Key details that matter for AI stock investors:
- AI infrastructure buildouts are pushing demand for DRAM beyond supply, contributing to higher memory prices. [12]
- Reuters notes Counterpoint Research estimated memory prices could rise 30% in the last three months of 2025 and potentially another 20% early next year, on top of significant increases already seen this year. [13]
- An NYU Stern professor cited by Reuters suggested console sticker prices could rise 10%–15% and PC prices could climb as much as 30% as memory prices rise again in 2026. [14]
- Forecasts for the console market have already been revised down, per Reuters, as higher component costs collide with demand sensitivity. [15]
Why Micron stock keeps getting pulled higher
Micron has become a key “picks-and-shovels” beneficiary of AI because modern AI systems lean heavily on specialized memory. Reuters reported last week that Micron shares surged after a strong profit forecast, citing a worldwide supply crunch of memory chips amid robust demand from AI data centers. [16]
Today’s takeaway for the broader AI trade is bigger than one company’s earnings cycle:
AI is now tight enough in the supply chain that it is influencing pricing power across memory—and that, in turn, can reshape margins across consumer electronics, PCs, and gaming.
For AI investors, this is one of the most important “second-order” signals to watch going into 2026.
3) Broadcom and Oracle: the market’s big AI question—“Where are the margins?”
The AI rally isn’t only about demand. It’s also about profitability—and in December, the market has shown it will punish AI stories that look capex-heavy or margin-light.
Broadcom: strong AI demand, but margin pressure spooked investors
Reuters reported that Broadcom forecast upbeat quarterly revenue on strong AI demand, but investors focused on the risk that growing sales of lower-margin custom AI processors could pressure profitability. [17]
A notable datapoint from Reuters: Broadcom disclosed a $73 billion backlog it anticipated shipping over the next 18 months, while also flagging potential margin dips. [18]
The implication for AI stocks today: Wall Street is no longer satisfied with “AI exposure.” It wants evidence that the exposure is high-quality—meaning durable and profitable.
Oracle: AI infrastructure spending is rising faster than Wall Street expected
Oracle has been another focal point for “AI ROI anxiety.” Reuters reported Oracle forecast sales and profit below expectations while stating spending would rise by $15 billion compared with earlier estimates—signaling that the enormous buildout to chase AI cloud customers is not translating to profits as quickly as markets hoped. [19]
Reuters also highlighted how Oracle is competing with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google for AI cloud demand—and that Oracle and other cloud players are expected to spend more than $400 billion on AI infrastructure this year. [20]
In short: capex is still the fuel of the AI boom—yet it is also the biggest source of skepticism.
4) Microsoft, Alphabet, and the AI “platform premium”
While chips tend to lead the daily tape, the next leg of the AI-stock story increasingly depends on who can convert AI into recurring enterprise revenue.
Microsoft stock: fresh 2026 upside call
A Barron’s report today highlighted Wedbush’s Dan Ives reiterating an upbeat outlook for Microsoft, including a $625 price target and framing Microsoft as a front-runner in enterprise AI. The note argues investor concern has centered on capex for data centers—but that these investments could pay off as AI demand grows. [21]
Whether or not investors agree with the target, this is the type of commentary that matters in the Google News/Discover environment: it signals that the Microsoft AI story is now being debated primarily on monetization and capacity economics, not “does AI matter?”
Alphabet stock: price target raised on “AI tools + cloud” thesis
Another Dec. 22 analyst catalyst came via TheFly/TipRanks: Citi reportedly raised Alphabet’s price target to $350 (from $343) while maintaining a Buy rating, citing “industry leading” AI tools as a driver of search revenue growth and accelerating cloud sales. [22]
On the fundamentals side, Reuters has also described how AI is changing Google Cloud’s role inside Alphabet and how capex has been increasing as Google invests to meet AI demand—another reminder that even “platform” winners still face the capex-versus-returns debate. [23]
Google Cloud + Palo Alto Networks: AI meets cybersecurity spend
One of the most concrete “AI monetization” datapoints this month came from Reuters: Google Cloud and Palo Alto Networks expanded their partnership in a deal one source said was approaching $10 billion over several years, with a significant portion tied to new AI-driven security services. [24]
This matters for AI stock investors because it reinforces a key 2026 narrative:
Security is emerging as a “must-spend” category in the AI era—not a “nice-to-have.”
5) The underappreciated AI constraint: power and physical infrastructure
In 2025, the market learned that AI isn’t only a software story or a chip story. It’s also a grid and power story—and that theme remains a major swing factor for AI-related equities.
Reuters reported earlier this month that power supplies from utilities to U.S. data centers are expected to jump 22% this year to 61.8 gigawatts, reaching 134.4 gigawatts by 2030, citing an S&P Global outlook. [25]
And the reliability angle is becoming more prominent: Reuters previously reported that rising power demand driven by data centers is shrinking electricity supplies and increasing the risk of shortages during extreme winter weather, according to North American grid reliability assessments. [26]
What this means for AI stocks “today”
This power constraint can influence the AI trade in at least three ways:
- Capex duration: If data center and grid buildouts become a multi-year sprint, “AI capex” may last longer than many investors originally modeled.
- Winners broaden out: AI exposure can extend to infrastructure and power-adjacent names—an argument Reuters’ BlackRock column effectively makes by pointing out investors can gain AI exposure through discounted clean energy and grid infrastructure plays, not only high-multiple tech. [27]
- Risk premium rises: If power becomes a binding constraint, the market may apply a higher discount rate to companies that need massive incremental compute to hit growth targets.
6) 2026 forecasts that are shaping “AI stocks today”
Today’s AI-stock moves are also being amplified by how bullish (and how specific) 2026 forecasts have become.
A few numbers investors are repeatedly citing:
- Gartner: global AI spending is forecast to top $2 trillion in 2026 (with growth driven by AI being integrated into products like smartphones and PCs, plus infrastructure). [28]
- SEMI (via Reuters): chipmaking equipment sales are forecast to rise about 9% to $126 billion in 2026, then 7.3% to $135 billion in 2027, as capacity expands for logic and memory chips used in AI. [29]
These forecasts matter because they connect the dots between:
- AI demand (models and apps)
- AI delivery (cloud and enterprise services)
- AI buildout (fabs, tools, memory, power, data centers)
And when investors believe the chain is intact, semis tend to lead.
7) The risk side: geopolitics, valuation concentration, and “AI bubble” flashpoints
No AI-stocks roundup on Dec. 22 is complete without addressing the market’s biggest concerns—because those concerns are now moving prices intraday.
Export controls and China exposure are back in the spotlight
The Nvidia H200 story is a reminder that policy can change quickly—and licensing and approvals can add uncertainty even after a headline “yes.” [30]
Market concentration is increasingly part of the narrative
Reuters highlighted how concentrated U.S. equities have become: the combined value of the five biggest U.S. tech companies (including Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon) has been compared to entire major equity benchmarks and national markets, citing Goldman Sachs analysis. [31]
For AI-stock investors, concentration risk matters because:
- It can magnify drawdowns when sentiment shifts.
- It can force passive flows to behave in counterintuitive ways during volatility spikes.
“Power-hungry chips” critique adds another layer of debate
Business Insider reported that Michael Burry warned the U.S. could lose the AI race if it relies on increasingly power-hungry chips, arguing for more efficient, task-specific silicon approaches. Whether investors agree or not, the comment highlights how power constraints are no longer a niche topic—they’re becoming part of mainstream AI market debate. [32]
Palantir: AI demand vs. policy scrutiny
Meanwhile, The Guardian reported UK MPs are questioning Palantir-related government contracts after security concerns surfaced in reporting tied to Switzerland, reflecting how AI-adjacent analytics firms can face political and regulatory scrutiny even during strong market cycles. [33]
What to watch next for AI stocks this week
With a shortened trading week and heavy narrative sensitivity, the next catalysts may be as important as today’s headlines:
- Any additional clarity on export licensing and approval timelines for advanced AI chips to China (U.S. process + China’s import stance). [34]
- Memory pricing signals and commentary from the supply chain, since AI-driven DRAM demand is already spilling into consumer categories. [35]
- Capex guidance from hyperscalers and AI infrastructure partners, given how quickly “AI ROI” sentiment can change after Oracle/Broadcom-style margin or spending updates. [36]
- Macro data (GDP, consumer confidence, jobless claims) in a week where lighter volume can exaggerate reactions. [37]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gartner.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.businessinsider.com, 33. www.theguardian.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com
