December 22, 2025 — Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) ends the year with momentum on its side, but not without familiar crosswinds. After a strong 2025 run, investors are balancing a string of late-year regulatory wins and product catalysts against ongoing talc-related litigation headlines—two forces that continue to shape near-term sentiment around Johnson & Johnson stock.
As of Monday’s latest available pricing, JNJ shares traded around $206.63.
JNJ stock snapshot: strong 2025 rally, but the market is reassessing “what’s next”
Johnson & Johnson has been treated like a “defensive growth” name in 2025—an unusual combination that typically requires two things: confidence in pipeline execution and confidence that downside risks are containable. One widely followed valuation write-up notes that even after a recent weekly pullback, JNJ remained up more than 40% year-to-date and roughly mid‑40% over the past year, reflecting a market that has steadily re-rated the company’s outlook. [1]
That backdrop matters because many of today’s analyst forecasts for JNJ now hinge less on a “turnaround” and more on whether incremental positives—approvals, launches, and legal clarity—can justify further upside from already-elevated levels.
The biggest JNJ headline on Dec. 22: EU approval expands TREMFYA into pediatric psoriasis
Johnson & Johnson’s latest company announcement on December 22 centers on TREMFYA (guselkumab), a blockbuster immunology therapy. J&J said the European Commission expanded TREMFYA’s marketing authorization to treat moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in children and adolescents from age 6 who are candidates for systemic therapy—an expansion J&J described as the first pediatric indication for an IL‑23 inhibitor. The company said the decision is supported by the Phase 3 PROTOSTAR study. [2]
Why it matters for Johnson & Johnson stock: immunology remains a core earnings engine, and label expansions can strengthen product longevity—especially when they extend into earlier lines, younger populations, or broader geographies.
A late‑2025 drumbeat of regulatory wins is reinforcing the “pipeline execution” narrative
Beyond TREMFYA, Johnson & Johnson has stacked several notable regulatory and clinical milestones this month across both Innovative Medicine and MedTech:
1) RYBREVANT FASPRO: subcutaneous option aims to reduce treatment burden in EGFR‑mutated NSCLC
J&J announced the U.S. FDA approval of RYBREVANT FASPRO (amivantamab + hyaluronidase), describing it as the first and only subcutaneous therapy for patients with EGFR‑mutated non‑small cell lung cancer across RYBREVANT’s indications. The company highlighted a short administration time (minutes rather than hours) and a lower rate of administration-related reactions versus IV delivery in cited study data. [3]
2) TRUFILL n‑BCA (MedTech): expanded FDA indication for chronic subdural hematoma
J&J MedTech said the FDA approved an expanded indication for the TRUFILL n‑BCA Liquid Embolic System for embolization of the middle meningeal artery as an adjunct to surgery in symptomatic subacute and chronic subdural hematoma. The company pointed to results from the MEMBRANE randomized controlled trial in support of the approval. [4]
3) AKEEGA: FDA expands use into BRCA2‑mutated metastatic castration‑sensitive prostate cancer
On December 12, the U.S. FDA approved niraparib + abiraterone acetate (Akeega) with prednisone for adults with BRCA2‑mutated metastatic castration‑sensitive prostate cancer, as determined by an FDA‑approved test. The FDA described the decision and summarized efficacy evaluation in the AMPLITUDE trial. [5]
4) Tecvayli + Darzalex: FDA “National Priority Voucher” accelerates review timeline
In another attention‑getting development, Reuters reported that the FDA granted a National Priority Voucher to Johnson & Johnson’s Tecvayli in combination with Darzalex, under the agency’s pilot program designed to compress review timelines from the typical 10–12 months to 1–2 months for select applications. [6]
5) MajesTEC‑3: clinical data underpinning the multiple myeloma push
J&J also announced Phase 3 MajesTEC‑3 results supporting Tecvayli + Darzalex FASPRO as a potential earlier‑line standard of care in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, highlighting a large risk reduction versus standard regimens at long follow‑up. [7]
Investor takeaway: This cluster of milestones helps explain why JNJ has been able to rally in 2025 even as parts of Big Pharma wrestle with pricing and patent‑cycle concerns. The market is rewarding visible “execution,” not just long-range promise.
Litigation remains the other major driver: new talc verdicts keep headline risk alive
Even with product momentum, talc litigation continues to surface as a sentiment and valuation overhang—especially when jury verdicts arrive in quick succession.
Minnesota verdict: $65.5 million mesothelioma award
The Associated Press reported that a Minnesota jury awarded $65.5 million to the family of a man who died of mesothelioma, finding that J&J baby powder contributed to his cancer. [8]
Los Angeles verdict: $40 million award
Reuters separately reported that a Los Angeles jury awarded $40 million to a woman with mesothelioma in a case involving talc products, and noted that J&J has faced a large number of talc-related claims. [9]
The broader context: earlier settlement attempt faced a setback
A key reason litigation keeps resurfacing for investors is uncertainty around the “endgame.” Reuters previously reported that a judge rejected a proposed about $10 billion settlement plan tied to J&J’s talc liabilities that sought to use a bankruptcy strategy, reinforcing how complex (and potentially lengthy) the path to final resolution can be. [10]
What this means for JNJ stock: Even if the company continues to win approvals and post steady earnings, large verdict headlines can inject volatility, and the absence of a definitive global resolution can keep a “litigation discount” embedded in valuation debates.
Next major catalyst: Johnson & Johnson’s Q4 earnings on Jan. 21, 2026
Johnson & Johnson has set its next major investor checkpoint. The company said it will host an investor conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, to review fourth‑quarter results. [11]
What analysts are forecasting into earnings
Market expectations heading into the report focus on whether J&J can extend its growth cadence while absorbing legal costs and funding a deep R&D engine.
A market preview published Monday cited these expectations:
- Q4 EPS estimate: about $2.53, described as meaningfully higher year over year
- FY2025 EPS estimate: about $10.87
- FY2026 EPS estimate: about $11.49 [12]
Separately, an analyst-forecast roundup hosted by Nasdaq (via Fintel) pegged projected annual revenue at about $101.3 billion and projected annual non‑GAAP EPS around 11.26 (methodologies vary by provider). [13]
What to watch in the print: guidance language around 2026, updates on major launches and label expansions, and any incremental disclosure on litigation strategy or reserves. For a stock already up sharply in 2025, “good” results may need to be paired with confident forward commentary to move shares meaningfully higher.
Analyst price targets for JNJ stock: consensus points to limited upside—unless catalysts surprise
One reason Johnson & Johnson shares may be more sensitive to news flow than usual is that many consensus price targets now sit close to the current trading range.
- Nasdaq’s compiled forecast (via Fintel) listed an average one‑year price target near $206.71, with a wide range from about $171.70 to $241.50. [14]
- Another market preview put the average target closer to ~$211, with a “moderate buy” style consensus framing and a high target in the $240 area. [15]
Meanwhile, third‑party valuation commentary has leaned more bullish: one analysis published today argued that a DCF-based estimate implied substantial undervaluation, while noting JNJ trades at a P/E roughly in line with industry averages (again, model-driven and not a guarantee of future returns). [16]
How to interpret the mixed signals:
- Base case (consensus): JNJ is fairly valued after a major re‑rating in 2025.
- Bull case: regulatory wins + faster reviews + strong execution allow earnings expectations to rise, pushing targets up.
- Bear case: litigation headlines or earnings/guidance disappointment compress valuation and cap upside.
Dividend profile: why long-term holders still gravitate to JNJ shares
Even in a year dominated by clinical catalysts and courtroom headlines, many investors own Johnson & Johnson for a simpler reason: reliability.
Johnson & Johnson is widely tracked as a long-running dividend grower; one dividend-data summary lists 63 consecutive years of dividend growth, with an annualized dividend around $5.20 per share (yield fluctuates with price). [17]
That dividend identity can matter for JNJ stock performance in two ways:
- It supports demand from income-focused funds, especially when rates stabilize or fall.
- It can reduce drawdowns relative to higher-volatility healthcare peers during risk-off periods.
Key risks and catalysts to watch into 2026
If you’re following Johnson & Johnson stock heading into the new year, these are the variables most likely to move the share price:
Potential upside catalysts
- More label expansions and launch traction across oncology and immunology (e.g., EGFR‑mutated lung cancer offerings, myeloma programs, pediatric immunology expansions). [18]
- Faster regulatory timelines enabled by priority programs (where applicable). [19]
- A Q4 earnings report and 2026 outlook that beat expectations. [20]
Key downside risks
- Additional large jury verdicts or legal setbacks that increase uncertainty around ultimate talc liability. [21]
- Any signs that growth is slowing after a strong 2025 re‑rating (because valuation support becomes harder). [22]
Bottom line: JNJ stock enters 2026 with momentum—but catalysts must offset litigation uncertainty
On December 22, 2025, the investment case for JNJ stock is unusually balanced. The company is delivering a steady stream of approvals and clinically meaningful updates—exactly what long-term shareholders want to see. At the same time, talc litigation remains capable of driving day‑to‑day volatility and keeping valuation debates active.
With Q4 earnings scheduled for January 21, 2026, the next leg for Johnson & Johnson shares likely depends on whether management can pair operational consistency with greater clarity on risk—especially on the legal front. [23]
References
1. simplywall.st, 2. www.jnj.com, 3. www.investor.jnj.com, 4. www.investor.jnj.com, 5. www.fda.gov, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.jnj.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.jnj.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.barchart.com, 16. simplywall.st, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.investor.jnj.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.jnj.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.jnj.com
