Home Depot stock (NYSE: HD) is trading modestly higher on Monday, December 22, 2025, as investors weigh a steady stream of analyst commentary against the company’s recently reset expectations for 2026—a year management expects to remain closely tied to housing-market momentum and the timing of a recovery in bigger-ticket renovation spending.
As of the latest update Monday afternoon (UTC), Home Depot shares were around $347, up roughly 0.7% on the day, with the session ranging roughly from the mid-$343s to the high-$347s.
Home Depot stock price check: where HD trades on Dec. 22, 2025
Home Depot’s share price is still being shaped less by day-to-day headlines and more by the market’s debate over one question: when does housing activity meaningfully re-accelerate—and how quickly does that translate into larger home-improvement projects?
Key context investors are tracking:
- HD is down about ~10% to ~11% year-to-date depending on the measure cited, a lag versus the broader market’s 2025 performance. [1]
- Trading on Dec. 22 has been relatively orderly: the stock’s move is incremental, not a “breakout” day, with volume and range consistent with a market focused on 2026 earnings power rather than a new surprise catalyst.
What’s new today (Dec. 22): the day’s HD headlines and fresh analysis
While there’s no major corporate announcement from Home Depot dated today, Dec. 22 has delivered a cluster of investor-facing updates—price targets, “fair value” discussions, and strategic debate about whether HD is the right way to play a housing recovery.
1) Wolfe nudges its price target up to $415, keeps Outperform
In one of the most concrete “today-only” updates, Wolfe adjusted its Home Depot price target to $415 from $414 and reiterated an Outperform view, per MT Newswires via MarketScreener. [2]
On its own, a $1 target change isn’t market-moving. But it reinforces that the bull case remains intact for some analysts—typically anchored to Home Depot’s scale, Pro penetration, and operating discipline once demand normalizes.
2) Zacks: Pro momentum vs. a slower DIY backdrop
A Zacks commentary piece published today frames the near-term debate clearly: can Pro strength and acquisitions offset softer DIY demand until housing improves? [3]
That thesis matters because Home Depot is increasingly positioning itself as a Pro-first operator through logistics, supply-chain investment, and bolt-on growth.
3) TipRanks: “Timing is the challenge” (neutral stance despite long-term quality)
A TipRanks analysis published today argues HD is “exceptionally well-positioned” for the next upcycle—yet still urges patience due to uncertain timing for the inflection in housing and project demand. The piece cites a Moderate Buy consensus rating and a consensus price target around $401.85. [4]
4) HD vs. Lowe’s debate heats up into 2026
A separate opinion-style analysis published today compares Home Depot with Lowe’s heading into 2026, highlighting HD’s 2025 underperformance and valuation differences between the two home-improvement giants. [5]
5) Institutional positioning and “upgrade” chatter circulates
MarketBeat filings and roundups published today point to ongoing institutional ownership activity and note that analyst upgrades and price target changes are contributing to short-term sentiment. [6]
6) MarketWatch consensus targets refreshed (updated today)
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimates page shows an update timestamp of Dec. 22, 2025, and lists an average target price around $401 with roughly three dozen analyst ratings. [7]
Taken together, today’s headlines suggest a market that’s recalibrating expectations—not rewriting the Home Depot story.
The bigger driver: Home Depot’s 2026 outlook reset (and why Wall Street reacted)
To understand why the market remains so sensitive to incremental analyst notes, investors have to zoom out to the company’s investor-day framework and 2026 setup.
On Dec. 9, 2025, Reuters reported that Home Depot’s forecast for fiscal 2026 came in below analyst expectations on key metrics. Home Depot projected:
- Comparable sales growth of flat to 2% for fiscal 2026 (below the analyst average cited by Reuters at the time), and
- Adjusted EPS growth of flat to +4% (below the analyst estimate cited by Reuters). [8]
Management’s explanation in that report was consistent with what has weighed on the category for multiple quarters: no clear catalyst in housing activity yet, and consumers showing ongoing hesitation toward larger discretionary projects. [9]
That outlook “reset” is why analyst coverage in mid-to-late December has leaned heavily on words like “timing,” “inflection,” and “risk-reward.” [10]
What Home Depot’s latest results say about demand right now
Home Depot’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q3 2025, released Nov. 18, 2025) provides the factual backbone behind today’s “wait for housing” debate.
In its earnings release, Home Depot reported:
- Sales of $41.4 billion in Q3 fiscal 2025, up 2.8% year over year
- Comparable sales up 0.2% (U.S. comps up 0.1%)
- Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.74, down from $3.78 a year earlier [11]
Management explicitly pointed to consumer uncertainty and housing pressure as key demand constraints, noting that the expected pickup in demand “did not materialize.” [12]
Reuters’ coverage of that same quarter added important color: Home Depot forecast a bigger drop in full-year profit as demand for big-ticket projects stayed soft amid tariff-driven uncertainty and housing pressure. [13]
Guidance: what Home Depot is telling investors to expect
Fiscal 2025: modest sales growth, EPS pressure
In the Nov. 18 release, Home Depot updated fiscal 2025 guidance to include:
- Total sales growth ~3.0%
- Comparable sales “slightly positive” for the comparable 52-week period
- Adjusted EPS expected to decline ~5% from fiscal 2024 [14]
This is one reason many analysts and commentators are hesitant to call HD a near-term “momentum” stock: earnings are still expected to be down year over year in fiscal 2025 even with sales growth. [15]
Fiscal 2026: a base case that assumes housing remains pressured
Home Depot’s 2026 framework—and Reuters’ reporting around it—puts the spotlight on the same theme: pressure persists until housing turns. [16]
In plain language, management is telling investors: 2026 can improve, but the company is not underwriting a dramatic rebound without clearer housing signals.
The Pro vs. DIY split: why it matters for HD’s next leg
A recurring thread in today’s analysis is whether Home Depot’s Pro ecosystem can keep growth stable while DIY demand remains muted.
Two data points stand out from the latest quarter:
- Home Depot’s Q3 release shows average ticket up year over year while comparable transactions fell, a pattern consistent with customers doing fewer projects—but still spending on the projects they choose to do. [17]
- The company also disclosed that the acquisition of GMS Inc. contributed about $900 million of sales in the quarter (about eight weeks of contribution), and management incorporated GMS into full-year guidance. [18]
That mix matters because Pro demand (repairs, maintenance, contracted work) tends to be more resilient than purely discretionary DIY remodeling—especially when mortgage-rate dynamics discourage home moves and major renovations. [19]
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees HD going from here
Despite the near-term caution, Wall Street’s aggregate view still leans constructive—just not euphoric.
- TipRanks cites a consensus price target of about $401.85 and a Moderate Buy consensus rating mix. [20]
- MarketWatch’s page updated today lists an average target price around $401 with roughly 37 ratings. [21]
- Wolfe’s updated target is $415 with Outperform reiterated. [22]
With HD around the mid-$340s to high-$340s today, those targets imply mid-teens upside in the base consensus view, with higher upside implied by more bullish targets—if housing and big-ticket demand begin to re-accelerate. [23]
Valuation and dividend: what “fairly valued” looks like in today’s debate
Today’s commentary also reflects a valuation tension:
- One view (featured in the TipRanks piece) argues the stock looks roughly fairly valued right now, with the timing of the macro inflection being the key missing ingredient for a stronger call. [24]
- Meanwhile, some market summaries continue to highlight Home Depot’s dividend profile—often cited around $9.20 annualized with a yield in the high-2% range, depending on the share price. [25]
For long-term investors, the practical question is whether HD’s current valuation is pricing in a “slow recovery” (management’s tone) or whether the market could re-rate quickly if housing activity turns faster than expected. [26]
Next catalyst: when Home Depot reports earnings again
The next major scheduled catalyst for Home Depot stock is the company’s next earnings report, widely tracked for late February.
Zacks’ earnings calendar lists Home Depot’s next earnings date as February 24, 2026. [27]
That report is likely to matter for three reasons:
- It should include more detailed framing on 2026, beyond the preliminary investor-day ranges. [28]
- It will show whether Pro demand is holding up as expected and whether DIY remains under pressure. [29]
- Investors will scrutinize any signals on big-ticket categories and whether housing activity is beginning to thaw. [30]
Risks investors keep circling back to
Even bulls tend to agree the risk list is straightforward—and very macro-linked:
- Housing “inflection” remains elusive. Management has said it has not yet seen a clear catalyst in housing activity. [31]
- Large discretionary projects are still soft, which hits big-ticket categories that typically drive operating leverage. [32]
- Margin pressure can linger due to operating costs and broader cost dynamics (tariffs, wages, logistics), themes highlighted by Reuters around recent quarters. [33]
- Execution risk on acquisitions remains a watch item as the company integrates recent deals and works to extract the Pro-focused benefits. [34]
Bottom line: what Dec. 22’s coverage implies for HD stock
The tone of today’s Home Depot stock coverage is best described as constructive but not impatient.
- Constructive because consensus targets still point higher, and firms like Wolfe remain positive. [35]
- Not impatient because multiple analyses—especially today’s “timing” framing—stress that a clearer housing catalyst may be required before the stock meaningfully rerates. [36]
For investors following Home Depot (HD) into year-end and early 2026, the playbook remains consistent: watch housing activity, monitor Pro demand durability, and treat the February earnings update as the next major checkpoint for whether the 2026 ranges look conservative—or simply realistic. [37]
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. 247wallst.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. ir.homedepot.com, 12. ir.homedepot.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. ir.homedepot.com, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. ir.homedepot.com, 18. ir.homedepot.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.zacks.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. ir.homedepot.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. ir.homedepot.com, 35. www.marketscreener.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. www.zacks.com
