Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) ended Monday’s regular session modestly higher and then traded mostly flat after the bell—yet the headline flow around China-focused AI accelerators is setting up AMD for another potentially news-driven session when U.S. markets reopen Tuesday, Dec. 23.
AMD shares closed at $214.95 (+0.71%) and were little changed in after-hours trading around $215.05–$215.08 as of roughly 6:04–6:06 p.m. ET. [1]
What matters now isn’t the small after-hours tick. It’s the reason AMD moved at all in a thin, holiday-shortened tape—and the fact that several catalysts (and risks) could hit premarket tomorrow.
AMD stock after the bell: the quick snapshot
- Close (4:00 p.m. ET): $214.95, up about 0.7% [2]
- After-hours (around 6:04–6:06 p.m. ET): ~ $215.05–$215.08, essentially flat [3]
- Monday range: AMD traded through a wide intraday band (roughly $213s to $220s), a reminder that even on a “quiet” day, the stock can swing quickly on AI-chip headlines.
Holiday conditions also matter: U.S. markets are heading into early close Wednesday and closed Thursday for Christmas, a setup that can amplify moves on relatively small bursts of news. [4]
What moved AMD today: the Alibaba–MI308 chatter
The central AMD-specific headline in Monday’s coverage: reports that Alibaba is considering a very large order of AMD’s MI308 AI accelerators—described as tens of thousands of units, with several market reports citing roughly 40,000 to 50,000. [5]
There are two reasons this particular rumor carries weight for AMD traders:
- It’s about AI accelerators (where investor expectations are highest).
AMD’s Instinct accelerator roadmap is one of the market’s most important pillars for the stock narrative going into 2026. - It’s about China (where policy risk and upside can both be large).
A large China-related AI order can boost the growth story—but it also drags export-licensing, political scrutiny, and timing uncertainty directly into the near-term trading setup.
Important caveat: Neither AMD nor Alibaba has publicly confirmed such an order in the reporting summarized by mainstream market outlets today, and multiple reports explicitly noted that final terms and timing were unclear. [6]
The bigger backdrop: Nvidia’s China shipping plan and Washington scrutiny
Even though Nvidia is AMD’s primary rival in data-center GPUs, Nvidia’s China export situation is influencing the entire AI-chip complex right now.
Nvidia: shipments to China before Lunar New Year
Reuters reported that Nvidia has told Chinese customers it aims to begin shipping its H200 AI chips to China before the Lunar New Year (mid-February), using existing inventory for initial systems. [7]
That matters for AMD because it reinforces the idea that China demand for high-end AI compute is still enormous—and that U.S. policy shifts can quickly reshape the addressable market for “China-compliant” accelerators.
Political pressure: lawmakers want transparency on approvals
On Monday, Reuters also reported that U.S. lawmakers demanded disclosures related to approvals for AI chip exports to China—highlighting the risk that political scrutiny could tighten again even after any near-term policy thaw. [8]
For AMD investors, this is the core tension:
- Upside: China orders can be large and incremental.
- Risk: Export permissions, fees, and political backlash can delay revenue or cap volumes.
Why MI308 is a key lever for AMD (and why guidance language matters)
If you’re trying to judge whether “tens of thousands” of MI308 units would be material, one detail from AMD itself is crucial:
In its Q3 2025 financial release (Nov. 4, 2025), AMD said its outlook did not include any revenue from MI308 shipments to China. [9]
That single sentence is why today’s Alibaba order chatter has such leverage. If China shipments (or big orders) move from “excluded” to “real,” investors may start modeling upside to forward revenue—even if the timing is uncertain.
There’s also the policy/fee structure: Reuters reported earlier this month that AMD was prepared to pay a 15% fee/tax on MI308 shipments to China under the current framework. [10]
Wall Street forecasts and valuation talk that circulated today
Monday’s “AMD forecast” conversation was less about a brand-new upgrade and more about where consensus sits and how investors should think about AMD vs. peers.
Analyst price targets: upside exists, but the range is wide
Different aggregators show different consensus figures (based on which analysts are included and how stale targets are treated), but the theme is consistent: the Street is generally constructive, and targets vary a lot.
- TipRanks described AMD as holding a “Strong Buy” consensus with an average target around $280 (about ~31% upside from current levels, per its methodology). [11]
- MarketBeat listed a consensus price target of about $277 (also ~29% upside) and showed a wide target range (roughly $140 to $380). [12]
- StockAnalysis showed a more conservative average target around $240, while still listing a high target well above current levels. [13]
The takeaway: AMD bulls point to meaningful upside on accelerating AI revenue, while skeptics point to execution and competitive risk—especially versus Nvidia.
A valuation caution that got airtime today
A widely circulated commentary published on Nasdaq (via The Motley Fool) argued that AMD is trading at a richer valuation than Nvidia, and suggested that—even if AMD can succeed without “beating” Nvidia—investors may want a better entry point. [14]
You don’t have to agree with that conclusion for it to matter. When a stock is priced for growth, headline-driven rallies can fade quickly if follow-through confirmation doesn’t appear (for example, if the Alibaba story doesn’t progress).
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025)
Here’s the practical, premarket checklist for AMD traders and long-term holders going into Tuesday’s open:
1) Any confirmation—or denial—of the Alibaba MI308 report
Because the story is currently framed as “considering” and “reported,” the next step for AMD could be driven by:
- follow-up reporting clarifying order size, timing, and licensing
- any corporate statements (even “no comment” can affect sentiment in a thin market) [15]
2) China export policy headlines can swing the entire AI-chip group
Two forces are colliding:
- a reported ramp of Nvidia China shipments [16]
- political scrutiny and requests for disclosure that could foreshadow tighter oversight [17]
If export approvals become a bigger political story, AMD can move even without any company-specific update.
3) Macro data hits before the bell—watch rates and growth-stock sensitivity
Tuesday morning features a major backlog release:
- The BEA’s “Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate)” is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. [18]
Other scheduled releases Tuesday include durable goods orders and consumer confidence (per major economic calendars). [19]
Why AMD investors should care: tech and AI leaders can react sharply to rate expectations, especially in low-liquidity holiday sessions.
4) Expect thinner liquidity and potentially exaggerated moves
Reuters and other outlets highlighted the holiday-shortened week dynamics (including early close Wednesday and closed Thursday), which often means less volume and more volatility around headlines. [20]
5) Know the next big AMD calendar markers beyond tomorrow
Even though they’re not “tomorrow catalysts,” they shape positioning:
- AMD’s next earnings is widely expected around Feb. 3, 2026 (after market), based on earnings calendars. [21]
- AMD also has a high-visibility CES 2026 keynote scheduled for Jan. 5 at 6:30 p.m. PT / 9:30 p.m. ET (AMD’s event page). [22]
Bottom line for AMD stock heading into Tuesday
AMD finished Monday higher and traded essentially flat after-hours—yet the market is clearly trading the “China-compliant AI accelerator” storyline again, with the reported Alibaba MI308 interest acting as the spark. [23]
For Tuesday’s open, the setup is straightforward:
- If the Alibaba/MI308 thread gains credibility (more detail, stronger sourcing, or confirmation), AMD could see renewed upside pressure—especially given AMD previously excluded MI308 China revenue from its outlook. [24]
- If the story cools or export politics heats up, AMD could churn or retrace in a thin tape—especially with macro data arriving before the bell. [25]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. ir.amd.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.benzinga.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.bea.gov, 19. www.kiplinger.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.zacks.com, 22. www.amd.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. ir.amd.com, 25. www.reuters.com
