Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) ended Monday’s regular session in the red, but the stock nudged higher in after-hours trading as investors weighed a fresh Bank of America upgrade against a holiday-thinned market and a busy U.S. economic calendar set for Tuesday morning. [1]
Below is what matters most after the bell on 22/12/2025—and what to keep on your radar before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025.
Intel stock after-hours: the key numbers investors are watching
Regular session (Monday, Dec. 22):
- INTC closed at $36.37, down 1.22% on the day, underperforming many mega-cap chip peers during a broadly positive session for U.S. equities. [2]
- Trading volume was light versus recent averages (roughly 48.1 million shares vs. a 50‑day average near 94.7 million, per MarketWatch), a detail that matters even more in the final pre-Christmas stretch when liquidity can vanish quickly. [3]
- Intel finished the day still well below its 52‑week high of $44.02 (hit on Dec. 3), keeping the stock’s December pullback in focus. [4]
After-hours (Monday evening):
- INTC was around $36.48, up roughly 0.3% in extended trading as of early evening ET, signaling a modest attempt to stabilize after the cash-session decline. [5]
A crucial caveat: after-hours moves can be noisy, especially in a holiday-shortened week. Small orders can create price prints that look meaningful—but may not hold once premarket volume arrives.
The headline driver today: Bank of America upgrades Intel to “Overweight”
The most market-relevant Intel-specific development circulating Monday was Bank of America analyst Tom Curcuruto upgrading Intel to “Overweight” from “Marketweight.” [6]
In the note, Curcuruto’s core points were about financial trajectory and relative positioning, not a sudden “AI breakout” story:
- Improved stability and liquidity were central to the upgrade. [7]
- BofA argued Intel’s lower exposure to the AI demand cycle could be a feature (not a bug) if investors grow concerned about AI infrastructure “overheating.” [8]
- The bank highlighted a marked improvement in credit metrics in Q3, supported by asset-sale proceeds and equity investments, and flagged a return to positive free cash flow for the first time since 2023. [9]
- BofA also said it raised FY25 and FY26 EBITDA estimates by ~20% and ~18%, respectively, and expects leverage to keep improving into 2026. [10]
Why this matters for Tuesday’s open: upgrades don’t always “move the stock” instantly, but they can change the tone—especially if other desks echo the thesis (balance-sheet repair, cash-flow inflection, and a valuation reset narrative).
The counter-narrative in today’s Intel commentary: “competitor or partner” tension
Alongside the upgrade optimism, another theme resurfaced in Monday’s Intel stock conversation: whether Intel’s structure makes it harder to win major foundry clients.
In a widely shared commentary piece, former Intel board member David Yoffie argued that major chip designers may hesitate to commit large volumes to Intel Foundry because they don’t want to give a rival access to sensitive “secret sauce” manufacturing know-how—an argument used to support the idea of separating the foundry business from the product business. [11]
The same piece noted Intel has been working toward making Intel Foundry more independent, and quoted Intel executive John Pitzer suggesting that if a spin-off creates additional value, Intel would consider it. [12]
This debate matters because foundry credibility is one of the biggest “swing factors” in Intel’s 2026 narrative: the market can forgive near-term margin pressure if it believes the foundry can land durable, external demand at scale.
The broader backdrop tonight: semiconductors rebounded, but holiday liquidity is the wild card
Intel didn’t trade in a vacuum Monday.
Reuters reported U.S. stocks opened the week higher in a holiday-shortened environment, with tech strength and a positive tone across parts of semiconductors helping keep major indices near recent highs. Reuters also flagged expectations for light trading, with the market set to close early Wednesday and remain closed Thursday for Christmas. [13]
That setup creates two conditions that Intel traders should respect heading into Tuesday:
- Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves (up or down) on headlines, upgrades, or macro data surprises.
- Macro releases can hit harder when positioning is “lighter” and fewer participants are willing to fade momentum.
Intel forecasts investors are referencing right now
1) Near-term operating “knowns”: Intel’s latest company guidance still frames the next earnings story
Intel’s most recent formal outlook (from its Q3 results package) continues to anchor expectations for the next report:
- Q4 2025 revenue guidance:$12.8B to $13.8B
- Q4 2025 non‑GAAP EPS guidance:$0.08
- Q4 2025 non‑GAAP gross margin guidance:~36.5% [14]
Even though that guidance dates back to October, it remains the baseline that models (and sentiment) tend to orbit—unless the company or supply-chain checks materially shift assumptions before the print.
2) Street targets and consensus still look cautious despite Intel’s 2025 run
While BofA’s tone improved today, broader consensus remains mixed:
- MarketBeat’s aggregated view shows a “Reduce” consensus rating (based on 34 analysts), with an average 12‑month price target around $34.84—slightly below Monday’s close. [15]
That tension—improving balance-sheet story vs. lukewarm consensus—is often where volatility comes from: if incremental data points support the turnaround, target revisions can follow; if not, “already rallied” becomes the dominant narrative.
3) What the tape says about Intel’s positioning into year-end
MarketScreener’s snapshot underscores how much of Intel’s 2025 story has been about big-picture re-rating—and why December has become more two-sided:
- Intel showed strong gains for the year (MarketScreener shows +81% current year) while simultaneously posting a weak current month (about ‑10%), a combo that often signals profit-taking into year-end after a major run. [16]
- The 52‑week range shown there (roughly $17.66 to $44.02) illustrates the magnitude of the turnaround trade—and how sensitive sentiment can be when the stock pulls back from the highs. [17]
What to know before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025
Here’s a practical checklist for Intel stock watchers ahead of Tuesday’s bell—focused on catalysts that can move tech valuations and chip stocks quickly.
1) Key U.S. economic releases (times in ET)
According to the New York Fed’s national economic calendar, Tuesday includes several market-moving prints:
- 8:30 a.m. ET:GDP (3rd release)
- 10:00 a.m. ET:Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 a.m. ET:New Residential Sales
- 10:00 a.m. ET:Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity [18]
Why Intel traders should care: GDP and confidence can swing Treasury yields and risk appetite, and semiconductors often react sharply to changes in rate expectations—especially in thin holiday tape.
2) Watch for sector-level AI/export headlines that can ripple into semis
Even when Intel isn’t the center of the story, the semiconductor group can move on policy and trade news. For example, Reuters reported today that U.S. lawmakers pressed for disclosure around license reviews tied to Nvidia’s H200 chip sales to China, an issue that can influence broader sentiment around AI supply chains and regulation. [19]
3) Recent Intel-specific “overhang” headlines can resurface fast
Two Intel-linked issues from the past week remain the kind that can pop back into premarket conversations:
- National security scrutiny: Reuters reported last week that Republican lawmakers criticized Intel after reports it evaluated certain chipmaking tools tied to a company with links to China; Intel said it is not using those tools in production and complies with U.S. law. [20]
- Nvidia investment clearance: Reuters also reported U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, removing a regulatory obstacle for that transaction. [21]
Neither is “new” tonight—but in low-liquidity tape, old headlines can regain influence quickly if they connect to a bigger theme (U.S.-China tech tension, supply-chain sovereignty, or funding the foundry buildout).
4) Price levels people will reference (not as predictions—just as “where the crowd is looking”)
Into Tuesday, many market participants will naturally anchor to:
- The $36–$37 zone where Intel closed and traded after-hours. [22]
- The recent 52‑week high near $44 as the “regain momentum” milestone—and the fact the stock remains meaningfully below it. [23]
- Signs of liquidity returning (or not): Monday’s volume was notably below recent averages. [24]
The bottom line for Intel stock tonight
Intel stock slipped during the regular session but stabilized slightly after hours, with the biggest fresh catalyst being Bank of America’s upgrade grounded in balance-sheet repair, improving credit metrics, and a better 2026 leverage trajectory. [25]
Before Tuesday’s open, the two biggest forces to watch are:
- Macro data (especially 8:30 a.m. ET GDP) that can move rates and risk appetite fast. [26]
- The ongoing “Intel debate”: turnaround and liquidity improvements vs. structural questions about foundry strategy and customer trust—a tension highlighted again in today’s commentary cycle. [27]
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.intc.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.newyorkfed.org, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.newyorkfed.org, 27. www.investing.com
