Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is ending 2025 in a familiar place for long-time investors—right at the center of a high-stakes debate about what Intel is supposed to be. Is it a classic CPU giant fighting to regain product leadership? A U.S.-anchored foundry champion meant to rival TSMC? Or both at once?
On Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025, that identity question is colliding with a fresh wave of Wall Street calls, a closely watched Nvidia investment now cleared by U.S. antitrust agencies, and renewed arguments that Intel’s foundry ambitions may be limited by one simple issue: trust. [1]
Intel stock price today: INTC snapshot for Dec. 23, 2025
As of the latest trading update available on Dec. 23, Intel shares traded around $36.36, essentially flat on the day (-0.01, about -0.03%) after opening near $36.25. The intraday range has been roughly $36.04 to $36.80, with volume around 15.3 million shares at the time of the update.
For context, Intel’s 52-week range has been $17.67 to $44.02, underscoring how sharply sentiment swung in 2025—from deep pessimism to a sizable rebound, and then back into a choppier consolidation. [2]
The big Intel stock stories investors are tracking on Dec. 23
1) Bank of America turns more positive on Intel
A widely circulated note this week: Bank of America upgraded Intel to Overweight from Marketweight, citing improved stability, stronger liquidity, and more compelling relative value. Importantly, BofA also pointed to improving credit metrics, helped by asset-sale proceeds and equity investments, and highlighted a return to positive free cash flow for the first time since 2023—a key turning point for a turnaround story that has often struggled to translate strategy into cash generation. [3]
That upgrade matters not just because it’s bullish, but because it frames Intel less as an “AI winner” and more as a stabilizing value/recovery play with potentially improving financial plumbing.
2) Nvidia’s Intel investment is cleared—removing a major overhang
One of Intel’s most important strategic headlines in recent days: U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, according to a Federal Trade Commission notice reported by Reuters. Nvidia previously announced it would invest $5 billion in Intel—an unusually high-profile endorsement for a company still rebuilding credibility in advanced manufacturing and AI compute. [4]
For INTC shareholders, this clearance doesn’t automatically create revenue, but it removes a meaningful regulatory uncertainty around a deal that has become central to the “Intel is back” narrative.
3) The foundry “trust gap” is back in focus—again
A fresh Dec. 23 commentary reignited a long-running question: Can Intel Foundry scale into a true merchant foundry while Intel Products still competes with the very customers Intel Foundry wants to win? Former Intel board member David Yoffie argued that leading chip designers may hesitate to hand Intel their “crown jewels,” and he pointed to a potential remedy: separating the foundry business from the product business. [5]
In parallel coverage, Intel’s situation has been described as an identity crisis—partner and competitor—where even supportive analysts acknowledge that the structure itself can make customer wins harder. [6]
4) Policy and geopolitics remain a live risk factor
Separately, Reuters reported that Republican lawmakers criticized Intel after a prior Reuters report said the company was evaluating chipmaking tools linked to ACM Research, whose China-connected units were sanctioned. Intel said it is not currently using those tools in production and that it complies with U.S. rules, but the episode highlights how political scrutiny can attach itself to Intel’s ambitions—especially as Intel seeks government-backed expansion and “trusted supply chain” status. [7]
Intel’s 2025 turnaround, in one storyline
Intel’s 2025 narrative has been shaped by leadership change and a more aggressive operational posture.
Reuters previously reported that new CEO Lip-Bu Tan planned a sweeping bid to revive Intel, including manufacturing and AI strategy changes and a willingness to make tough calls, including potential staff reductions and management reshuffling. The overarching priority: make Intel’s manufacturing arm more effective and more attractive to outside customers—while also rebuilding Intel’s AI position. [8]
That turnaround began to show up in reported results and forward guidance. In Intel’s Q3 2025 financial release, the company reported $13.7 billion in revenue (up 3% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.23, while guiding for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8B–$13.8B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.08. Intel’s release also noted balance-sheet strengthening steps and referenced investments by major partners, including Nvidia. [9]
Reuters coverage of the quarter emphasized that cost-cutting and execution improvements helped Intel beat profit expectations, while also noting that Intel’s stock had risen sharply in 2025. [10]
The core debate for Intel stock: can Intel Foundry win big customers while Intel Products still competes?
Intel’s boldest strategic bet is not merely “better CPUs.” It’s the idea that Intel can run:
- a world-class product company (x86 platforms, client and data center), and
- a world-class merchant foundry (manufacturing chips for other firms)
…at the same time.
But on Dec. 23, one theme is dominating the discussion: customer reluctance. In commentary published today, former Intel board member David Yoffie argued that designers like Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm may hesitate to place high-volume manufacturing with a company that also competes with them—unless the walls are strong enough to remove even the perception of technology leakage. [11]
Intel’s response, as described in the same coverage, is to push for more structural separation and “optionality,” including steps toward distinct governance and legal structuring for Intel Foundry. [12]
This is not just a philosophical argument—it’s a revenue argument. A foundry doesn’t become a true profit engine on small pilot runs. It needs repeatable, high-volume, multi-year commitments.
Nvidia’s backing helps—but it doesn’t automatically solve the foundry problem
Investors like the optics of Nvidia’s involvement, but the market is still trying to interpret what it means operationally.
- The regulatory clearance removes a deal overhang and reinforces the legitimacy of the relationship. [13]
- But the bigger question is whether Intel can translate strategic partnerships into foundry utilization—the kind of steady demand that can support massive U.S. and global capex plans.
Recent market chatter shows why this matters. In late November, Intel shares surged in a shortened session after commentary from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo fueled speculation that Apple could eventually become a customer—a scenario widely viewed as credibility-changing for Intel Foundry if it ever materializes. Intel and Apple did not comment to Investopedia at the time, but the episode underscores how sensitive INTC can be to customer-win narratives. [14]
Intel stock forecasts: what analysts are projecting right now
Consensus rating: Neutral, with a tight upside skew
On Investing.com’s consensus compilation (polling recent analyst inputs), Intel’s overall consensus is Neutral, with 5 Buy, 33 Hold, and 7 Sell ratings (based on the prior three months of data in that snapshot). [15]
The average 12-month price target shown there is $38.14, implying roughly ~5% upside from the referenced price level on that page. The low estimate cited is around $20.40, and the high estimate is $52.00—a wide dispersion that reflects how differently analysts handicap Intel’s execution risk. [16]
A second consensus view: modest upside after a huge run
TipRanks, in a Dec. 23 update, also described a Hold consensus and put its displayed average price target around $38.09, implying only modest upside—after what it characterized as roughly an 82%+ rally over the prior year window. [17]
The “new” bullish framing: improving finances, not an AI mania trade
The most market-moving near-term forecast shift comes from BofA’s upgrade logic: Intel as a stabilizing story with improving liquidity, improving leverage metrics, and a potential buffer from AI capex overheating given Intel’s comparatively lower direct exposure to the hottest AI demand cycle. [18]
What to watch next for INTC stock: earnings timing and the numbers that matter
Next earnings: late January 2026 window (still not confirmed)
Intel has not confirmed a next earnings date in these third-party calendars, but multiple widely used market schedules cluster around late January 2026:
- MarketBeat lists an estimated earnings date of Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026, noting it is not confirmed. [19]
- Wall Street Horizon also shows Jan. 29, 2026 as unconfirmed for Q4 2025 after-market. [20]
Because dates differ across platforms and remain unconfirmed, investors typically treat them as a planning window rather than a guarantee.
The near-term benchmark: Intel’s own Q4 guidance
Until Intel updates the market, the clearest “forecast” is still the company’s Q4 outlook from its Q3 release:
- Q4 2025 revenue: $12.8B–$13.8B
- Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS: $0.08
- (Also: guidance excludes Altera following the majority stake sale completed in Q3 2025.) [21]
For Intel stock, the market’s reaction often hinges less on whether Intel hits the midpoint and more on what management signals about:
- foundry customer traction,
- manufacturing yields and ramp timelines (e.g., Intel 18A and future nodes), and
- whether improving execution translates into durable free cash flow.
Bull case vs. bear case for Intel stock into 2026
The bull case: Intel’s “credible execution” phase finally sticks
A constructive view of Intel stock going into 2026 typically rests on a chain of improvements:
- Operational discipline under Lip-Bu Tan continues, with cost control and sharper decision-making. [22]
- Intel’s reported financial trajectory stabilizes further—consistent with the “improved stability/liquidity” framing that helped support the recent BofA upgrade. [23]
- The Nvidia relationship and other ecosystem signals help Intel Foundry convert interest into repeatable, high-volume customer commitments. [24]
If that happens, the valuation conversation can shift from “Intel is surviving” to “Intel can compound again.”
The bear case: structure and geopolitics keep blocking the foundry flywheel
The skeptical view is that Intel’s biggest challenges aren’t only technical—they’re structural and political:
- Foundry trust issues persist as long as Intel remains both a competitor and a supplier, limiting the most profitable customer wins. [25]
- Regulatory and national-security scrutiny intensifies as Intel expands leading-edge ambitions, potentially creating headline risk and policy constraints. [26]
- Even if Intel executes well operationally, the semiconductor cycle and competitive pressure can keep margins under stress, making it difficult to justify aggressive price targets without clearer evidence of durable market-share gains.
Bottom line on Intel stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Intel stock is trading around the mid-$30s today, and the story is no longer “only bad news.” Bulls can point to a major Wall Street upgrade, a high-profile Nvidia investment now cleared by U.S. antitrust agencies, and Intel’s own recent results and guidance as evidence that the turnaround is gaining traction. [27]
But the central question that keeps resurfacing—especially in today’s commentary—is whether Intel can build a truly competitive merchant foundry without resolving the partner-versus-competitor tension that makes prospective customers nervous. Until Intel shows unmistakable proof of large, sustained foundry wins and durable financial improvement, most forecasts still cluster around “neutral with modest upside,” not an outright bullish consensus. [28]
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.fudzilla.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.intc.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.fudzilla.com, 12. www.fudzilla.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 21. www.intc.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.fudzilla.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com
