Fermi Inc. (NASDAQ & LSE: FRMI) is having the kind of December that turns a “future-of-AI-infrastructure” story into a market stress test. In Tuesday’s trading (December 23, 2025), FRMI was changing hands in the mid‑$8 range—down roughly mid‑single digits on the day—after a turbulent two weeks dominated by one headline: a prospective anchor tenant terminated a $150 million construction-funding agreement tied to Fermi’s Project Matador campus in Texas. [1]
The stock’s pullback has been amplified by a second plot twist: Business Insider reported that Amazon was the unnamed tenant behind the terminated agreement, but Reuters reported that Fermi explicitly denied Business Insider’s claims (including statements attributed to CEO Toby Neugebauer). Amazon did not comment to Reuters. [2]
So where does that leave FRMI shareholders today—between mega-ambition and mega-uncertainty? Below is a full, up-to-date wrap of what’s moving Fermi Inc stock on December 23, 2025, including the latest published forecasts, the most important recent news, and the core debates driving bullish vs. bearish analysis.
Why Fermi Inc stock is under pressure: the $150 million AICA termination
The immediate catalyst is an SEC filing that laid out the timeline behind the abrupt funding reversal.
In September 2025, Fermi said it entered a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) dated September 19 with an “investment grade-rated” prospective tenant to lease part of the Project Matador site, subject to a definitive lease. Then in November, Fermi and that tenant signed an Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AICA), dated November 3, under which the tenant agreed—subject to conditions—to advance up to $150 million toward construction costs. [3]
Key detail: Fermi said it had drawn no funds under the AICA. [4]
The filing also states:
- The exclusivity period in the LOI expired at midnight on December 9, 2025.
- Fermi began discussions with several other potential tenants for 2026 power delivery.
- On December 11, 2025, the tenant notified Fermi it was terminating the AICA.
- Despite the termination, Fermi said the parties continue to negotiate a lease agreement under the LOI framework. [5]
In plain English: the “prepayment for construction” part got ripped up, but Fermi says the “potential tenant” conversation isn’t necessarily dead.
Markets, being markets, priced it like a credibility event anyway.
The Amazon angle: Business Insider says “Amazon”; Reuters says Fermi denied it
Nothing spices up an already spicy stock like a hyperscaler cameo.
Business Insider reported that Amazon was the prospective tenant behind the AICA withdrawal and said CEO Toby Neugebauer described talks as still constructive, with a possible long-term deal worth tens of billions over 20 years. [6]
But Reuters followed with a sharply different headline: Fermi denied Business Insider’s report, including denying the comments attributed to Neugebauer, while Amazon did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment. [7]
Why this matters for FRMI stock: Fermi is effectively selling power certainty + site scale to the biggest buyers of AI compute infrastructure. Naming (or not naming) a first “anchor tenant” changes how investors model everything—from financing costs to construction sequencing to whether the campus becomes a real cash-generating REIT platform or a very expensive PowerPoint.
As of December 23, 2025, what’s confirmed in primary-source filings is simply that the tenant is unnamed, the AICA is terminated, and lease talks are ongoing. [8]
Project Matador: the bullish case is still about power, speed, and scale
Fermi’s pitch is unusually audacious even by AI-infrastructure standards: build a behind-the-meter “HyperGrid” campus designed to deliver up to 11 gigawatts of power for hyperscale AI/data center loads, tied to Texas Tech University land in the Amarillo area. [9]
What Fermi says it’s building
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, Fermi describes Project Matador as:
- ~5,200 acres under a 99-year lease with the Texas Tech University System (commenced in September 2025)
- Up to 11 GW planned total generation capacity
- Targeting first power delivery from the hybrid grid in 2026 (with a 1.1 GW target referenced in highlights) [10]
That same shareholder letter lists tangible site-work progress (roads, fencing, water lines, grading) and says those activities keep it on track to deliver first power by end of 2026. [11]
Recent “execution proof” headlines before the tenant shock
Just days before the AICA termination, Fermi announced a definitive Electric Service Agreement with Southwestern Public Service Company (an Xcel Energy subsidiary) to provide up to 200 MW of electrical capacity, starting with 86 MW in January 2026 and ramping over time (under tariffs and agreement terms). [12]
That matters because the market’s biggest question about AI infrastructure right now is brutally simple: where does the power come from, and when?
Fermi’s answer is a blended stack—utility power, gas-fired generation, and a longer-dated nuclear buildout. The nuclear timeline is inherently more speculative, but Fermi has pointed to regulatory milestones (including NRC acceptance for review of its COL application) as part of its credibility-building. [13]
Financial reality check: big cash, big losses, and “pre-revenue” DNA
Fermi is early-stage enough that traditional valuation metrics don’t behave nicely. In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, the company reported:
- Cash used in operating activities: $8.3 million year-to-date through Sept. 30, 2025
- Net loss: $353.2 million year-to-date (about $0.95 per share), driven heavily by non-cash items (including fair value adjustments, share-based comp, and a charitable contribution)
- Cash and cash equivalents: $183.0 million at Sept. 30, 2025 (including unrestricted and restricted cash)
- IPO net proceeds: approximately $731.4 million, settling Oct. 2, 2025, after underwriting discounts and offering expenses [14]
The IPO scale is central to the story. Fermi’s shareholder letter describes roughly $785 million in gross proceeds including the underwriters’ overallotment. [15] Meanwhile Reuters reported that the IPO raised $682.5 million selling 32.5 million shares at $21 (i.e., before counting the greenshoe), valuing Fermi around $12.46 billion at IPO. [16]
So the company is not “capital-starved” in the near term—but it is building something that, by its own framing, could ultimately cost tens of billions, meaning future project financing and tenant contracts are not optional side quests. They’re the main quest.
FRMI stock price and market cap on Dec. 23, 2025: what the tape is saying
On December 23, MarketBeat reported FRMI shares down about 4–5% intraday around $8.46, with volume well below average at the time of publishing—suggesting the day’s move wasn’t a massive liquidation event so much as continued weak sentiment after prior volatility. [17]
StockAnalysis shows FRMI trading around $8.35 on Dec. 23 and estimates a market cap around $5.13 billion, noting the market cap has fallen substantially since the IPO. [18]
That’s the macro message of December in one sentence: the market is repricing execution risk—not just the loss of a single funding mechanism.
Today’s forecasts and analyst targets: “huge upside” on paper, but one big caveat
Here’s the weird part that makes investors squint like they’re reading a cursed scroll:
Even after the collapse, many aggregator snapshots still show Wall Street targets far above the current share price.
- MarketBeat (Dec. 23) summarized a consensus “Buy” stance and cited a consensus target price around the low $30s. [19]
- StockAnalysis similarly shows a “Strong Buy” consensus and a 12‑month target around $30.86 (numbers vary by vendor and update timing). [20]
The caveat: a large portion of those targets were initiated when FRMI was trading much higher and before the tenant funding agreement termination. And at least one major analyst has already cut.
Evercore ISI cut its price target after the AICA termination
Investing.com reported that Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $20 from $37 while maintaining an Outperform rating, explicitly citing the termination of the construction funding agreement. [21]
That single data point is important because it shows how “the model” changes when an anchor tenant’s commitment looks shakier—even if the company says lease talks continue.
Why targets can lag reality in a story stock
Analyst targets are not magic; they’re narratives turned into spreadsheets. With FRMI, the story hinges on a few high-impact uncertainties:
- How quickly a definitive lease (and who the tenant is) becomes public
- Whether Project Matador can hit “first power” in 2026 on time and on budget
- What financing terms look like after a headline credibility hit
- How much dilution or additional debt is required to bridge construction phases
When those inputs wobble, targets can swing violently—especially for a company that, by design, is still building the revenue engine.
The “legal investigation” headlines on Dec. 23: what they are (and what they aren’t)
On December 23, at least one major plaintiffs’ law firm announced it is investigating Fermi on behalf of investors after the sharp stock decline that followed the AICA termination disclosure. [22]
These releases are common after big single-day drops. They do not establish wrongdoing by themselves; they are a sign of heightened legal and reputational risk that can add friction to sentiment and sometimes to financing discussions—especially if litigation becomes more than exploratory.
What long-form analysis is really debating: a credibility gap vs. a category tailwind
The Fermi bull case and bear case are basically arguing about the same reality from opposite ends of the telescope.
Bull thesis (why some investors still care)
- AI data center demand is power-constrained, and behind-the-meter solutions can be enormously valuable. [23]
- Fermi has raised significant capital, claims tangible construction progress, and is stacking partnerships and equipment commitments to move fast. [24]
- If a major tenant signs a definitive lease and early power delivery hits in 2026, December’s chaos could look (in hindsight) like an overreaction.
Bear thesis (why the stock is getting punished)
- The terminated AICA, even with “no funds drawn,” undermines confidence in the “tenant pipeline” and in how advanced negotiations really are. [25]
- Project Matador is so large that execution mistakes can’t be patched with optimistic press releases; they show up as schedule slips, financing costs, and dilution.
- The Amazon rumor/denial episode highlights an information vacuum: investors can’t reliably price what they can’t verify. [26]
In other words, FRMI is trading like a referendum on management credibility, not just a discounted cash flow.
What to watch next for Fermi Inc (FRMI) stock
As of December 23, 2025, these are the catalysts most likely to move the stock meaningfully:
- A definitive lease announcement (especially if it names an anchor tenant) or confirmation that negotiations have ended.
- Updated financing plans for Phase One construction—particularly if tied to non-recourse project finance rather than corporate-level dilution.
- Permitting and infrastructure milestones (e.g., progress on gas supply, utility interconnects, and environmental permits), which act as third-party validation that construction sequencing is real.
- Any follow-on analyst revisions after the Evercore target cut—because early coverage initiated in October may be re-underwritten under the new risk regime. [27]
- Litigation developments, if they move beyond “investigation announced” into filed complaints or material disclosures.
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025
Fermi Inc stock (FRMI) is no longer trading like a clean “AI infrastructure winner” story. It’s trading like what it is: a newly public, capital-intensive builder of a gigantic energy-and-data campus—one that can become strategically important if execution holds, but one that will be punished hard whenever counterparties blink.
On December 23, the market is still digesting the AICA termination, the disputed Amazon narrative, and what those say about tenant certainty. The forecasts you’ll see today still show large upside from consensus targets—but at least one major firm has already moved its goalposts lower, and the next moves likely depend on whether Fermi can replace ambiguity with signed contracts and visible progress. [28]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.businessinsider.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. investor.fermiamerica.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.businessinsider.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.sec.gov
