Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) ended Tuesday, December 23, 2025, lower, then barely moved in extended trading — a familiar pattern this month as investors weigh Oracle’s fast-growing AI cloud opportunity against the financing, accounting, and execution questions that have followed the stock since its sharp December pullback.
Oracle stock after the bell: where ORCL closed and how it’s trading tonight
Oracle shares finished the regular session around $195.14, down about 1.63% on the day. The stock traded between $192.19 (low) and $197.20 (high), with volume around 15.14 million shares, according to real-time historical pricing data. [1]
In after-hours trading, ORCL was around $195.14 at roughly 4:30 p.m. ET, essentially flat versus the close and moving within a tight range immediately after the bell. [2]
That muted after-hours tape matters because Wednesday’s session is likely to be unusually thin: U.S. stock markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 24, ahead of the Christmas holiday. [3]
The context investors are still trading: Oracle’s AI upside vs. capital intensity
Even on a quiet headline day, Oracle is not trading like a “slow-and-steady enterprise software” stock right now. The market is still digesting how big Oracle’s AI-related opportunity could be — and how expensive it may be to deliver.
On December 10, 2025, Oracle reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results that underscored why bulls keep coming back:
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $523 billion, up 438% year over year
- Total revenue: $16.1 billion, up 14%
- Cloud revenue (IaaS + SaaS): $8.0 billion, up 34%
- Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS): $4.1 billion, up 68%
Oracle also noted EPS benefited from a $2.7 billion pre-tax gain related to the sale of Oracle’s interest in Ampere. [4]
But the same earnings cycle amplified the bear case: massive spending expectations and debate over how quickly AI infrastructure converts into durable free cash flow.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Oracle said fiscal 2026 spending was expected to be $15 billion higher than its September estimates, contributing to a sharp selloff and a wave of lowered price targets from multiple brokerages. [5]
That push-pull is still the backdrop behind today’s trade.
The biggest ORCL-linked headlines and analysis circulating today (Dec. 23)
While Oracle itself didn’t drop a new earnings report today, several market-wide stories and Oracle-adjacent headlines are shaping sentiment going into tomorrow.
1) “Depreciation games” in big tech: why Oracle got name-checked today
A Reuters markets column published today flagged rising Wall Street attention on depreciation schedules at large tech firms — a technical accounting topic that can become controversial when investors worry reported profitability is “too flattering.”
The column notes investor Michael Burry has pointed to Oracle among big tech names under scrutiny, and it explains the key nuance: changing depreciation assumptions can influence reported earnings, but doesn’t change cash flow — meaning the financial optics can move faster than the underlying economics. [6]
For Oracle shareholders, the practical takeaway is not that “something is wrong,” but that anything that re-opens debates about tech profitability quality can affect ORCL’s multiple — especially while the market is already hypersensitive to AI capex and financing narratives.
2) AI debt becomes a bigger part of the story — with Oracle often treated as a bellwether
Another theme today: AI infrastructure borrowing and what it implies for risk appetite in 2026.
The Financial Times reported that the U.S. investment-grade bond market has been pushed close to record issuance levels in 2025, with AI-related borrowing a major driver and Oracle among the companies raising funds for data center and AI infrastructure build-outs. The report also noted heightened hedging activity and concerns around credit risk in parts of the AI trade. [7]
Reuters has similarly described AI-driven tech borrowing as a structural shift and noted that credit markets have shown caution — including rising CDS attention for firms such as Oracle — as spending ramps faster than near-term earnings. [8]
This “AI debt” narrative doesn’t need to be Oracle-specific to move ORCL: when investors de-risk the AI infrastructure theme broadly, Oracle can move with it.
3) Larry Ellison headline risk: personal guarantee tied to a separate megadeal
A separate headline that has been circulating: Reuters reported that Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in to personally guarantee $40.4 billion to support Paramount Skydance’s effort to acquire Warner Bros Discovery, as disclosed in a filing. [9]
This is not an Oracle corporate action, and it doesn’t directly change Oracle’s business fundamentals. But because Ellison remains closely associated with Oracle in the public markets, such headlines can create short-term “association volatility” — especially during holiday-thinned sessions.
4) Customer experience controversy: Oracle’s “AI-enhanced” support portal draws criticism today
The Register published a report today saying Oracle’s new AI-powered support portal has frustrated some users and support professionals, citing difficulty finding older tickets, patch information, and certain documents. The article also notes Oracle had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication. [10]
Oracle’s own support team blog posts this month have promoted the “enhanced My Oracle Support” experience and described AI-powered features and UI updates. [11]
Why this matters for investors: it’s not typically a near-term revenue catalyst, but it speaks to a broader question the market is asking in 2025—2026: Does adding “AI” improve real customer outcomes, or just add complexity and cost? In a tape that’s already nervous about AI ROI, even “small” operational stories can influence sentiment.
Forecasts: what analysts are implying (and why the range is so wide)
Oracle’s valuation debate has become unusually polarized — and that shows up in published target ranges.
MarketWatch’s compiled analyst estimates (as of this morning) showed a high target around $400, a median target around $295, and a low target around $175 for ORCL. [12]
That spread is not just noise. It reflects two competing models:
- The bull model: OCI keeps scaling fast, large AI contracts convert into durable revenue, and Oracle’s backlog becomes a multi-year growth engine. [13]
- The bear model: cash flow timing lags, financing costs rise, and the market re-prices the stock if investors lose patience with long-dated AI monetization (especially if debt concerns dominate headlines). [14]
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025)
Tomorrow’s setup is unusual, and it matters for anyone following ORCL into the open.
1) Trading hours: Christmas Eve is an early close
- NYSE and Nasdaq close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025
- Markets are closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25)
- Regular trading resumes Friday, Dec. 26 [15]
Bond market participants are also watching the clock: SIFMA’s holiday schedule points to an early close at 2:00 p.m. ET for bond markets on Dec. 24. [16]
Reuters also reported that major U.S. exchanges are sticking to their schedules despite federal office closures directed by President Donald Trump, reinforcing that the market is open (just shortened on the 24th). [17]
Why it matters for ORCL: early-close sessions often see lighter liquidity, wider bid-ask spreads, and sharper moves on small headlines—especially in high-attention names like Oracle.
2) The key U.S. data point before the bell: jobless claims
Market calendars show initial jobless claims are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24. [18]
Even though jobless claims aren’t an “Oracle-only” catalyst, rate expectations and risk appetite have been a major driver of mega-cap tech sentiment. Reuters reported today that markets have been trading actively off shifting expectations for Fed cuts in 2026 as fresh economic data arrives. [19]
3) What headlines could move ORCL most in a thin session
Into tomorrow’s open, Oracle traders tend to react most to:
- AI infrastructure financing updates (debt, credit-market tone, funding partners, or data-center buildout timelines) [20]
- Any incremental developments tied to OpenAI-related infrastructure (even rumors can move the stock quickly after the volatility earlier this month) [21]
- TikTok-related deal follow-through as the story continues to ripple through Oracle’s OCI narrative (Oracle is part of the investor consortium and is positioned as a data-security and infrastructure partner) [22]
- “Accounting optics” debates (like today’s depreciation-schedule chatter), because they can influence how investors think about earnings quality in capex-heavy tech names [23]
Price levels investors are watching going into Dec. 24
Without turning this into a trading “call,” it’s helpful to understand the reference points the market has been using:
- Near-term resistance zone: roughly the $198 area, where ORCL closed Monday before fading Tuesday. [24]
- Immediate downside reference: today’s $192–$193 intraday low zone. [25]
- Bigger “December stress-test” area: the high-$170s to around $180, where the stock traded last week during the selloff. [26]
In short: ORCL doesn’t need a huge headline to move — it just needs a directional push in the AI infrastructure narrative when liquidity is thin.
Bottom line: tonight’s ORCL setup is about narrative risk, not a single catalyst
Oracle ended Dec. 23 near $195 and was essentially unchanged after hours, but the “real story” going into tomorrow is the combination of:
- a shortened Christmas Eve session,
- renewed focus on AI capex and borrowing,
- broader scrutiny of big-tech financial optics,
- and ongoing debate over how quickly Oracle’s AI cloud backlog becomes cash flow.
If you’re watching ORCL into the open on Dec. 24, the most practical mindset is simple: expect lower liquidity, faster reactions to headlines, and a market that’s still deciding whether Oracle is an AI infrastructure winner—or the cautionary tale for the AI buildout’s financing costs. [27]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. public.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. investor.oracle.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.ft.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.theregister.com, 11. blogs.oracle.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. investor.oracle.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.nyse.com, 16. www.sifma.org, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. apnews.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.reuters.com
