PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) finished Tuesday’s session (December 23, 2025) modestly lower even as the broader market pushed to fresh highs. With Christmas Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 24) set to be a shortened U.S. trading day, investors heading into tomorrow’s open are balancing three forces: holiday-thin liquidity, new regulatory headlines, and a still-split Wall Street narrative about whether PayPal is a value turnaround—or a structurally challenged payments incumbent.
Below is what matters most after the bell on Dec. 23 and what to keep on your radar before the market opens Dec. 24.
PayPal stock after-hours: where PYPL closed and where it traded late
PYPL closed Tuesday at $59.41, down 0.75%, after trading between $58.94 and $60.07. Volume was roughly 12.15 million shares, in line with the stock’s recent activity. [1]
In after-hours trading, PayPal shares were essentially flat—around $59.40 on the late update shown by Investing.com. [2]
Why this matters into Wednesday: When after-hours action is muted, the next move is more likely to be driven by overnight headlines, premarket macro data, and market-wide positioning, not an obvious PYPL-specific catalyst that hit right at 4:00 p.m. ET.
The biggest PayPal headline this week is regulatory—$6 million Hawaii settlement
One of the most material “new” developments circulating into Tuesday evening is a consumer-protection settlement in Hawaii.
Hawaii’s Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Office of Consumer Protection announced a $6 million settlement with PayPal, Inc. and PayPal Holdings, Inc. resolving a lawsuit originally filed in December 2022. In the state’s description, the case alleged “unfair and deceptive acts or practices” tied to how PayPal and Venmo were marketed—specifically claims involving Venmo “Purchase Protection,” privacy protections for sensitive financial data, consistent and easy access to funds, and safety from scams and fraud. PayPal denied the claims but agreed to pay the $6 million to resolve the matter. [3]
How investors typically read this kind of settlement
From a purely financial standpoint, $6 million is not large relative to PayPal’s scale. The more important angle is the signal: state-level consumer protection actions tend to reinforce investor focus on trust, product disclosures, dispute resolution, and fraud/scam controls—areas that can become brand-sensitive (and margin-sensitive) over time.
Put differently: the immediate cash cost is small; the reputational and compliance spotlight is what traders watch, especially when a stock is already trying to rebuild confidence.
Market backdrop on Dec. 23: risk-on tape, record S&P 500, and holiday-light volume
PayPal’s dip came on a day when U.S. equities broadly strengthened.
- The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,909.79 on Tuesday, helped by big tech leadership and a generally upbeat reaction to economic data. [4]
- Reuters noted markets were buoyed by data that supported expectations for future rate cuts, while also pointing out that trading volumes were light ahead of Christmas. [5]
- A key macro driver was revised U.S. GDP data: the BEA reported Q3 2025 real GDP growth at 4.3% (annual rate). [6]
- At the same time, consumer confidence deteriorated in December, highlighting ongoing anxiety about jobs and incomes. [7]
Why PYPL cares: PayPal sits at the intersection of consumer spending and merchant checkout conversion. Strong growth data can support the “payments tailwind” argument, while weakening confidence can revive concerns about discretionary spend slowing and online checkout growth decelerating.
Today’s PayPal debate in one sentence: cheap valuation vs. checkout/competition concerns
PayPal’s current story is less about one day’s price move and more about the market trying to answer a durable question:
Is PayPal a cash-generative platform priced for bad news—or a business whose core checkout economics are being steadily competed away?
Bull case getting attention today: “re-rating” potential at low multiples
Two widely circulated takes on Dec. 23 leaned bullish:
- A Motley Fool analysis published late Tuesday argued that PayPal’s fundamentals (scale, profitability, network effects) look healthier than the stock’s multi-year drawdown suggests, and highlighted the stock’s depressed valuation relative to its past. [8]
- A Seeking Alpha note published Tuesday upgraded PayPal to Strong Buy, pointing to asymmetric risk/reward at current pricing and framing the stock as a candidate for a multiple “re-rating” if execution stabilizes. [9]
Important context: These are opinion/analysis pieces—not company guidance. But they help explain why PayPal often finds buyers in the high-$50s range even after negative headlines.
Bear case still hanging over the stock: branded checkout momentum and execution risk
The opposite view has been reinforced through December via multiple downgrades and cautious commentary around PayPal’s core branded checkout growth:
- Morgan Stanley downgraded PayPal to Underweight and cut its price target to $51 (from $74), citing concerns such as market share loss, take-rate degradation, Venmo monetization difficulties, and the idea that improvements to branded checkout will be “slow and complex.” [10]
- BofA downgraded PayPal to Neutral with a $68 target, arguing the branded checkout growth re-acceleration was taking longer than expected. [11]
- Baird moved to Neutral with a $66 target, pointing to “uneven” volumes and another investment cycle that could keep the stock range-bound until clearer share gains show up. [12]
- JPMorgan also shifted to a more cautious stance earlier this month, warning the turnaround is taking longer than expected under CEO Alex Chriss. [13]
- In early December, Barron’s highlighted PayPal CFO Jamie Miller warning that branded checkout growth could slow in Q4 versus Q3, even as the company reiterated broader guidance and emphasized strength in Venmo/BNPL and other areas. [14]
Net effect for tomorrow: The stock is trading in a market that’s generally upbeat, but PayPal-specific sentiment is still fragile—meaning any incremental headline can have an outsized impact in a thin holiday session.
Analyst forecasts: where price targets cluster—and why the range is so wide
Consensus-style compilations show that Wall Street’s targets remain well above the current price, but the spread is notable:
- MarketBeat lists an average target around the high-$70s (with a stated range spanning the mid-$50s to low $100s). [15]
- StockAnalysis shows a similar picture—consensus “Hold” with an average target near $79 and a wide low-to-high range. [16]
- FINVIZ displays a target price around $76.78 alongside the recent cluster of December downgrades. [17]
What that dispersion really signals
A wide target range usually means analysts disagree on two key modeling inputs:
- How quickly branded checkout improves (product, conversion, and merchant adoption)
- Whether PayPal can protect take rates and monetize Venmo/other services without sacrificing volume
That disagreement is also why PayPal can look “obviously undervalued” to one analyst and “value trap” to another—both can be using defensible assumptions.
One more risk investors shouldn’t ignore: fraud/scam narratives resurface easily
Even when not directly tied to PayPal’s earnings, trust-and-safety issues can influence brand perception.
A recent cybersecurity report described scammers exploiting PayPal’s legitimate subscription-email mechanics to send convincing phishing-style messages, with PayPal saying it was working on mitigation and urging customer caution. [18]
Paired with the Hawaii settlement’s focus on consumer protections, this theme is worth watching because it can shape:
- customer experience and complaint volumes
- dispute handling costs
- regulatory scrutiny intensity
What to know before the market opens Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025
1) It’s a shortened session
The NYSE holiday calendar shows markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. That often means thinner liquidity and faster price swings on smaller orders. [19]
2) The key scheduled macro release: jobless claims
MarketWatch’s economic calendar lists initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday (Dec. 24). [20]
Why it matters for PYPL: Rate expectations and consumer-spending sensitivity are still big drivers for payments stocks. A surprise in claims can move Treasury yields, which can quickly spill into fintech multiples.
3) Watch the headline tape for follow-through on the Hawaii settlement
The Hawaii settlement announcement is already public, but in markets, the second and third-day stories often come from:
- additional states’ comments or copycat claims
- analyst notes referencing the settlement
- investor Q&A around compliance or consumer disclosures
The official state release is explicit about what it says the marketing implied (protection, privacy, access, safety), making it the kind of document analysts may cite in future risk sections. [21]
4) PayPal remains “news-reactive” after a month of downgrades
December’s downgrades mean traders are primed to react to any new data point on:
- branded checkout volume growth
- Venmo monetization traction
- take-rate / pricing
- merchant integration progress
Morgan Stanley’s downgrade note (and similar actions from other firms) has kept those issues front and center. [22]
Bottom line for PYPL heading into Dec. 24
PayPal ended Dec. 23 near $59 with after-hours trading flat, leaving the stock set up for a macro + headlines open rather than a clear earnings-driven move. [23]
Into Wednesday’s open, the most important near-term factors are:
- Holiday session dynamics (early close, thin liquidity) [24]
- 8:30 a.m. ET jobless claims [25]
- Regulatory optics from the Hawaii $6M settlement and related consumer-protection themes [26]
- The ongoing tug-of-war between “cheap valuation/re-rating” analysis and “checkout slowdown/competition” skepticism [27]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. governor.hawaii.gov, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.bea.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fool.com, 9. seekingalpha.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. www.techradar.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. governor.hawaii.gov, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. governor.hawaii.gov, 27. www.fool.com
