CSL Limited shares ended 24 December 2025 on a sour note, closing at A$171.48 after sliding 2.38% on the session (open A$175.60, high A$175.76, low A$171.48). [1]
That finish matters for two reasons. First, it keeps CSL hovering close to its 52‑week low (A$168.00) after a bruising year for one of Australia’s most widely held “quality compounder” names. [2] Second, it lands amid a wider re‑rating story investors have been living through since August: CSL is no longer being priced like a smooth, predictable growth machine—markets are treating it like a business in the middle of a complicated reset.
Below is what’s current as of 24.12.2025, combining the latest market data, company disclosures, major recent headlines, and the most commonly cited analyst target ranges.
CSL share price today: the key numbers investors are watching
Close (24 Dec 2025): A$171.48
Day move: -2.38%
52‑week range: A$168.00 to A$290.32
1‑year move: about -39% (depending on data source and cut-off time) [3]
CSL’s market value is still enormous—around A$85.5 billion—but the stock’s gravitational pull on Australian portfolios cuts both ways: big ownership means big attention, and big attention means sentiment shifts get amplified. [4]
The “why” behind CSL’s 2025 volatility: a reset year, not a single headline
If you want the cleanest explanation for CSL’s share-price whiplash in 2025, it’s this: investors had to re-price certainty.
A useful recap comes from Livewire’s year-end review: CSL’s August FY25 result became a major turning point, and the October AGM added a second punch. Livewire notes the stock fell sharply after August (amid concerns over guidance, job cuts, and the proposed demerger), and then dropped again after October messaging around FY26. [5]
That aligns with what Reuters reported around the AGM: CSL cut its outlook and delayed the planned separation of its vaccine arm due to a steeper-than-expected drop in US influenza vaccination rates. [6]
In other words: the market hasn’t been trading CSL purely on “today’s plasma volumes” or “this quarter’s costs.” It’s been trading the credibility of the medium-term story.
Seqirus spin-off delayed and FY26 outlook cut: the headline that still hangs over the stock
One of the biggest ongoing overhangs into year-end 2025 is the uncertainty around CSL Seqirus (vaccines).
At CSL’s annual meeting coverage, Reuters reported CSL delayed the planned spin-off of Seqirus (previously targeted for completion by June 2026) and downgraded its FY26 growth outlooks, citing “heightened volatility” in the US influenza vaccine market and a larger-than-expected decline in vaccination rates. [7]
Reuters also reported the specific guidance changes communicated at that time:
- FY26 revenue growth: cut to 2%–3% (from 4%–5%)
- FY26 NPATA growth: cut to 4%–7% (from 7%–10%, constant currency basis) [8]
For investors, the critical point is not just “guidance down.” It’s that vaccines introduced a harder-to-model variable—policy and behaviour—into a group that many investors historically treated as a comparatively stable healthcare compounder.
Capital returns: CSL’s A$750 million buyback is real money (and it’s moving)
While strategy has been debated, CSL has continued to execute on shareholder returns through its on-market buyback.
In its ASX buyback disclosure dated 18 December 2025, CSL confirmed it intends to buy back up to A$750 million of ordinary shares under the on-market buyback program (with the program dates showing a proposed start of 4 September 2025 and end date of 30 June 2026). [9]
The same disclosure provides a concrete progress snapshot:
- Total shares bought back before the prior day:2,955,365
- Shares bought back on the prior day:65,217
- Total consideration paid before the prior day:A$577.05 million
- Consideration paid on the prior day:A$11.37 million [10]
Buybacks don’t “fix” guidance risk, but they do two practical things investors care about:
- They can offset dilution and support per-share metrics.
- They signal management’s willingness to lean into valuation—especially when sentiment is ugly.
Plasma remains the core: CSL’s US$1.5 billion US expansion plan
If Seqirus is the question mark, CSL Behring (plasma-derived therapies) remains the center of gravity.
Reuters reported in November that CSL plans to invest US$1.5 billion in the United States over five years to expand manufacturing of plasma-derived therapies, adding that CSL has invested over US$3 billion into its US operations since 2018. Reuters also noted Behring contributed more than 70% of group revenue in fiscal 2025. [11]
This is an underappreciated detail about CSL’s current posture: while investors argue about a demerger timeline and vaccine uncertainty, CSL is also making long-duration bets to strengthen supply chain and production capacity in the business line that historically generated the group’s premium valuation.
The R&D pivot: fewer internal resources, more external partnerships
Another important thread—often overlooked because it doesn’t immediately map to next quarter’s earnings—is CSL’s changing approach to R&D.
Reuters reported in July that CSL said it planned to trim its R&D division across six global locations and increasingly rely on external partnerships, after media reports suggested significant reductions; CSL said it was too early to comment on specific numbers, but confirmed the strategic shift toward a different internal/external mix. [12]
A practical way to interpret this: CSL is trying to keep innovation output while improving efficiency—an approach that can work well, but only if partnership selection and execution are sharp. (Biotech history is littered with “great on paper” externalisation plans that failed on integration.)
Pipeline & partnerships: CSL’s VarmX option deal and the “FXa reversal” opportunity
CSL has also been building its pipeline through targeted deals.
In an ASX announcement dated 16 September 2025, CSL said it entered an agreement with Dutch biotech VarmX to develop VMX‑C001, described as a potentially first-in-class recombinant Factor X protein aimed at restoring coagulation in patients taking Factor Xa inhibitors who experience severe bleeding or need urgent surgery. CSL said the deal includes an upfront payment of US$117 million for an exclusive option to acquire VarmX, plus potential milestone payments up to US$388 million through launch, with a commercial launch anticipated in 2029. [13]
For investors, this kind of deal does two things:
- It reinforces CSL’s push into specialty/hematology adjacency where it has credibility.
- It demonstrates the “external partnerships” strategy in action (and investors will judge it by outcomes, not headlines).
Analyst forecasts on 24.12.2025: what the market expects (and what it’s arguing about)
Even after a rough year, analyst consensus is not uniformly bearish—though targets have been volatile.
As of late December, Investing.com shows:
- Consensus rating: “Buy” (based on 16 analysts; 12 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell)
- Average 12‑month price target:~A$235.54
- High / low target range:~A$290.20 / ~A$187.31 [14]
TradingView presents a similar target band (with a slightly different high), listing a max estimate of A$274.26 and a min estimate of A$188.31. [15]
Why the wide target range?
Because the debate is less about “does CSL have good assets?” and more about:
- How quickly plasma margins normalise as collection and mix evolve
- How Seqirus performs in a soft vaccination environment
- Whether/when the demerger is value-accretive (and what “the right time” means) [16]
One widely cited medium-term bull case: margin recovery in plasma
A representative example of the medium-term “recovery” framework comes from NABtrade’s analysis.
NABtrade forecasts plasma gross margins could recover 600 basis points to 57% by fiscal 2028, attributing most of the uplift to collection initiatives and the remainder to mix shift toward higher-margin products. NABtrade also cites a 10‑year revenue CAGR of ~6%, driven heavily by immunoglobulin demand growth, and describes the plasma market as an oligopoly among a small number of major global players. [17]
That’s the optimistic script: if plasma improves steadily and vaccines stabilise, the 2025 drawdown starts to look like a valuation event rather than a permanent impairment.
What to watch next: catalysts into early 2026
Here’s what could move CSL meaningfully from here, based on disclosed timelines and market structure:
- Buyback pace and pricing discipline — daily disclosures show continuing activity and provide a window into capital allocation behaviour. [18]
- Any update on Seqirus separation timing — the delay was explicitly tied to market conditions; investors will be watching for clearer triggers. [19]
- Operational follow-through on the US expansion plan — the US$1.5b investment is a long game, but execution updates can shift sentiment. [20]
- Earnings season — TradingView lists CSL’s next earnings report date as 10 February 2026. [21]
- Further signals on R&D restructuring and partnership productivity — investors will want evidence the pivot improves efficiency without starving the pipeline. [22]
Bottom line on CSL stock as of 24 December 2025
CSL ends 24 December 2025 lower at A$171.48, keeping the stock near its lows after a year defined by guidance resets, a delayed Seqirus demerger, and ongoing debate over how durable the medium-term growth engine is. [23]
But the story isn’t “CSL is broken.” It’s “CSL is being repriced” while it simultaneously:
- runs a substantial A$750m buyback, [24]
- invests aggressively in US plasma capacity, [25]
- reshapes R&D toward external partnerships, [26]
- and adds pipeline options like the VarmX deal. [27]
For market watchers, CSL is now a litmus test for something bigger than one company: whether the ASX’s former “set-and-forget” healthcare titan can rebuild confidence in its next chapter—without the market’s old habit of paying upfront for certainty.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.livewiremarkets.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. investors.csl.com, 10. investors.csl.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. investors.csl.com, 14. au.investing.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.nabtrade.com.au, 18. investors.csl.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. investors.csl.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. investors.csl.com
