December 24, 2025 — Rio Tinto plc stock is ending 2025 with a familiar rhythm: iron ore still pays most of the bills, but copper is increasingly writing the headlines.
On a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session, Rio Tinto shares were broadly steady after pushing to fresh highs earlier this week, helped by a sharp rally in metals—especially copper, which has surged through the psychological (and very real) $12,000-per-tonne threshold. [1]
For investors, the near-term story is less about a single company update and more about a powerful mix of macro drivers (record metals, a weaker dollar narrative, tariff uncertainty) colliding with Rio’s own strategic pivot toward “more copper, less complexity” under CEO Simon Trott.
Rio Tinto stock price on Dec. 24, 2025: where shares stand
Rio Tinto trades across multiple major markets, so “Rio Tinto stock” can mean slightly different things depending on where you’re looking:
- London (RIO.L): Investing.com data shows Rio Tinto closing around 5,995p on Dec. 24, essentially flat on the day (-0.03%). The same dataset shows a strong run into the holiday period, including Dec. 23 at 5,997p (+1.11%) and a December high mark at 6,005p. [2]
- New York ADR (NYSE: RIO): As of Dec. 24, the ADR traded around $80.97, with a 52-week range of $51.67 to $81.17, putting the stock right near the top end of its annual channel. [3]
Holiday conditions matter here. UK markets were operating on a half-day schedule with muted liquidity—exactly the kind of tape where price moves can look “cleaner” than they really are. [4]
One more detail worth noting: while there was plenty of market movement, there wasn’t a flood of fresh company filings in late December. The latest items visible on the London RNS feed cluster earlier in the month, including strategy- and lithium-related updates around Dec. 4–8. [5]
The big driver on Dec. 24: copper breaks records (and miners get the halo effect)
Copper is doing what copper does when markets get anxious about supply: it goes vertical.
Multiple outlets reported copper pushing above $12,000 per tonne, driven by a cocktail of tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and a broader “metals are money” trade that also sent precious metals to record territory. [6]
That matters for Rio Tinto stock for one simple reason: Rio wants the market to value it more like a copper growth story, not just an iron ore cash machine.
And the timing is convenient—because Rio has been explicitly telling investors that copper is the next decade’s prize.
Rio Tinto’s copper pivot: Oyu Tolgoi, higher guidance, and a clearer 2026 setup
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that CEO Simon Trott laid out a sharpened strategy that includes:
- Raising Rio’s 2025 copper production forecast to 860,000–875,000 tonnes (consolidated basis), up from the previous 780,000–850,000 range
- Setting a 2026 copper production expectation of 800,000–870,000 tonnes
- Highlighting continued ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, including a view that output there could lift materially again into 2026 [7]
In the same Reuters report, Rio reiterated a long-term ambition: about 1 million tonnes of copper annually by 2030, reflecting how central the metal has become to Rio’s investment pitch as electrification, grid buildouts, and data-center expansion pull on copper demand. [8]
In other words: copper isn’t just a cyclical tailwind today. Rio is trying to bake it into the company’s identity.
“Stronger, sharper, simpler”: Trott’s plan to cut costs, sell assets, and unlock capital returns
Copper might be the spark, but the market also cares about what Rio does with the cash.
Reuters’ Dec. 4 coverage of Rio’s strategy day set out a plan that aims to make the company leaner and more focused:
- $5 billion to $10 billion in value targeted through divestments and productivity improvements
- About $650 million in annualised productivity gains/cost savings identified early in the program
- A goal to cut unit costs by ~4% from 2024 to 2030
- A willingness to “test the market” for non-core assets (including mention of titanium and borates) [9]
There’s also a governance/capital-return subplot. Reuters noted Rio is working with major shareholder Chinalco on constraints that can affect flexibility around buybacks and strategic moves. [10]
For stock investors, this is the heart of the “quality rerating” story: higher copper exposure plus fewer distractions plus cleaner capital allocation.
What markets said this week: miners outperform as copper pops
The copper move didn’t just lift Rio in isolation—it pulled the whole mining complex higher.
Reuters reported that on Dec. 23, London’s FTSE 100 was supported by miners as copper hit record levels; Rio Tinto (RIO.L) rose about 1.1% in that session. [11]
Australia saw a similar dynamic on Dec. 24: even as the ASX 200 fell, local reporting noted that big miners including Rio Tinto were modestly higher thanks to the commodity surge. [12]
This is a classic late-cycle tape: indexes may wobble, but the commodity-linked names can trade like a separate universe when the underlying metals are making headlines.
Rio Tinto stock forecast: what analysts are projecting right now
Forecasts depend heavily on which market listing, which analyst set, and which methodology you’re using. But across the major consensus trackers, the tone on Rio Tinto stock in late December looks more “balanced” than “euphoric.”
London listing (RIO.L): consensus points slightly below the market
MarketBeat’s consensus for Rio Tinto Group (LON: RIO) shows:
- Average 12-month price target: 5,570p
- High: 6,950p
- Low: 4,900p
- With the stock near ~5,997p, that implies modest downside versus the current level. [13]
NYSE ADR (RIO): targets cluster around the low $80s
For the U.S.-listed ADR:
- MarketBeat shows an average price target around $79 from its tracked analyst set, near the current trading level. [14]
- Investing.com’s ADR page lists an average 12‑month target around $80.33, with a high estimate of $101 and a low of $68, and an overall “Buy” leaning in its displayed breakdown. [15]
- TipRanks shows a Moderate Buy consensus and a higher average target (its snapshot shows $88.13), but based on a smaller visible sample in that view. [16]
How to read this: the market appears to be pricing Rio as “fairly valued” unless copper remains structurally tight, iron ore stays resilient, and Trott’s simplification plan delivers cleaner margins and more consistent shareholder returns.
A note on algorithmic forecasts
Some technical/algorithmic forecasting sites are more bullish. For example, CoinCodex’s model update dated Dec. 24 projects a move toward the high $80s into early 2026. These model-based projections can be useful for sentiment/technical framing, but they are not the same thing as sell-side analyst research. [17]
Dividends and upcoming catalysts: what to watch after the holidays
Rio is widely held as an income stock, and dividend expectations often act like a gravity field around the share price.
Investing.com’s ADR snapshot shows a dividend yield around the mid‑4% range at current prices (yields move with both payouts and price). [18]
The next major scheduled catalyst is Rio’s 2025 Annual Results, listed on the company’s financial calendar for Thursday, February 19, 2026 (London/Sydney). [19]
Between now and then, the “what can change the narrative quickly” list is short but powerful:
- Copper staying above key levels (or reversing sharply)
- Signals on Chinese industrial demand and iron ore pricing
- Any concrete divestment/buyback actions following the strategy-day framework
- Updates on production guidance delivery, particularly at Oyu Tolgoi [20]
Key risks for Rio Tinto stock in 2026
Even in a bullish metals tape, Rio Tinto is not a one-variable company. The main risks investors tend to price in include:
- Iron ore dependency: Rio still earns most of its profits from iron ore. If steel demand weakens (especially in China), iron ore can overwhelm copper optimism.
- Copper volatility and geopolitics: Record prices often invite policy responses—tariff headlines and supply-chain politics can cut both ways. [21]
- Execution risk on “simpler” Rio: Divestments, cost programs, and portfolio reshaping can create one-off charges, timing gaps, and internal disruption—even when they’re strategically sound. [22]
- Legal and jurisdictional complexity: Mining is global, and disputes can pop up far from operating centers. Reuters recently reported a Russian court ruling in favor of Rusal in a large lawsuit involving Rio Tinto connected to a joint alumina refinery situation. [23]
Bottom line: Rio Tinto stock rides into 2026 on copper momentum—and a “show me” strategy
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Rio Tinto stock is trading near yearly highs, and the catalyst is easy to name: a historic surge in copper prices that is lifting miners globally. [24]
But the more durable question for 2026 is whether Rio can convert this moment into a sustained rerating:
- Deliver the copper growth it’s guided
- Simplify the portfolio without value leakage
- Translate productivity gains into higher free cash flow
- And keep capital returns credible even through commodity cycles [25]
That’s the setup heading into February’s results—and it’s why Rio Tinto remains one of the most closely watched large-cap mining stocks going into the new year.
References
1. www.ft.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. uk.investing.com, 5. www.lse.co.uk, 6. www.ft.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.news.com.au, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. coincodex.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.riotinto.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ft.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.ft.com, 25. www.reuters.com
