Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is closing out the Christmas Eve session with investors focused on two themes that have repeatedly moved the stock in late 2025: regulatory pressure in Europe and the cost (and payoff) of Meta’s AI buildout.
On Wednesday, December 24, 2025, Meta shares traded around $666, giving the company a market value near $1.85 trillion.
Below is a complete, up-to-the-minute roundup of the key news, analyst forecasts, and market analyses published on 24.12.2025—and what they mean for Meta stock into 2026.
Meta stock price check: where META stands on Dec. 24, 2025
Meta stock traded at roughly $666.52 in the latest available quote on Dec. 24, with an intraday range of about $661.46 to $666.52. The quote also implies a trailing P/E around 31.5 (data varies by provider and methodology).
Several market commentaries published today frame Meta as up in 2025 but still well off its late-summer highs, reflecting how sentiment has cooled since the company emphasized even heavier AI investment. [1]
The biggest Meta headline today: Italy orders Meta to halt WhatsApp terms that could block rival AI chatbots
The most consequential Meta-specific news on December 24, 2025 came from Italy.
Reuters reported that Italy’s antitrust authority (AGCM) ordered Meta to suspend contractual terms tied to WhatsApp that regulators believe could shut rival AI chatbots out of the platform, as part of an investigation into suspected abuse of a dominant position. Meta called the decision “fundamentally flawed” and said it plans to appeal. [2]
Key points from the Reuters report that matter for META stock:
- The watchdog’s concern is that Meta’s conduct could restrict market access and technical development in AI chatbot services, potentially harming consumers. [3]
- The Italian probe began earlier in 2025 and was expanded, and Reuters notes EU antitrust regulators have a parallel investigation over similar allegations. [4]
- The case highlights the widening gap between Europe’s approach to Big Tech and a comparatively lighter U.S. regulatory posture—an ongoing overhang for mega-cap tech valuations. [5]
Investor’s Business Daily added more operational detail in its Dec. 24 coverage: the dispute centers on WhatsApp’s Business API and a planned policy change that would have limited third‑party AI assistants, potentially affecting tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. [6]
Why this matters for Meta stock:
WhatsApp is one of Meta’s most strategically important assets for the next leg of growth—especially as Meta works to monetize messaging more aggressively. Any regulatory move that constrains how Meta integrates (or privileges) Meta AI inside WhatsApp can introduce uncertainty around product roadmaps, monetization, and competitive dynamics.
The AI spending debate is back: “Year of efficiency” vs. “AI at any cost”
If today’s regulatory headline is the spark, the tinder is still the same: AI capex and investor confidence in returns.
A MarketWatch analysis published today argues that Meta’s 2025 AI investment surge—paired with rising depreciation and a lack of a cloud business that could rent out excess capacity—has pressured sentiment, contributing to a meaningful pullback from Meta’s peak. [7]
MarketWatch also points to Meta’s Hyperion project financing as emblematic of the scale of spending, while noting Meta has reportedly made cuts to metaverse-focused Reality Labs and may prioritize higher-return bets like ad ranking and AI wearables. [8]
What Meta itself has said about capex and cost pressure
Meta’s most recent official guidance (from its Q3 2025 results) helps explain why this remains the market’s central debate:
- Meta reported Q3 2025 capital expenditures (including principal payments on finance leases) of $19.37 billion. [9]
- Meta guided to full-year 2025 capex of $70–$72 billion (in that same Q3 release). [10]
- CFO commentary warned that as Meta plans for next year, compute needs have expanded, and Meta expects to invest aggressively through both owned infrastructure and third-party cloud—adding upward pressure on capex and expenses, with 2026 capex dollar growth expected to be “notably larger” than 2025. [11]
In other words: investors aren’t just reacting to what Meta already spent—they’re trying to price a future where spending accelerates again.
Hyperion and “creative financing”: why investors are scrutinizing AI infrastructure accounting
Two additional pieces of reporting/analysis published today broaden the AI-infrastructure narrative around Meta:
1) Meta’s Hyperion data center JV: the hard numbers
Meta’s investor relations materials on the Hyperion joint venture (announced earlier) show how big the commitment is: the parties committed to fund pro rata shares of about $27 billion in total development costs, with funds managed by Blue Owl owning 80% of the JV and Meta 20%. [12]
2) Transparency and accounting concerns are rising across Big Tech
A Wall Street Journal analysis published on Dec. 24 highlights investor concerns that AI infrastructure costs are often buried in broad “construction-in-progress” accounts, making it harder to understand the lifespan and depreciation profile of assets like buildings versus rapidly obsolescing chips. The WSJ notes that Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have all shown major increases in these categories, while disclosure detail remains limited. [13]
Why that matters for META:
Meta’s valuation increasingly rests on whether AI spend translates into measurable improvements in:
- ad performance (conversion, pricing, targeting),
- engagement (time spent, retention),
- and new revenue streams (AI assistants, creators, messaging, wearables).
When disclosure is opaque, markets tend to demand a higher “confidence discount”—especially after a strong multi-year run in mega-cap tech.
Reality Labs: still a drag, even as Meta rebalances priorities
MarketWatch’s Dec. 24 analysis references Reality Labs losses as part of why “efficiency” is re-entering the conversation. [14]
Meta’s own segment reporting from Q3 2025 underscores the scale: Reality Labs showed an operating loss of $4.432 billion for the quarter. [15]
For META shareholders, Reality Labs is no longer the core thesis—but it remains a margin and narrative swing factor when markets are already uneasy about AI infrastructure costs.
Analyst forecasts for Meta stock: price targets cluster in the 800s, but the range is wide
Baird trims target, still says “opportunistic buyers”
Two separate Dec. 24 write-ups (Barron’s and Investor’s Business Daily) highlight the same key analyst action: Baird’s Colin Sebastian maintained an Outperform stance while trimming his price target from $820 to $815, arguing investors could be “opportunistic buyers” despite bruised sentiment and ongoing capex concerns. [16]
Barron’s also flags the core bear points that keep coming up in late-2025 Meta debates: margin worries, large AI infrastructure spend, questions about competitive positioning in AI, and social competition (including TikTok). [17]
Consensus targets
Across commonly tracked analyst aggregates:
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $828.71, with a high forecast above $1,100 and a low in the mid‑$600s, alongside a Strong Buy-leaning consensus. [18]
- Zacks reports an average target around $840.16, with a cited range that begins in the high‑$600s. [19]
- 24/7 Wall St.’s Dec. 24 forecast piece is more aggressive, projecting $875 in its one-year view and laying out a longer-term scenario framework through 2030. [20]
What the dispersion is really saying:
Wall Street broadly agrees Meta’s core ad engine is powerful—but disagrees on how quickly Meta can (1) monetize AI beyond better ads, and (2) prevent capex from compressing free cash flow and margins for an extended period.
Signals from ownership and insiders: hedge funds bought in Q3; a small insider sale hits headlines
A Motley Fool analysis published today notes that several prominent hedge fund managers added Meta shares in the third quarter, arguing Meta’s AI-driven engagement and ad improvements remain central to the bull case (while also acknowledging the backward-looking nature of the data). [21]
Meanwhile, Investing.com reported an insider transaction: Meta’s Chief Legal Officer Jennifer Newstead sold 519 shares on Dec. 23 at $659.38 (roughly $342,218 total), under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan, according to the report. [22]
How markets usually interpret this:
A single, relatively small planned sale rarely changes long-term fundamentals. But during periods of heightened sensitivity around spending and regulation, insider headlines can amplify volatility—especially in holiday-thin trading.
The macro backdrop: why META is being traded as an “AI spending” proxy into 2026
A broader Reuters market analysis published on Dec. 24 says the U.S. market is ending 2025 with another strong year, and argues that AI spending, corporate earnings growth, and Federal Reserve policy are key variables for 2026. [23]
Reuters notes:
- The S&P 500 is up over 17% in 2025 (with a few trading days left), after big gains in 2023 and 2024. [24]
- S&P 500 earnings are projected up over 15% in 2026, and the “Magnificent Seven” are still expected to grow profits faster than the rest of the index—though the gap may narrow. [25]
- Investors are increasingly focused on whether AI capex will generate returns; if confidence breaks, that could undermine AI-linked shares. [26]
For Meta stock specifically, this macro framing matters because META’s 2026 narrative is likely to hinge on three numbers above all:
- 2026 capex and expense guidance
- ad growth durability in a potentially changing rate environment
- evidence that AI investments are monetizing, not just consuming cash
What to watch next for Meta stock: the next catalyst calendar
1) Q4 earnings timing (late January vs early February)
Earnings-date trackers disagree slightly, and many label the date unconfirmed. Nasdaq and Zacks both show an estimate around February 4, 2026. [27]
2) Guidance that could reset the META multiple
Based on today’s coverage and the issues driving late-2025 sentiment, the next earnings call will likely be judged on:
- Capex trajectory for 2026 (and the split between owned build vs cloud) [28]
- How WhatsApp monetization and AI integration progress without triggering fresh regulatory escalation [29]
- Whether Meta can show continued ad strength—while keeping operating discipline credible enough to revive “efficiency” confidence [30]
Bottom line: Meta stock on Dec. 24 is caught between two powerful forces
On December 24, 2025, Meta Platforms stock sits at the intersection of:
- Regulatory risk (with WhatsApp and AI access now directly in antitrust crosshairs in Italy, alongside EU attention), and [31]
- AI infrastructure ambition (with investors demanding clearer proof that massive spend will translate into durable profit growth—rather than years of margin compression). [32]
Analysts who remain bullish generally see the current pullback from highs as an opportunity—especially with many price targets still in the low-to-mid $800s—but the market’s patience will likely depend on what Meta says next about 2026 spending discipline and AI monetization. [33]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. investor.atmeta.com, 10. investor.atmeta.com, 11. investor.atmeta.com, 12. investor.atmeta.com, 13. www.wsj.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. investor.atmeta.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.zacks.com, 20. 247wallst.com, 21. www.fool.com, 22. za.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. investor.atmeta.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com, 33. www.barrons.com
