December 24, 2025 — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) traded modestly higher in the holiday-thinned Christmas Eve session, holding near the 48,600 area around 10:32 a.m. as investors balanced upbeat rate-cut expectations for 2026 against a mixed macro backdrop and a steady stream of single-stock headlines. With U.S. markets scheduled to close early ahead of Christmas Day, even small bursts of buying and selling have had an outsized impact on intraday moves. [1]
Dow Jones level at 10:32 a.m. today
In mid-morning trading, the Dow was hovering around the 48,600 mark—up roughly 0.3% on the day—based on delayed index quotes during the session. [2]
That “steady-to-slightly-higher” tone fit the broader tape: U.S. equities were trading in a narrow range as investors leaned into a familiar year-end theme—hopes for easing policy next year—while respecting the reality that holiday liquidity can exaggerate swings in both directions. [3]
The big picture: stocks higher, but the day is short
Christmas Eve is not a normal trading day. U.S. stock markets are set to close at 1:00 p.m. ET, with the bond market closing later in the afternoon, and U.S. markets shut on Christmas Day. That calendar tends to compress activity into the morning and amplify headline-driven moves. [4]
By late morning, major indexes were still edging higher overall, and the risk-on undertone was hard to miss—especially with the S&P 500 pushing to a fresh intraday record (a sign that appetite for large-cap U.S. stocks remains strong into year-end). [5]
What’s driving the Dow Jones today
Several forces are shaping the Dow’s “grind higher” on Dec. 24:
1) Rate-cut expectations are back in the driver’s seat
Investors have increasingly framed the late-December rally around the idea that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates again in 2026—or at least keep policy from tightening further—if inflation cooperates and the labor market softens without cracking. Reuters noted that the renewed push into risk assets was supported by bets on additional rate cuts next year, and that markets have been sensitive to recent inflation and labor-market signals. [6]
That backdrop traces back to the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut earlier this month, when policymakers cited labor-market weakness while signaling they wanted clearer data before moving again. [7]
2) The AI trade is recovering—again
Even though the Dow is more “old economy” than the Nasdaq, it rarely trades in isolation. Reuters described a renewed rotation into heavyweight tech and AI-linked names after a November drawdown, helped by improving sentiment around the AI earnings cycle. That broader risk appetite has supported U.S. equities generally, including Dow components. [8]
3) Holiday liquidity is keeping the index in a tight range
Thin trading can mute the index’s movement—until it doesn’t. With fewer participants, fewer orders can move prices, but many big funds also try not to make major position changes when liquidity is poor. Reuters highlighted that trading volumes were light ahead of the holiday closure, which is typical for this week. [9]
4) A handful of single stocks are doing the heavy lifting
On a day like today, one or two headline names can dominate the “why” behind the Dow’s move—especially with a 30-stock index.
Key Dow movers in focus
Nike jumps after Tim Cook’s purchase signals confidence
One of the most widely discussed Dow stories today is Nike. Shares rose after a regulatory filing showed Apple CEO Tim Cook—a long-time Nike board member—bought 50,000 shares at an average price near $58.97. Analysts described the purchase as a positive signal for Nike’s turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, even as the company faces margin pressure and sluggish China demand. [10]
Because Nike is a Dow component, a sharp move in the stock can have a noticeable effect on the index—especially during a low-volume holiday session.
Intel under pressure after report tied to Nvidia testing decision
Another market-moving headline centered on Intel, after a report said Nvidia halted testing related to Intel’s advanced “18A” manufacturing process. Intel shares fell on the news, a reminder that the market’s AI narrative can quickly turn into a “show me” moment for semiconductor manufacturing roadmaps. [11]
Today’s economic data: jobless claims stay low, but hiring looks sluggish
Economic news mattered this morning too, with the U.S. labor market still sending a mixed signal:
- Initial jobless claims:214,000 for the week ending Dec. 20 (down 10,000)
- Insured unemployment (continued claims):1.923 million for the week ending Dec. 13 (up 38,000) [12]
The combination suggests layoffs remain historically contained, but rising continuing claims can imply it’s taking longer for unemployed workers to find a new job—often described as a “no hire, no fire” environment. [13]
For Dow investors, that’s a key tension:
- Low layoffs can support consumer spending and corporate earnings.
- Sluggish hiring can signal slowing growth, which may push the Fed toward easing—but can also cap revenue growth for cyclicals.
The macro backdrop: strong GDP, sticky inflation signals, and policy uncertainty
While today’s trading action is mild, the context from this week is not. U.S. third-quarter GDP was reported at 4.3% annualized growth, the fastest pace in two years, driven by strong consumer spending and other components—yet inflation measures in the report accelerated, complicating the policy outlook. [14]
That’s one reason markets have been flip-flopping on the timing of the next Fed move: strong growth and firmer inflation typically argue for patience, while softer labor-market momentum argues for eventual cuts. [15]
Cross-asset signals: yields ease, gold and silver hit records
Outside equities, the day’s “risk mood” has been nuanced:
- The 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly in the morning. [16]
- Gold surged above $4,500, and silver hit fresh record highs, moves Reuters linked to safe-haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations for lower U.S. rates next year. [17]
Those record metals prices don’t directly drive the Dow—but they do reinforce that even as stocks push higher, a chunk of global capital is still paying up for hedges.
Dow Jones outlook: Santa rally hopes meet 2026 forecast reality
The “Santa rally” setup is in motion
With the calendar turning, investors are watching for the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window. Reuters noted the classic definition—the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January—and flagged that trading volumes typically thin into the holidays, increasing the odds of headline-driven moves. [18]
What strategists are saying about 2026
The forward-looking story is broadly constructive, but not without caution:
- An Investopedia round-up of Wall Street outlooks noted that many forecasters still expect gains in 2026, but with elevated volatility and ongoing debate about whether the AI rally is sustainably priced. It also cited an average year-end 2026 S&P 500 target (via LPL analysis) implying mid-single-digit upside from record levels. [19]
- Charles Schwab’s 2026 outlook similarly warned of an “unstable” macro environment and policy crosscurrents, but argued stocks could still churn higher on a firmer earnings backdrop—again pointing to a higher-volatility, rotation-heavy market. [20]
For the Dow specifically, that suggests a tug-of-war:
- If easing rates and stable growth persist, industrials and financials (both heavily represented in the DJIA) could stay supported.
- If the market narrative shifts back toward “higher for longer” yields or renewed growth scares, the Dow’s more cyclical mix can see sharper sector rotations.
What to watch after 10:32 a.m. into the close
With the early close approaching, Dow watchers are focusing on a short checklist:
- Any late-morning shifts in rate expectations (especially if bond yields move suddenly)
- Big Dow components’ headline risk (Nike is already one; any additional catalyst can matter more today) [21]
- Year-end positioning—thin liquidity can magnify moves into the 1 p.m. close
- The post-holiday handoff—U.S. markets reopen Friday after Christmas, when liquidity typically improves and price discovery becomes clearer. [22]
Bottom line
As of 10:32 a.m. on Dec. 24, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was holding near 48,600, modestly higher in a shortened Christmas Eve session defined by thin volume, a fresh risk-on impulse tied to 2026 rate-cut bets, and stock-specific catalysts led by Nike’s jump after Tim Cook’s purchase. The bigger story, though, remains year-end: U.S. equities are closing out 2025 with strong gains, and markets are now trying to price the fine line between “soft landing with cuts” and “too-strong growth with sticky inflation.” [23]
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. markets.ft.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. www.dol.gov, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.schwab.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. markets.ft.com
