Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ended the Christmas Eve session in the spotlight for reasons that go well beyond day-to-day price action: regulators are tightening the screws on the App Store worldwide, courts are reshaping how app marketplaces can be policed, and Wall Street is increasingly treating Apple’s 2026 story as an “AI delivery” story—with Siri at the center of the plot.
In thin holiday trading, Apple stock finished December 24, 2025 around $274 (close: $274.29, up from $272.36 the day before). The session’s range was roughly $272.25 to $274.74, with volume notably light—about 6.7 million shares, reflecting the shortened trading day. [1]
That shortened day matters, because U.S. exchanges ran an early close: the NYSE lists December 24, 2025 as a 1:00 p.m. ET early close ahead of Christmas Day. [2]
Below is what’s driving Apple stock headlines and forecasts on 24.12.2025, and what investors are watching next.
Apple stock price on December 24, 2025: holiday-thin trading, steady tone
Apple shares held a firm tone into the holiday break, closing at $274.29 on Dec. 24 versus $272.36 on Dec. 23—an increase of about $1.93, or ~0.7%. [3]
Market cap estimates put Apple back in rarefied air: around $4.05 trillion as of Dec. 24, 2025 (using contemporaneous market cap trackers), underscoring why every regulatory tweak or AI roadmap update tends to echo through indexes. [4]
The biggest Apple stock news on 24.12.2025: Brazil forces iOS to open up—again
Brazil settlement: third-party app stores and alternative payments on iOS
The headline grabbing global investor attention: Apple agreed to allow third-party app stores on iOS in Brazil and to permit alternative in-app payment processing (or links out to external websites for transactions) to settle a multi-year case with Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE. Reuters reports Apple has 105 days to implement the changes; the agreement lasts three years once the new terms become mandatory for developers, with potential penalties if Apple breaches the deal. [5]
Apple, per Reuters, also argued that opening iOS in this way introduces privacy and security risks, even if it attempts to maintain safeguards. [6]
Why this matters for AAPL stock:
- The App Store sits inside Apple’s Services business—one of the market’s most watched profit engines.
- Brazil adds to the broader global pattern: regulatory pressure is no longer concentrated in just one region; it’s “copy-pasting” across jurisdictions, with local variations.
Additional detail reported by The Verge suggests Apple may still collect certain fees under the new approach (including commissions and a “Core Technology Commission” for alternative app stores), while being required to comply within the same 105-day window or face fines. [7]
The market takeaway: even when the immediate dollar impact is hard to quantify, investors tend to treat these changes as precedent risk—a signal that more countries may demand similar “open ecosystem” concessions.
Another key Apple stock headwind: Italy fines Apple over App Tracking Transparency
Italy’s competition authority AGCM announced a fine of 98.6 million euros (about $115.5 million) against Apple and two divisions, alleging abuse of dominance tied to Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework. Reuters reports the regulator argued Apple imposed more restrictive privacy policies on third-party developers and required duplicated consent requests, while Apple said it strongly disagrees and plans to appeal. [8]
Important nuance for investors:
- The fine itself is not financially material for Apple.
- The principle is: regulators are increasingly challenging how Apple balances privacy controls with platform power—especially where advertising economics and App Store rules intersect.
In other words, this is less “one-time penalty” and more “ongoing policy trench warfare.”
U.S. legal relief: Texas app store age-verification law blocked
In the U.S., a federal judge in Texas blocked enforcement of a new law that would have required app stores and developers to verify user ages and obtain parental consent for minors. Reuters reports the court found the law likely violates First Amendment protections, issuing a preliminary injunction. [9]
Apple’s own developer news channel also referenced the injunction and said Apple would pause previously announced implementation plans while monitoring the legal process—an unusually direct signal that the company was actively preparing for compliance before the court intervened. [10]
For AAPL investors, this item cuts two ways:
- Near-term: reduced compliance burden and less forced redesign around age verification.
- Longer-term: the political push to regulate youth online access is not going away; this is likely to reappear via appeals, revised bills, or other states.
The core Apple stock forecast theme for 2026: “Siri 2.0” as the AI catalyst
“Will 2026 be the year Apple finally joins the AI race?”
Several widely circulated analyst narratives on Dec. 24 frame Apple’s next leg as a software and AI execution test, not a hardware-only story. Investor’s Business Daily highlights expectations that Apple will roll out a major Siri upgrade—often dubbed “Siri 2.0”—in March or April 2026, after delays from earlier timelines. [11]
One bullish version of the thesis:
- A meaningfully better Siri + Apple Intelligence features could stimulate iPhone upgrade demand and expand Services monetization opportunities (potentially via a freemium-to-paid model over time). [12]
A concrete example of how this translates into price targets:
- Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, per IBD coverage, raised Apple’s price target to $315 and kept an overweight stance, explicitly tying upside to Apple improving its AI positioning into 2026 and to a major Siri release. [13]
Related background reporting (earlier in the cycle) also pointed to Apple potentially relying on external models in parts of its Siri revamp; Reuters previously reported on a Bloomberg claim that Apple planned to use Google’s AI model for a Siri overhaul. [14]
The investor bottom line: Apple doesn’t need to “win AI” in a research sense. The stock tends to respond to whether Apple can ship AI features at Apple scale—reliably, privately, and with a business model that doesn’t torch margins.
Apple’s quieter AI news: an open-source model that turns 2D photos into 3D scenes
Away from Siri, Apple’s research footprint also generated headlines: TechRadar reported Apple unveiled an AI tool called SHARP that can generate photorealistic 3D scenes from a single image in under a second, positioning it as a proof-of-concept aligned with Apple’s broader spatial computing direction (but not yet a consumer feature with a public timeline). [15]
9to5Mac also covered the open-source SHARP release and emphasized its speed and 2D-to-3D reconstruction capability. [16]
For AAPL stock, this sort of news is rarely a same-day price driver. It’s more like “credibility compounding”—evidence Apple is investing in underlying capabilities that could feed future products (Vision Pro-class devices, spatial photos, immersive media creation workflows).
China remains a macro lever: Apple COO meeting noted by Reuters
Any Apple stock outlook still has to contend with China exposure—manufacturing, supply chain, and demand. Reuters reported China’s Vice Commerce Minister met with Apple COO Sabih Khan, with China signaling it hoped Apple would continue working with Chinese partners and develop the Chinese market. [17]
These diplomatic/business touchpoints can matter because Apple’s valuation tends to be sensitive to perceived stability (or instability) in U.S.–China trade and regulatory relations.
Apple stock valuation: the market is still paying a premium
Apple’s bulls often argue the company deserves a premium multiple because it combines:
- a massive installed base,
- customer lock-in,
- and an unusually strong cash-generation machine.
Skeptics counter that the premium becomes harder to defend if Apple is perceived as behind in AI.
Reuters Breakingviews recently noted Apple trading at a high multiple versus other mega-cap peers, citing data that put Apple around the mid-30s multiple on 2026 earnings in that commentary. [18]
That valuation debate is why 2026 “execution moments” (Siri, Apple Intelligence adoption, Services growth resilience under regulation) are disproportionately important.
Wall Street’s AAPL forecast: consensus targets point to modest upside—wide disagreement underneath
Aggregator-based consensus snapshots (not a substitute for reading the underlying analyst notes, but useful as a temperature check) show:
- an average 12‑month price target around $288.62, versus a Dec. 24 price around $274 (about ~5% implied upside),
- with a wide spread between high and low targets (reflecting disagreement about AI upside vs. regulatory/valuation risk). [19]
This “modest upside, high dispersion” structure is typical of mega-cap stocks at premium valuations: the stock doesn’t need believers—it needs Apple to avoid disappointment.
What to watch next for Apple stock: earnings, deadlines, and “proof-of-shipping”
1) Next earnings window (currently estimated around late January 2026)
Analyst calendars currently point to January 29, 2026 as a likely earnings date (after market close), though dates can shift until Apple confirms. [20]
2) Brazil implementation clock
The Brazil deal’s 105-day implementation requirement turns into a real, trackable catalyst: investors will watch what Apple changes, how it frames security warnings, and whether monetization rules are preserved. [21]
3) Italy appeal and broader EU spillover risk
Italy’s fine is part of a wider European posture toward platform power. Whether Apple must modify how ATT is implemented (or how it applies across Apple vs. third-party apps) could ripple into the advertising ecosystem narrative. [22]
4) Siri 2.0 delivery signals
From leaks to beta references to Apple’s own commentary: any credible sign that Siri’s revamp is on track for early 2026 may move sentiment, because this is now a consensus “next big thing” in many Apple stock notes. [23]
The near-term bull case vs. bear case for AAPL
Bull case (what optimists are betting on):
Apple threads the needle—opens ecosystems where required but retains meaningful economics, while a real Siri/Apple Intelligence upgrade pulls forward upgrades and keeps Services growth durable. Analyst narratives increasingly frame 2026 as the year Apple’s AI story “arrives.” [24]
Bear case (what skeptics worry about):
Regulatory openings (Brazil today, others tomorrow) gradually compress App Store economics and weaken platform leverage—at the same time Apple’s premium valuation leaves little room for AI delays or underwhelming user adoption. Italy’s ATT decision is a reminder that the privacy narrative itself is now under antitrust scrutiny. [25]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.theverge.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. developer.apple.com, 11. www.investors.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.techradar.com, 16. 9to5mac.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. finance.yahoo.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.reuters.com
