December 24, 2025 — GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE: GEV) has become one of the market’s most closely watched “power for AI” stocks in 2025, and Christmas Eve trading is arriving with the shares still in the spotlight after a dramatic two-week stretch of upgrades, volatility, and fresh contract headlines.
As of the latest available trade on Dec. 24, GE Vernova stock was trading around $667 (up roughly 0.9% on the day), after opening near $660.63 and moving within an intraday range of $658.95–$673.36.
With U.S. markets operating on a holiday schedule—including an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025—liquidity can be thinner than usual, and price swings can look bigger than the news flow might otherwise justify. [1]
Below is what investors are focusing on today: the company’s newly raised multi-year guidance, the gas turbine and grid “supercycle” narrative tied to data centers, fresh electrification wins, and the key risks that keep showing up in analyst notes—especially valuation and wind policy uncertainty.
GE Vernova stock today: price action and why holiday trading matters
GE Vernova’s stock has been extremely reactive to sentiment shifts in the “AI infrastructure” trade—power generation, grid equipment, and electrification names that investors see as indirect beneficiaries of data center buildouts.
That sensitivity has been magnified this month because:
- The stock surged to new highs after the company’s investor update and guidance reset.
- Then it sold off sharply during a brief market-wide wobble around the AI theme.
- And then it rebounded, as investors weighed whether the pullback was fundamental or mostly narrative-driven.
Barron’s reported that GE Vernova recently saw an ~11% one-day drop, not tied to company-specific negative news, but linked to renewed fears that more energy-efficient AI chips could reduce incremental power demand from data centers—an echo of earlier “AI power intensity” scares. [2]
On a day like Dec. 24—with markets closing early—moves can look exaggerated. This is worth remembering if you’re using Christmas Eve trading as a “signal” about longer-term fundamentals. [3]
The big fundamental reset: GE Vernova raised its 2026 guidance and 2028 outlook
The most important catalyst for GE Vernova stock in December is straightforward: management raised its financial trajectory and paired it with more shareholder returns.
At its December investor update, GE Vernova laid out:
- 2025 guidance: revenue $36–$37B (trending toward the high end), adjusted EBITDA margin 8%–9%, free cash flow $3.5–$4.0B (raised). [4]
- 2026 guidance: revenue $41–$42B, adjusted EBITDA margin 11%–13%, free cash flow $4.5–$5.0B. [5]
- 2028 outlook: revenue $52B and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin (a meaningful step-up versus prior targets), and $22B+ cumulative free cash flow from 2025–2028. [6]
Reuters highlighted that the upbeat 2026 view is being framed around demand from AI and other data-intensive industries, boosting demand for GE Vernova’s power and grid equipment. [7]
Shareholder returns: doubled dividend and a bigger buyback authorization
GE Vernova didn’t just raise targets—it also increased the “hard” capital return signals that often matter to institutional investors:
- Quarterly dividend doubled to $0.50 per share, with the company stating it is payable Feb. 2, 2026 to shareholders of record Jan. 5, 2026. [8]
- Share repurchase authorization increased to $10B (from $6B); the company said it had already spent $3.3B of that authorization as of Dec. 3, 2025. [9]
For GEV stock bulls, the “package deal” is clear: higher multi-year targets + a bigger buyback ceiling + a higher dividend. For skeptics, the question is whether those targets are already priced in.
The demand engine: gas turbines “sold out,” data centers, and a growing backlog
GE Vernova’s 2025 story has been dominated by one macro theme: electricity demand growth—and the equipment needed to meet it.
Reuters: 80 GW in signed combined-cycle gas turbine contracts expected by year-end
Reuters reported GE Vernova expects 80 gigawatts of signed combined-cycle gas turbine contracts by the end of 2025, citing accelerating demand tied to data centers. The report also noted commentary that GE Vernova has effectively sold out of gas turbines through 2028, with limited capacity left beyond that timeframe. [10]
Permitting and pipelines remain real constraints
In that same Reuters reporting, GE Vernova flagged practical bottlenecks: state/local permitting and fuel pipeline availability can slow the pace at which new gas power can be built, regardless of demand. [11]
Utility Dive: backlog stretching into 2029 and capacity planning
Utility Dive also emphasized the growing turbine backlog and capacity roadmap, reporting GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog stretching into 2029, and discussed how turbine manufacturing capacity could rise over time (with an emphasis on disciplined expansion rather than rushing new plants). [12]
For GE Vernova stock, the market takeaway is: visibility. The more years of backlog investors can “see,” the more comfortable they may be assigning a premium multiple—until valuation becomes the story again.
Electrification is not just a U.S. story: new HVDC wins in India and Europe
One of the most underappreciated aspects of the GE Vernova stock thesis is that the “AI power” narrative is only half the picture. The other half is grid buildout and modernization, including high-voltage direct current (HVDC), which is increasingly used for long-distance transmission and renewable integration.
India: Adani 2.5 GW HVDC corridor (order expected 1H 2026)
On Dec. 22, 2025, GE Vernova announced a major Electrification Systems contract with Adani Energy Solutions to supply HVDC technology for a 2.5 GW transmission corridor tied to renewable power evacuation from India’s Khavda renewable energy zone. GE Vernova said the award is expected to be booked as an order in the first half of 2026, with completion targeted by 2030. [13]
Germany: TenneT BalWin5 offshore grid connection
GE Vernova (with Seatrium) also announced a major contract from TenneT to connect North Sea wind power to Germany’s grid (BalWin5), highlighting the firm’s role in delivering HVDC technology and converter stations. [14]
For GEV stock watchers, these announcements reinforce that the “grid capex cycle” is global—and not solely dependent on U.S. data center construction.
Nuclear optionality: DOE funding for the BWRX-300 SMR project
Another December headline with potential longer-term significance: GE Vernova Hitachi’s small modular reactor (SMR) program.
GE Vernova announced that the U.S. Department of Energy awarded a $400 million grant to the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to accelerate deployment work tied to the BWRX-300 SMR at the Clinch River site, with commercial operation targeted for the early 2030s. GE Vernova also noted TVA submitted a construction permit application to the NRC, which is reviewing it. [15]
This is not likely to be a near-term earnings driver, but it can matter for narrative and optionality—especially as investors look for “beyond gas and grid” growth vectors.
The wind segment: still a drag—and policy headlines aren’t helping
GE Vernova’s wind business remains the soft spot in the story, and management has been transparent about it.
From the company’s own investor-day materials:
- Wind 2025: organic revenue down high-single digits; about $400M of segment EBITDA losses
- Wind 2026: organic revenue down low-double digits; “similar losses” to 2025
- By 2028: wind segment EBITDA margin outlook around 6% (still below prior expectations) [16]
Management has also discussed execution progress on offshore wind projects in backlog (including references to Vineyard Wind and Dogger Bank milestones). [17]
New risk factor: offshore wind paused on national security grounds
A major sector-wide development this week: multiple outlets reported the U.S. Interior Department paused work on several large offshore wind projects for at least 90 days, citing national security concerns, affecting projects including Vineyard Wind 1 and others. [18]
Investors should be cautious about drawing a straight line from a policy move to GE Vernova’s earnings. But given offshore wind’s history of cost overruns and legal complexity, additional uncertainty can matter—particularly for a segment already expected to post losses.
Supply chain and geopolitics: rare-earth yttrium is on the watchlist
Another headline investors are tracking: materials risk.
Reuters reported GE Vernova is working with the U.S. government to increase stockpiles of yttrium, a rare earth used in high-temperature applications, amid China’s export controls. GE Vernova’s CEO said the company had yttrium inventory to last through the rest of 2025 and into next year, and that GE Vernova is also exploring alternatives (with trade-offs). [19]
For GEV stock, this is part of a broader “can you deliver on backlog?” question. When demand is strong, execution and supply chain reliability become as important as orders.
Credit ratings improved: S&P and Fitch upgrades support an investment-grade narrative
A quieter—but meaningful—tailwind for GE Vernova stock is improving credit quality.
- S&P Global Ratings upgraded GE Vernova to ‘BBB’ (Dec. 11, 2025), citing improved profitability and expectations for further margin progress over time. [20]
- Fitch upgraded GE Vernova to ‘BBB+’ with a Positive outlook (Dec. 18, 2025). [21]
In practical terms, stronger ratings can lower financing costs and support flexibility for capex and M&A—relevant as GE Vernova pursues strategic moves like the Prolec GE transaction.
M&A and portfolio moves: Prolec GE and the Proficy sale
GE Vernova’s strategy has included targeted portfolio reshaping:
- Reuters reported GE Vernova plans to buy the remaining 50% stake in transformer maker Prolec GE for $5.28B, expected to close by mid-2026 (subject to approvals), funded with a mix of cash and debt. [22]
- Reuters also reported GE Vernova plans to sell its Proficy industrial software unit to TPG for $600M, expected to close in the first half of 2026, with GE Vernova shifting focus toward grid software. [23]
These are not just financial engineering. They’re consistent with a broader theme: leaning harder into grid equipment and grid software—areas where demand is accelerating.
Analyst forecasts for GE Vernova stock: price targets climbed, but valuation is the debate
GE Vernova stock has attracted a wide span of analyst targets—reflecting both optimism about demand and caution about valuation.
The bulls: $830–$1,000 targets after the investor update
- J.P. Morgan lifted its price target to $1,000, cited as a Street high, following stronger-than-expected order activity and electrification growth commentary. [24]
- Jefferies has been highlighted with a ~$830 target in recent coverage. [25]
- Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to outperform/outperform-equivalent with an $855 target, pointing to AI infrastructure buildout momentum. [26]
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $831 and kept an Overweight rating, according to a recap of the note. [27]
The cautious camp: “fair valuation” calls and DCF-based anchors
- Seaport Global downgraded GE Vernova to Neutral after the rally, arguing valuation had become fair. [28]
- Wolfe Research maintained a more neutral stance (“Peerperform”) and referenced a DCF-based fair value framework that implied a more restrained outlook relative to the most bullish targets. [29]
Consensus snapshots: targets moved up, but dispersion is huge
A Nasdaq/Fintel compilation noted the average one-year price target for GE Vernova was revised to $765.71 (with targets spanning from the $400s to above $1,000). [30]
Barron’s also reported rising average targets (around the high-$700s) and a majority Buy-leaning rating mix in recent days. [31]
What this means for GE Vernova stock: analysts broadly agree on the direction of demand (up), but disagree on how much of the future is already priced in.
What to watch next for GEV stock heading into 2026
Key upcoming catalysts and checkpoints for investors tracking GE Vernova stock:
- Next earnings (timing still subject to confirmation): Some market calendars estimate a late-January 2026 report (often listed around Jan. 28, 2026, though it may be algorithm-derived and not yet formally confirmed). [32]
- Order and backlog updates: especially gas turbine slot reservations and Electrification orders tied to data centers and grid upgrades. [33]
- Execution in Wind: whether offshore wind project milestones reduce uncertainty and cash drag over 2026–2027. [34]
- Policy headlines: offshore wind project pauses and legal/administrative developments could affect timelines and costs for the sector. [35]
- Deal progress: regulatory path for Prolec GE and closing steps for the Proficy sale (both guided toward 1H 2026 / mid-2026 windows). [36]
Bottom line: GE Vernova stock remains a flagship “electrification and power for AI” play—at a premium price
GE Vernova’s December narrative is powerful: raised guidance, accelerating cash generation, and a growing role in the infrastructure buildout behind data centers and grid modernization. [37]
But the stock’s recent whipsaws show the market is treating GEV less like a slow-moving industrial and more like a theme stock: when the “AI power demand” narrative gets questioned—even briefly—GE Vernova stock can move hard. [38]
For investors and editors writing about GE Vernova stock (GEV) on Dec. 24, 2025, the most accurate framing is this: fundamentals have improved sharply, visibility is rising, and Wall Street targets are climbing—but valuation and wind-related uncertainty are the key friction points. [39]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. ir.theice.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. ir.theice.com, 4. www.gevernova.com, 5. www.gevernova.com, 6. www.gevernova.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.gevernova.com, 9. www.gevernova.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.utilitydive.com, 13. www.gevernova.com, 14. www.gevernova.com, 15. www.gevernova.com, 16. www.gevernova.com, 17. www.gevernova.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.spglobal.com, 21. www.fitchratings.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.barrons.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. uk.investing.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.gevernova.com, 35. apnews.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.gevernova.com, 38. www.barrons.com, 39. www.barrons.com
