American Airlines Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) stock traded in a shortened Christmas Eve session as investors balanced two competing narratives: a record-setting holiday travel rush that supports near-term revenue, and a broader, longer-running debate over whether American can close its profitability gap versus Delta and United while managing customer satisfaction, labor costs, and operational reliability.
On Wednesday, December 24, 2025, AAL finished the day at $15.68, down 0.48%, after trading between $15.49 and $15.74—with lower-than-usual volume typical of holiday-shortened sessions. [1]
AAL stock price today: where American Airlines shares ended on Dec. 24, 2025
Because U.S. markets closed early for Christmas Eve—1:00 p.m. ET for major equity markets—price discovery was compressed into a shorter window, and liquidity was lighter than normal. [2]
American Airlines (AAL) – Dec. 24, 2025 trading snapshot
- Open: $15.61
- High: $15.74
- Low: $15.49
- Close: $15.68
- Volume: 15.64M shares [3]
That muted Christmas Eve move follows a choppy stretch:
- Dec. 22: closed $16.26 (+3.04%)
- Dec. 23: closed $15.60 (-4.06%)
- Dec. 24: closed $15.68 (-0.48%) [4]
Why airline stocks mattered on Christmas Eve: record holiday travel demand is the backdrop
The most important near-term fundamental tailwind for U.S. airlines right now is demand: holiday travel volumes are projected to be exceptionally strong.
The Transportation Security Administration said it is prepared to screen about 44.3 million travelers at airport checkpoints between Dec. 19, 2025 and Jan. 4, 2026, with the heaviest day expected to be Sunday, Dec. 28 (about 2.86 million). [5]
AAA separately forecast 122.4 million Americans traveling at least 50 miles from home over the Dec. 20–Jan. 1 holiday period, including a record 8.03 million domestic air travelers. AAA also noted domestic roundtrip airfare averaging nearly $900, about 7% higher based on booking data. [6]
In that context, market coverage on Dec. 24 highlighted airline stocks as part of a broader “holiday travel trade,” with attention on passenger volumes and demand resilience into year-end. [7]
AAL’s customer headlines: basic economy tickets no longer earn miles or Loyalty Points
A key company-specific headline still echoing through the market this week is American’s change to its AAdvantage program economics for its cheapest fares.
Multiple outlets reported that basic economy tickets purchased on or after Dec. 17, 2025 no longer earn AAdvantage miles or Loyalty Points toward status. American said it “routinely evaluate[s]” fare products to remain competitive, while keeping some core basics (personal item, carry-on, snacks, soft drinks, in-flight entertainment). [8]
From an investor lens, the question isn’t only customer reaction—it’s whether the policy improves revenue quality by nudging some travelers to higher-priced Main Cabin fares and reducing the “loyalty subsidy” embedded in ultra-low fares. CBS News, for example, framed it as a move to make basic economy less attractive to travelers who might otherwise pay up for a higher fare class. [9]
Still, changes like this can be double-edged:
- Potential upside: higher average ticket yield and improved loyalty program economics.
- Potential downside: reputational risk and customer churn—especially among price-sensitive flyers.
The bigger strategic narrative: American is trying to “premiumize” to catch Delta and United
The most consequential medium-term story for American Airlines stock in late 2025 is its renewed push into premium cabins, premium experiences, and loyalty-linked revenue—an attempt to narrow the profitability gap with its biggest network rivals.
Reuters reported on Dec. 17 that American is rolling out a premium-focused “customer reimagination” plan—highlighting upgraded long-haul cabins, premium products, and improved connectivity—while leaning on new aircraft such as the Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321XLR as cornerstones of the strategy. [10]
Management’s stated aim: deliver measurable revenue improvement beginning in 2026 as these upgrades scale. [11]
But Reuters also emphasized the obstacles investors keep circling back to:
- Execution risk and delays (including aircraft delivery and retrofit bottlenecks),
- Operational reliability shortcomings,
- Labor friction (unions pushing for more accountability and stronger financial performance),
- And the structural challenge of being heavily exposed to the U.S. domestic market, where pricing can weaken quickly. [12]
Analyst forecasts for AAL stock: price targets cluster around the mid-teens, but upside cases exist
Wall Street’s stance on American Airlines stock remains cautious overall—more “show me” than “slam dunk”—but recent upgrades show that some analysts see a path to upside if the revenue mix improves and execution holds.
UBS upgrade: “Buy” with a $20 target
On Dec. 12, UBS upgraded AAL to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $20. UBS pointed to factors including a continued recovery in corporate revenue and growth in loyalty-related income, while also lifting its EPS expectations for 2026 and 2027. [13]
Other recent targets in the market
A compilation of recent targets shows a wide spread—reflecting how differently analysts weigh American’s leverage and execution risk versus the upside from revenue quality improvements. For example, recent listed targets included Wells Fargo ($17) and BMO Capital ($16.75), alongside UBS’s $20. [14]
Where consensus sits
Consensus estimates vary by source depending on the analyst set and update cadence:
- MarketBeat shows a “Hold” consensus rating and an average target of about $16.46 (based on 19 analysts in its panel). [15]
- StockAnalysis shows a “Hold” consensus with an average target of $15.34 (based on 14 analysts in its panel). [16]
Taken together, the consensus picture reads like this: the Street sees AAL as roughly fairly valued in the mid-teens, with meaningful dispersion between optimistic “turnaround works” scenarios and cautious “cycle turns down” scenarios.
Earnings outlook: guidance improved in 2025, but investors are focused on 2026 execution
American’s most recent major guidance reset came earlier in 2025. Reuters reported that in October, the company raised its full-year adjusted profit outlook to $0.65–$0.95 per share, a notable improvement from a wider and weaker outlook discussed mid-year. [17]
For investors reading AAL into 2026, the key isn’t just “did guidance improve?”—it’s “can American sustain it while funding the premium overhaul and maintaining operational reliability?”
This is why the market tends to react sharply to:
- unit revenue trends,
- cost control (especially non-fuel costs),
- and signs of corporate and premium demand momentum.
Risk watch: legal and operational overhangs investors can’t ignore
Beyond typical airline risks (fuel, macro, labor), American has also been tied to prominent aviation system and legal headlines in late 2025.
U.S. admits liability in fatal collision involving an American Airlines regional jet
Reuters reported that the U.S. Justice Department said the federal government was liable in connection with a fatal Jan. 29 collision involving an Army Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet, killing 67 people near Reagan Washington National Airport. [18]
From a shareholder perspective, legal proceedings can be complex; what matters is the evolving allocation of responsibility, potential damages, and longer-term regulatory and operational implications.
Shutdown-related disruption risk and air traffic control stress
Reuters also reported that a U.S. House committee advanced legislation aimed at preventing aviation disruptions during future government shutdowns by ensuring certain aviation workers are paid. In that reporting, Reuters cited prior disruption figures tied to a shutdown and government-imposed flight cuts—including large passenger impacts and thousands of cancellations. [19]
While those events are not daily occurrences, they highlight the industry’s exposure to system-level constraints outside any single airline’s control.
Other December developments on investors’ radar: Azul restructuring and potential inflight Wi‑Fi changes
Two other late-December items surfaced in widely read business coverage:
- Azul restructuring: Reuters reported that Brazil’s Azul launched a share offering after a restructuring process, noting that a judge approved debt restructuring allowing debt reduction and capital raising, including investment from American Airlines and United Airlines. [20]
- In-flight connectivity discussions: Bloomberg reported that American held discussions with Amazon about using Amazon’s satellite-based internet service for in-flight Wi‑Fi—part of a broader effort to attract premium customers and compete with rivals. [21]
Neither item alone is likely to swing the stock day-to-day the way earnings do, but both speak to strategic positioning: partnerships, customer experience, and potential revenue and cost implications.
The macro tape matters too: Santa-rally markets and rate-cut expectations
AAL also traded against a broader market backdrop on Dec. 24. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 hit a record intraday high during the shortened session amid optimism about potential interest rate cuts in 2026, with trading volumes muted ahead of the Christmas holiday. [22]
For airlines—especially those with meaningful debt—rate expectations can influence sentiment because borrowing costs affect refinancing, interest expense, and valuation multiples.
Bottom line for American Airlines (AAL) stock on Dec. 24, 2025
American Airlines stock ended Christmas Eve in the mid-teens after a volatile few sessions, with investors weighing:
- a very strong holiday travel demand backdrop, [23]
- near-term customer and product changes (like basic economy earning rules), [24]
- and the larger “premium turnaround” strategy that management expects to show greater financial impact starting in 2026. [25]
Analyst forecasts broadly cluster around “Hold,” but notable upside cases exist—especially among analysts who believe American can improve revenue quality and narrow the profitability gap versus Delta and United. [26]
Quick investor FAQ (for Google Discover readers)
What is American Airlines’ stock ticker?
American Airlines Group trades on Nasdaq under AAL. [27]
What did AAL stock do today (Dec. 24, 2025)?
AAL closed at $15.68, down 0.48%, in the shortened Christmas Eve session. [28]
What is the current analyst price target range for AAL?
Recent published targets include a range roughly from the low teens to around $20 in notable bullish cases, with consensus targets typically in the mid-teens depending on the source. [29]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Stocks can move quickly, especially in cyclical industries like airlines.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.prnewswire.com, 6. newsroom.aaa.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. www.cbsnews.com, 9. www.cbsnews.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. mlq.ai, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.bloomberg.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. www.cbsnews.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.investing.com
