Dec. 24, 2025 — Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOLX) finished the shortened Christmas Eve session at $74.50, with the stock trading around $74.80 in after-hours activity as of 7:00 p.m. ET. [1]
While today’s tape was shaped by holiday-thinned liquidity and an early close, the more important driver for HOLX right now is deal math — and fresh scrutiny around whether Hologic’s Breast Health revenue can still clear the targets tied to its contingent value right (CVR).
Below is what investors should know “after the bell” today and ahead of the next U.S. market session (note: U.S. markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25 for Christmas, so the next regular open is Friday, Dec. 26). [2]
Where HOLX closed today and what happened after-hours
Because it was Christmas Eve, U.S. exchanges ran on a shortened schedule: markets closed at 1:00 p.m. ET. [3]
Against that backdrop, HOLX ended the regular session at $74.50 (day range roughly $74.19–$74.62) on about 5.89 million shares. [4]
In after-hours trading, HOLX was quoted around $74.80 at 7:00 p.m. ET, up about $0.30 (+0.40%) from the early close. [5]
The simple takeaway on price action
HOLX is still trading below the $76 cash value baked into its pending buyout (more on that below). At today’s $74.50 close, the stock sat about $1.50 (≈2.0%) under the $76 cash consideration — before assigning any value to the CVR. That discount is the market’s way of pricing time-to-close, completion risk, and uncertainty around the CVR payout.
The headline catalyst investors are digesting: 2026 CVR milestone looks harder
A key “today” talking point in trading rooms and market news was this: Hologic has indicated that hitting the 2026 milestone under the CVR is now more challenging after the company stopped shipment of a specific product tied to breast biopsy procedures. [6]
In its merger-related proxy materials, Hologic disclosed that in November 2025, following an internal review of post-market data, it stopped shipment of Brevera Breast Biopsy System Disposable 9 Gauge Needles. The company also noted the stop-ship is ongoing, could be prolonged, and that the impact will depend on various contingencies — while explicitly warning that achieving the 2026 CVR milestone will be more challenging under these circumstances. [7]
Why this matters: the CVR is directly tied to Breast Health revenue performance. Anything that potentially pressures product availability, utilization, or consumables demand in the Breast Health ecosystem can change how investors handicap the CVR’s expected value.
Quick refresher: What is the Blackstone–TPG deal, and why does it dominate HOLX trading?
Hologic agreed to be acquired by affiliates of Blackstone and TPG in a transaction that values Hologic at up to $79 per share: $76 in cash upfront plus a non-tradable CVR that can pay up to $3 per share in total. [8]
The deal is expected to close in the first half of calendar 2026, subject to stockholder approval, regulatory approvals, and customary closing conditions. [9]
Two practical implications for HOLX stockholders:
- HOLX has a “floor/ceiling” feel typical of merger-arbitrage names: price tends to gravitate toward the cash consideration, then move with perceived deal risk.
- The CVR is non-tradable and uncertain, so the market often discounts it heavily — especially when the underlying milestones look less attainable.
How the CVR works and what investors should track
Per the merger documentation, each share converts into:
- $76.00 in cash, and
- one CVR that may pay additional cash if Breast Health revenue hits specified targets. [10]
The milestone targets that drive CVR value
The CVR payout is linked to the Revenue of Hologic’s Breast Health business in fiscal 2026 and 2027, with payments determined by threshold levels and linear interpolation within defined bands. [11]
Key thresholds disclosed include:
- FY2026 Breast Health revenue: thresholds around $1,556,844,377 to $1,571,844,377 for calculating the FY2026-linked CVR payment amount (up to $1.50 per CVR under certain conditions). [12]
- FY2027 Breast Health revenue: thresholds around $1,651,256,283 to $1,666,256,283 for calculating the FY2027-linked CVR payment amount (up to $1.50 per CVR under certain conditions). [13]
There is also a “catch-up” mechanism: if the FY2026 CVR payment is less than $1.50 and FY2027 revenue exceeds the upper threshold, excess FY2027 revenue can be used in a re-test to potentially increase the FY2026 payment. [14]
Why today’s “stop-ship” disclosure hits the CVR specifically
Because the halted product relates to Brevera breast biopsy procedures (and specifically disposable needles), the market is weighing whether the disruption could:
- reduce procedure throughput or consumables demand,
- shift customers to alternatives,
- or cause timing issues in revenue recognition within the FY2026 measurement window.
Hologic itself stopped short of quantifying the impact, but did acknowledge that the 2026 milestone becomes more challenging under the ongoing stop-ship. [15]
Deal timeline: the dates that matter next
If you’re watching HOLX into the next session (Friday, Dec. 26), the most important near-term catalysts are process milestones, not typical earnings catalysts.
1) The shareholder vote
Hologic’s merger vote is scheduled for a special meeting on Feb. 5, 2026, in a virtual-only format. [16]
2) The “outside date”
The merger agreement includes an Initial Outside Date of July 21, 2026 (with provisions that can extend the outside date by up to three months in certain cases). [17]
3) Go-shop is over
The deal included a go-shop window, and disclosures indicate that it ended Dec. 5, 2025 without the company receiving an acquisition proposal. [18]
Translation: the market’s base case is now more about approval/closing execution than a bidding war — which puts even more attention on regulatory review and any new operational issues that could affect the CVR narrative.
What analysts and market commentary said today
A notable piece of automated market commentary today pointed to unusually high trading volume in HOLX and framed the stock through both merger and fundamentals lenses. It cited an analyst consensus around “Hold” and referenced an average price target in the high-$70s, alongside reminders of Hologic’s recent quarterly beat. [19]
From a fundamentals standpoint, Hologic’s most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q4 2025) showed revenue of $1,049.5 million vs. $987.9 million a year earlier, among other line items. [20]
Still, because the transaction is pending, the company has also said it does not intend to provide fiscal 2026 guidance and does not plan to hold earnings calls while the deal is pending — which can reduce the normal cadence of catalysts for long-only investors. [21]
What to know before the next market open
Again, there is no U.S. market open on Dec. 25 (Christmas Day). The next regular session is Friday, Dec. 26. [22]
Here are the key things to monitor between now and that open:
1) Any follow-on disclosure about the Brevera needle stop-ship
Today’s after-hours conversation is unlikely to fade quickly unless investors get clearer answers on:
- expected duration,
- remediation steps,
- customer workarounds,
- and revenue impact timing.
Because the CVR depends on Breast Health revenue, the market may reprice HOLX if new information changes the probability of hitting the FY2026 threshold. [23]
2) Merger-arbitrage “spread” moves
With $76 cash on the table, HOLX trading around $74.5–$74.8 implies a meaningful (though not extreme) discount. That discount can tighten or widen based on:
- perceived regulatory progress,
- headline risk on product/shipment issues,
- or broader risk-on/risk-off market moves.
3) Calendar mechanics and liquidity
Holiday sessions can exaggerate moves. Nasdaq’s schedule highlights the holiday closures and early-close session, and it also notes that extended-hours trading tends to have less liquidity and higher volatility than normal hours. [24]
4) General market tone heading into year-end
Even with HOLX being deal-driven, broad sentiment still matters at the margin (especially for arbitrage and hedge fund positioning). On Christmas Eve, U.S. equities were pushing higher, with major indexes notching gains and fresh records discussed in market coverage. [25]
Bottom line for HOLX investors tonight
Hologic stock is behaving less like a classic medtech name and more like an event-driven merger security — with today’s incremental twist being CVR skepticism tied to a disclosed stop-ship in a breast biopsy consumable.
Going into the next open (Friday, Dec. 26), the key question isn’t whether Hologic is a “good company” in the abstract. It’s:
- How confident is the market that the deal closes on time at $76 cash? and
- How much (if anything) should investors pay today for a CVR whose FY2026 milestone just got labeled “more challenging”? [26]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. public.com, 6. seekingalpha.com, 7. www.streetinsider.com, 8. investors.hologic.com, 9. www.gic.com.sg, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.streetinsider.com, 16. www.streetinsider.com, 17. www.streetinsider.com, 18. www.streetinsider.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. investors.hologic.com, 21. www.gic.com.sg, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.streetinsider.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.sec.gov
