Updated: December 24, 2025, 5:01 a.m. ET (Christmas Eve)
Gold prices are ending 2025 with a historic flourish. In thin, holiday-shortened trading on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, bullion pushed through the $4,500-per-ounce psychological barrier and set fresh records before easing back as traders booked profits and liquidity thinned ahead of Christmas. [1]
Gold price today: where gold was trading around 5:01 a.m. ET
In early U.S. hours, COMEX gold futures were quoted near $4,503.40 per ounce (delayed), reflecting strong upside momentum after gold’s breakout above $4,500. [2]
That early read matters for two reasons:
- It captured the post-breakout “price discovery” phase when traders were still adjusting to gold’s move beyond a major milestone.
- It happened during a holiday week, when fewer market participants can amplify price swings in both directions. [3]
Note: Futures pricing can vary by contract month (December vs. February delivery), and futures can trade at a premium or discount to spot depending on rates, roll dynamics, and positioning.
Gold price later today: record highs, then a breather below $4,500
By later in the session, the rally cooled. Reuters reported that spot gold slipped about 0.2% to $4,479.38/oz after touching a new intraday record of $4,525.18/oz. [4]
In broader market wrap coverage, Reuters later pegged spot gold around $4,480/oz as markets moved through a light-volume, shortened Christmas Eve session. [5]
This “surge-then-pause” pattern is common after breakout days—especially near year-end, when profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing, and thin liquidity collide.
What’s driving gold right now
Gold’s late-2025 move is not about one headline. It’s a stacking of macro forces that have been building for months—then accelerated into year-end.
1) Rate-cut expectations: the biggest tailwind for non-yielding gold
Gold tends to benefit when investors expect lower policy rates and softer real yields, because the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset falls. On Dec. 24, market commentary repeatedly pointed to expectations for additional easing ahead. [6]
Reuters also highlighted political pressure on the future direction of U.S. rates—citing comments from President Donald Trump about wanting the next Fed chair to lower rates—adding another layer to rate expectations. [7]
2) Dollar weakness: a classic boost for gold
A softer U.S. dollar tends to support dollar-priced commodities by making them cheaper for non-U.S. buyers. Commentary around today’s move repeatedly tied gold’s strength to continued USD slippage in a holiday-thinned market backdrop. [8]
3) Geopolitics and “safe-haven” demand
The day’s news flow leaned heavily into safe-haven buying, with reports linking precious-metals strength to geopolitical uncertainty—including U.S.-Venezuela tensions—and broader geopolitical risks that keep investors reaching for hedges. [9]
4) Holiday liquidity: why the moves look bigger than usual
Christmas Eve trading is notoriously “thin.” With fewer orders in the market, it doesn’t take much to push prices into new highs—or to snap them back when profit-taking hits.
Multiple market updates today emphasized that holiday-shortened schedules and lower participation can exaggerate price swings. [10]
5) A broad “metals complex” rally
Gold wasn’t alone. Silver and platinum also hit records before paring gains, reinforcing the sense that investors were rotating into hard assets across the board. [11]
Why gold can rally even as stocks hit records
One of the most striking features of late 2025 is that equities and gold have both been strong. On Dec. 24, U.S. stocks ended higher in a shortened session while gold held near record territory. [12]
FXStreet framed this as a late-December regime where markets can buy growth exposure (stocks) and insurance (gold) at the same time—especially when liquidity is thin and macro uncertainty hasn’t gone away. [13]
Reuters’ longer-run reporting has also noted that a simultaneous surge in gold and equities is unusual historically, raising questions in some circles about overheating—though that doesn’t automatically mean an immediate reversal. [14]
Short-term outlook: consolidation risk is real, but the trend remains bullish
Profit-taking is already showing up
Reuters quoted market commentary describing today’s action as “chart consolidation and mild profit-taking” after record highs—exactly what traders would expect after a milestone break. [15]
Key levels traders are watching
- $4,500: the psychological “line in the sand” that bulls want to defend.
- $4,525 area: the fresh record zone that confirms upside momentum.
- $4,600: an upside target that has appeared in market commentary as a next objective if the trend continues. [16]
FXStreet’s technical read on Dec. 24 also emphasized that gold looks overbought on some indicators, implying the market may need time to cool off—even if the broader bias stays constructive. [17]
Gold forecasts: what banks and strategists are projecting for 2026
With gold up roughly 70%+ in 2025—its strongest annual performance since 1979 according to multiple reports—attention is shifting from “why is gold rising?” to “how far can this go in 2026?” [18]
Here are the major forecasts and outlook themes circulating around today’s coverage:
The “higher-for-longer in gold” camp
- Goldman Sachs: projected gold reaching $4,900 by December 2026, supported by central bank demand and the possibility of additional Fed cuts. [19]
- Major-bank ranges: Business Insider cited expectations for gold to trade in a $4,500–$4,700 zone next year, with potential upside toward $5,000 if conditions persist. [20]
- Institutional strategist survey / forecasts (Reuters roundup): Reuters reporting this month referenced forecasts such as Morgan Stanley targeting $4,500 by mid-2026, JP Morgan expecting averages above $4,600 in Q2 and above $5,000 in Q4, and Metals Focus seeing $5,000 by end-2026. [21]
- Industry expectations: The London Bullion Market Association gathering reported a view that gold could reach about $4,980 over the next 12 months (based on its conference polling). [22]
The “cooling-off / correction risk” camp
Not every forecaster believes the rally can continue at the same pace. Some outlooks highlighted in today’s coverage warn that speculative momentum can fade and that a pullback is possible—even if the longer-term thesis stays intact. [23]
What to watch next
With Christmas closures and year-end positioning dominating short-term price action, the next durable move in gold will likely hinge on a handful of macro drivers:
- Fed rate expectations and U.S. yields — any repricing of the 2026 easing path can move gold quickly. [24]
- U.S. dollar direction — continued USD softness remains a tailwind, but reversals can trigger sharp, fast corrections. [25]
- Geopolitical risk signals — headlines tied to Venezuela and other flashpoints have been an immediate catalyst for safe-haven flows. [26]
- Holiday trading conditions — with markets operating on shortened schedules, price gaps and exaggerated moves become more likely. [27]
Bottom line
At 5:01 a.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025, gold’s message was unmistakable: the market is treating bullion as a core macro asset again, not just a crisis hedge. By later in the day, prices cooled—yet remained near record territory after touching $4,525/oz and hovering around $4,480–$4,500/oz. [28]
Whether gold powers onward or pauses for a deeper pullback, today’s action reinforces the new reality of late 2025: gold is trading like a “macro headline” asset, sensitive to rates, geopolitics, and liquidity—sometimes all at once. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fxstreet.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.fxstreet.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.fxstreet.com, 18. www.businessinsider.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.businessinsider.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.thetimes.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.fxstreet.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com


