SYDNEY, 24 December 2025 — Australia’s sharemarket eased on Christmas Eve in a shortened session, with investors locking in gains after a multi-day run-up and trading volumes thinning out ahead of the holiday break. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell about 0.4% (around 33 points) to roughly 8,763, rounding out a week that still finished higher overall. [1]
Wednesday was also the last trading day before the ASX closes for Christmas Day and Boxing Day, and normal trading on 24 December ended early at 2:10pm Sydney time, a structural factor that often amplifies late-session moves when liquidity is already scarce. [2]
While much of the market softened, the day had a clear dividing line: rate-sensitive heavyweights (notably banks and parts of healthcare) pulled the index lower, while resources and gold-related stocks found support as global commodity markets pushed to fresh highs. [3]
What moved the ASX on 24 December: profit-taking, thin volumes, and “stretched” bank valuations
The tone of the session was set by a familiar pre-holiday combination: profit-taking after a rally, reduced participation, and an early close. A Reuters market wrap noted that the ASX 200 was running at roughly two-fifths of its monthly average volume, underscoring how lightly traded conditions can exaggerate price action into year-end. [4]
Financials were a key drag, with the sector down around 0.4% in the Reuters wrap, snapping a short winning run. [5] ABC’s markets coverage similarly highlighted that the big four banks—Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ—were down roughly 0.3% to 0.8% during the session, with commentary pointing to “stretched valuations” compared with other developed-market banks. [6]
That valuation conversation mattered because banks have been a pillar of 2025’s market performance. The Reuters report pointed out that the big four were up strongly year-to-date (mid-single digits to high-20% gains, depending on the bank), and quoted a Shaw and Partners adviser saying the sector looked fully priced heading into 2026. [7]
Sector split: the market fell, but miners and gold stocks attracted bids
Despite the index decline, resources once again acted as a shock absorber.
- ABC reported that every sector finished lower except mining (up about 0.1%), helped by record copper pricing. [8]
- Reuters’ wrap was even more emphatic, describing miners as the “only bright spot,” up about 0.5% and marking record highs for a third straight session in that sub-index. [9]
Either way, the directional message was consistent: metals-linked exposure outperformed a softer broader tape as investors leaned toward themes that have been defining late-2025 markets globally—hard assets, energy transition inputs, and precious-metals strength. [10]
Copper breaks above US$12,000/t; Rio Tinto hits fresh highs
Copper was front and centre. ABC reported the metal surged above US$12,000 per tonne, lifting major miners—Rio Tinto traded as high as A$148 (a record intraday level in ABC’s coverage)—while names such as Capstone Copper and IGO gained around 2%. [11]
Betashares investment strategist Tom Wickenden linked copper’s momentum to AI data centre demand and broader electrification build-out, a narrative that has increasingly shaped commodity allocation decisions into 2026. [12]
Gold equities push higher as bullion stays near records
Gold also remained a dominant macro signal. ABC noted Australia’s All Ordinaries Gold sub-index rose to record territory, and cited gains for large producers including Evolution Mining and Northern Star during the session. [13]
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, in a technical note republished by FNArena, said gold was trading around US$4,495and described the latest leg as driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations for multiple US rate cuts in 2026, adding that a break of key resistance had opened room for further upside into year-end. [14]
The Australian dollar jumps to a 14‑month high — and the RBA is part of the story
The Christmas Eve session wasn’t only about equities. The Australian dollar strengthened to around 67 US cents, which ABC described as the currency’s highest level since October 2024. [15]
ABC linked the move to a combination of:
- stronger commodity pricing (supportive for a resource-heavy export economy), and
- shifting expectations that Australian interest rates could stay higher for longer—or even rise—relative to the US. [16]
A key near-term milestone: Australia’s December-quarter inflation data due on 28 January 2026, which ABC flagged as central to the policy debate. ABC also reported markets were pricing a meaningful chance of an RBA hike at the 3 February 2026 meeting (quoted at about 28% in the ABC blog). [17]
For equities, that matters because rate expectations feed directly into bank earnings assumptions, real estate valuation models, and the relative appeal of growth stocks—a major reason the day’s sector leadership looked the way it did. [18]
Company news and standout share moves on Christmas Eve
Even with the early close, the session produced notable single-stock stories—some macro-linked, others purely corporate.
Defence and infrastructure headlines: DroneShield and Lendlease
ABC highlighted DroneShield as one of the session’s active names after it secured a $6.2 million contract for counter-drone technology for an Asia-Pacific military end customer. [19]
Lendlease also moved sharply after it won the Sydney Metro Hunter Street West Over Station Development, which includes station works and a major commercial tower development near Wynyard in Sydney’s CBD. [20]
Deal risk: Monash IVF bid withdrawn; Seven West Media merger milestone
On the downside, Monash IVF dropped after a consortium withdrew a takeover bid, according to ABC’s live coverage. [21]
ABC also noted Seven West Media rose after a court approval step in its merger process with Southern Cross Media, ahead of suspension and delisting mechanics. [22]
Winners and losers: the biggest percentage moves across the ASX300
One of the clearest snapshots of the day’s leadership came from FNArena’s automated end-of-day ranking of the top 20 percentage winners and losers in the ASX300 (filtered for liquidity). [23]
Notable percentage winners included:
- Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) +12.4%
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) +7.6%
- IperionX (IPX) +7.5%
- Boss Energy (BOE) +6.8%
- Vulcan Energy (VUL) +6.5%
- PLS Group (PLS) +6.3% [24]
Notable percentage decliners included:
- Imdex (IMD) −3.6%
- Charter Hall (CHC) −3.2%
- Bravura Solutions (BVS) −3.0%
- IDP Education (IEL) −2.8%
- Pro Medicus (PME) −2.8%
- Xero (XRO) −2.3%
- CSL (CSL) −2.4% [25]
That mix tells a broader story: resources/energy transition exposures and select cyclicals led, while expensive growth names and heavyweight healthcare lagged into year-end positioning. [26]
Forecasts and analysis published on 24 December: “Santa rally” targets and 2026 watchlists
Despite the holiday setting, analysts still used 24 December to publish forward-looking views—particularly on where the ASX could head as liquidity returns in January.
Technical outlook: ASX 200 seen pushing toward 8,850 into year-end
In a technical markets note republished by FNArena, IG’s Tony Sycamore reviewed the ASX 200’s late-2025 pattern: he referenced an all-time high around 9,115 in mid-October, a pullback low near 8,383 on 21 November, and a subsequent rebound from the 8,550/8,560 support zone. [27]
His base case: thin holiday volume could still allow a “Santa Claus rally” to extend toward an 8,850 end-of-year target, helping set up a platform to retest—and potentially break—the 9,115 record high in 2026. [28]
Broker and strategist lists: Bell Potter’s sector-by-sector picks for 2026
FNArena also published a year-ahead “best buys” style roundup on 24 December that included Bell Potter’s stock selections across multiple sectors—from listed investment companies and agriculture through to technology, healthcare, gold, lithium and defence. Names mentioned included WiseTech Global, Car Group, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Pro Medicus, Evolution Mining, Liontown, and Paladin Energy, among others. [29]
While these lists are not market forecasts in the index-level sense, they do provide a window into what at least one major broker research ecosystem is positioning around: AI-adjacent infrastructure, selective healthcare, and resources leveraged to electrification and geopolitics. [30]
Global backdrop: Wall Street hits record closes as “Santa rally” narrative builds
Australia’s Christmas Eve decline occurred alongside a notably bullish lead from the US. Reuters reported that the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on 24 December in a shortened US session, extending a multi-day rise and reinforcing the seasonal “Santa rally” narrative. [31]
That supportive offshore tone was visible in Australian pre-open sentiment, but it wasn’t enough to offset local profit-taking and sector-specific pressure—particularly on banks and healthcare—once the ASX session got underway. [32]
What to watch next when the ASX reopens after the holiday break
With Christmas and Boxing Day closures on the ASX calendar, attention now shifts to what might drive price action when full participation returns:
- RBA outlook and inflation risk: the next major local macro catalyst is Australia’s quarterly CPI on 28 January 2026, followed by the RBA’s 3 February meeting, both highlighted in ABC’s coverage as key dates for the rates narrative. [33]
- Commodities at elevated levels: copper’s breakout and gold’s strength are increasingly influencing sector leadership, supporting miners while complicating the inflation picture. [34]
- Valuations and rotation: commentary on bank valuation stretch and healthcare weakness suggests the ASX may enter 2026 with a more active debate about where “expensive defensives” end and where cyclical/resource leadership begins. [35]
- Technical levels: a widely circulated year-end framework among technical analysts is that 8,850 is a plausible magnet level if the Santa rally extends, while the 9,115 high remains the headline milestone for 2026. [36]
Australia’s stock market on 24 December 2025 ultimately delivered a very “Christmas Eve” outcome: a modest index decline, big macro cross-currents (rates, commodities, currency), and a handful of high-impact single-stock stories—all compressed into a shortened session where liquidity (and conviction) was thinner than usual.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
References
1. www.abc.net.au, 2. www.asx.com.au, 3. www.abc.net.au, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.brecorder.com, 6. www.abc.net.au, 7. www.brecorder.com, 8. www.abc.net.au, 9. www.brecorder.com, 10. www.abc.net.au, 11. www.abc.net.au, 12. www.abc.net.au, 13. www.abc.net.au, 14. fnarena.com, 15. www.abc.net.au, 16. www.abc.net.au, 17. www.abc.net.au, 18. www.abc.net.au, 19. www.abc.net.au, 20. www.abc.net.au, 21. www.abc.net.au, 22. www.abc.net.au, 23. fnarena.com, 24. fnarena.com, 25. fnarena.com, 26. fnarena.com, 27. fnarena.com, 28. fnarena.com, 29. fnarena.com, 30. fnarena.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.abc.net.au, 33. www.abc.net.au, 34. www.abc.net.au, 35. www.brecorder.com, 36. fnarena.com
