Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) heads into the post‑Christmas reopening with a familiar setup for defense investors: a holiday-thinned tape, a fresh reminder of the company’s long-cycle contract machine, and renewed scrutiny around the F‑35’s sustainment performance.
Wednesday, December 24, 2025 was a holiday-shortened session for U.S. equities, with the NYSE scheduled to close early and the market then shut entirely for Christmas Day (Dec. 25) before returning to a full session on Friday, Dec. 26. [1]
Below is what happened in LMT after the bell on Dec. 24—and the key headlines, forecasts, and risks investors should keep in view before the next market open on Dec. 26.
Lockheed Martin stock price after the Dec. 24 close
In the shortened Christmas Eve session, Lockheed Martin shares finished higher and saw only a modest after-hours move—typical for a holiday week when many desks are lightly staffed and liquidity can be patchy.
LMT at the Dec. 24 close (official close price):
- Close:$485.75, up $3.20 (+0.66%)
- Day range: roughly $484.45 to $491.18
- Volume: about 581.6K shares (vs. ~1.35M average) [2]
LMT in after-hours trading (snapshot):
- After-hours quote: around $486.00 (about +0.05%) as of the late afternoon update shown by one major data vendor [3]
The “volume vs. average” gap matters heading into Friday: holiday weeks can exaggerate price moves (in either direction) because fewer orders are needed to move the stock—especially in after-hours trading.
The broader market backdrop: records into Christmas, but Friday is the next real test
Lockheed Martin’s move on Dec. 24 came with the broader market leaning risk-on into Christmas. Reuters and the Associated Press reported U.S. stocks finishing higher, with major indices at or near record levels during the holiday-shortened session. [4]
For LMT specifically, that matters because “defense as a safe haven” sometimes lags on the strongest risk-on days, but it can also benefit if portfolio managers rotate back into cash-flowing large caps when the calendar flips and liquidity normalizes.
Today’s key Lockheed Martin headlines (Dec. 24) that investors are digesting
1) The Pentagon lifted the ceiling on a major C‑130J contract—headline value up to $25 billion
The biggest contract-related headline still echoing through trading desks on Dec. 24: the Pentagon disclosed a ceiling $10 billion contract modification tied to the C‑130J program, taking the cumulative value to $25 billion from $15 billion. [5]
What investors should know:
- The contract modification is linked to C‑130J Combined Aircraft Delivery, Development, Integration and Engineering.
- Work is tied to Lockheed Martin operations in Marietta, Georgia, with an expected completion date in 2035. [6]
- Reuters noted the update supports deliveries/services connected with international partners and Foreign Military Sales elements. [7]
Why it matters for LMT stock:
- A higher contract ceiling doesn’t automatically equal immediate revenue (these vehicles are funded over time via task orders and program flow), but it reinforces what long-term holders like about Lockheed Martin: multi-year program visibility and durable demand for transport and mission aircraft.
- It also supports the “backlog durability” narrative that tends to underpin defense valuations when macro uncertainty rises.
Several market-facing summaries and investor notes published on Dec. 24 framed the contract as a positive headline catalyst—even if near-term financial impact will depend on funding cadence and execution. [8]
2) A watchdog report put F‑35 availability back in the spotlight
Another headline investors continued to weigh into Christmas Eve: a Defense Department Office of Inspector General report, covered by Reuters, said U.S. F‑35s were available to fly only about 50% of the time in 2024, below the Pentagon’s minimum requirement cited in coverage, and flagged maintenance and accountability issues tied to sustainment arrangements. [9]
Why this matters for the stock (even on a quiet tape):
- The F‑35 remains the signature program in Lockheed’s portfolio, and sustainment performance affects customer confidence, follow-on negotiations, and—critically—margin quality in services and support work.
- Defense investors tend to tolerate “lumpy” quarter-to-quarter fundamentals in exchange for long-duration programs—but they are less tolerant of headlines that hint at execution risk, contract friction, or incentives misalignment.
This isn’t necessarily a “sell the stock” catalyst on its own, but it can cap upside enthusiasm—especially when analysts are already debating Lockheed’s medium-term cash-flow path.
3) Space: a $3.5B SDA satellite order keeps missile tracking momentum front and center
Investors also have a major space award in recent memory. Reuters reported the U.S. Space Development Agency placed an order worth about $3.5 billion across four companies—including Lockheed Martin—to build 72 satellites (18 each), part of Tranche‑3 for missile warning and tracking in low Earth orbit. [10]
A defense-focused outlet reported Lockheed’s portion at about $1.1 billion (with other awards going to Rocket Lab, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris). [11]
Why it matters heading into the next session:
- Space and missile warning/tracking are central to where Pentagon modernization dollars have been flowing.
- Investors often treat these architectures as multi-year “platforms,” meaning today’s award can imply future refresh cycles, upgrades, and follow-on tranches—assuming program execution stays on track.
4) Sikorsky angle: the Army is exploring new approaches to Black Hawk sustainment and modernization
One defense-industrial thread published on Dec. 24 that touches Lockheed via Sikorsky: reporting indicated the U.S. Army is exploring outsourcing options and industry input for maintaining and upgrading its large fleet of Black Hawk helicopters, a process that could shape future workloads for the industrial base. [12]
This is not an immediate “stock-moving” headline in the way a multi‑billion-dollar award might be—but it reinforces the idea that sustainment, modernization, and autonomy-adjacent upgrades could be growth vectors across legacy platforms that remain in service for decades.
5) “Today’s” defense-tech narrative: Lockheed tied to an Army prototype effort involving AI-powered logistics software
A defense industry brief dated Dec. 24 also referenced Lockheed Martin’s participation in an Army Next Generation Command and Control prototype effort, with collaboration involving Rune Technologies and others on AI-powered logistics software. [13]
For equity investors, this is less about immediate revenue scale and more about positioning:
- The market has been rewarding defense names perceived as aligned with faster acquisition cycles, software-defined capabilities, autonomy, and resilient networks.
- Demonstrated participation in these prototypes can help counter the bearish narrative that primes are “too tied” to big legacy platforms.
Wall Street forecasts and analyst positioning heading into Dec. 26
Analyst ratings: cautious-to-mixed, with “Hold” energy showing up in big-bank commentary
A notable analyst development this month: Barron’s reported that J.P. Morgan downgraded Lockheed Martin to “Hold” (from “Buy”), flagging concerns around future cash flow expectations, while still lifting its price target to $515. [14]
That combination—downgrade + higher price target—captures a common stance on LMT right now:
- Lockheed is widely seen as high-quality and strategically critical,
- but investors want clearer visibility on execution, sustainment performance, and cash conversion.
Price target snapshots: modest upside implied, but not a consensus “screaming buy”
Data aggregators show a wide spread in targets—typical for a stock where the bull and bear case often hinges on program execution, margin durability, and Washington policy.
Examples cited by major market-data sources include:
- A MarketBeat snapshot showing an average target in the low $500s with a wide high/low range. [15]
- Yahoo Finance showing a 1‑year target estimate around $523.95. [16]
Using the Dec. 24 close ($485.75), those kinds of targets imply single-digit percentage upside on average—not nothing, but also not the kind of implied return that typically draws aggressive momentum flows.
The next major scheduled catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings (late January)
Even though the market’s focus is on the next session (Dec. 26), Lockheed’s next major fundamental “reset” is its Q4 earnings report.
A widely circulated earnings preview published Dec. 24 indicated analysts expect Lockheed Martin to report Q4 2025 EPS around $6.33 (with the piece noting year-over-year decline comparisons), and pegged the expected timing to late January 2026. [17]
Nasdaq’s earnings page also showed an estimated earnings date of Jan. 27, 2026 (noting it may be algorithmically derived). [18]
Why this matters before Friday’s open:
- In low-volume markets, investors sometimes position early for the next “big tape event,” especially if they believe the stock’s valuation is sensitive to guidance commentary.
- Any additional headlines about the F‑35 sustainment model, fixed-price program risk, or cash-flow outlook can shift how investors handicap that January report.
What to know before the stock market opens on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025
1) Confirm the schedule: markets return for a full session after Christmas Day
The NYSE holiday calendar shows Christmas Day is a market holiday, while Dec. 24 had an early close. [19]
Reuters also reported that major U.S. exchanges planned to follow their normal schedules despite a federal-government closure directive for Dec. 24 and Dec. 26—meaning a full trading day on Dec. 26. [20]
Translation: Friday is the next real price-discovery session.
2) Expect thin liquidity early—and be careful with after-hours narratives
Because Dec. 24 trading volume was well below average for LMT, early Friday action can sometimes reflect:
- delayed portfolio rebalancing orders,
- catch-up trades from global accounts,
- and sector ETF flows rather than new fundamental information.
3) Watch Washington policy risk around contractor payouts and performance incentives
One of the biggest “overhang” themes for large defense primes lately has been debate around contractor accountability, cost overruns, and shareholder payouts. Reuters reported earlier this month that the Trump administration was preparing an executive order that could limit dividends, buybacks, and executive pay for contractors with delayed and over-budget programs, according to sources. [21]
Even without new developments on Dec. 24 itself, this theme can influence:
- how investors value “shareholder return stories,” and
- whether primes trade more like regulated contractors than free-cash-flow compounders.
4) Macro calendar is relatively light, but don’t ignore rates and risk appetite
A major reason defense stocks sometimes move “oddly” is that they sit at the intersection of:
- bond proxies (dividend + stability),
- geopolitical risk hedges,
- and industrial cyclicals (supply chains, production cadence).
For Dec. 26 specifically, the New York Fed’s economic calendar lists a Staff Nowcast update mid-day. [22]
That’s not usually a pre-market mover, but rates, inflation expectations, and index futures can still dominate the tape—especially in a holiday week when company-specific news is sparse.
5) Technical levels traders may focus on (no charts—just the levels)
Based on the Dec. 24 session range, short-term traders often anchor to:
- ~$491 as a near-term resistance area (session high zone),
- ~$484–$485 as a near-term support area (session low/close neighborhood). [23]
If LMT opens above the high end of that range on Dec. 26, it can force short-dated positioning changes; if it breaks below the low end, the “quiet holiday tape” can suddenly feel less quiet.
6) Seasonal factor: Dec. 26 has historically been strong for stocks—but it’s not a rule
MarketWatch cited research indicating Dec. 26 has historically been one of the more consistently positive days for the S&P 500 and framed it as part of the “Santa Claus rally” window. [24]
For LMT, the practical takeaway is simple: if the overall market is bid on Dec. 26, defense mega-caps often get a tailwind—even if their newsflow is neutral.
Bottom line for Lockheed Martin stock heading into Dec. 26
Lockheed Martin stock ended Dec. 24 at $485.75 and was little changed in after-hours trading, in a session defined as much by the calendar as by catalysts. [25]
The news mix investors are carrying into Friday includes:
- a C‑130J contract ceiling increase that reinforces long-duration demand and program depth, [26]
- renewed F‑35 sustainment and readiness scrutiny that can keep a lid on sentiment until the company addresses execution/accountability questions, [27]
- continued momentum in space-based missile tracking programs, [28]
- and an analyst backdrop that looks cautious-to-mixed ahead of a more consequential catalyst: late‑January earnings. [29]
For readers heading into the next open: Friday is likely to be less about “what happened in after-hours” and more about whether LMT can attract fresh post-holiday capital amid a broad market that has been pushing to records—and whether any new Washington or Pentagon headlines emerge once desks fully return.
This article is informational and reflects publicly reported information and market data as of the post-close period on Dec. 24, 2025.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.defense.gov, 6. www.defense.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.airandspaceforces.com, 12. www.ctinsider.com, 13. www.defenseone.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. finance.yahoo.com, 17. www.barchart.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.newyorkfed.org, 23. www.benzinga.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.benzinga.com, 26. www.defense.gov, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com
