Shell Plc (SHEL) Stock News on Dec. 25, 2025: Buybacks, Gulf Discovery, and 2026 Forecasts in Focus

December 25, 2025 — With U.S. and UK markets shut for Christmas Day, Shell Plc stock heads into the holiday pause with investors digesting a dense bundle of late-December headlines: a fresh U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil discovery near existing Shell infrastructure, ongoing daily buyback disclosures under a $3.5 billion program, and a pipeline of strategic and regulatory developments stretching from Germany to southern Africa.

Below is a detailed round-up of the current news, forecasts, and analyst narratives shaping Shell (NYSE: SHEL; LSE: SHEL) as of 25 December 2025.

Shell stock price today: where SHEL stands going into the holiday break

Shell’s U.S.-listed ADR closed at $72.84 on Dec. 24, 2025, down 0.31% on the session, with trading reflecting the Christmas Eve early close in the U.S. market. ^[1]

That matters because Dec. 25 brings no new official pricing—so the latest actionable “where it stands” snapshot is effectively Dec. 24’s close.

The biggest Shell stock headlines investors are weighing on Dec. 25, 2025

1) Shell keeps buybacks rolling: Dec. 24 share repurchases disclosed

Shell disclosed it bought shares for cancellation on Dec. 24, 2025, including 358,799 shares on the London Stock Exchange (VWAP £27.0785) and 309,528 shares on Euronext Amsterdam (VWAP €31.0888). The company said these purchases are part of the existing buyback programme announced on Oct. 30, 2025, with trading decisions handled independently by Merrill Lynch International. ^[2]

This isn’t a one-off “surprise buyback” headline—Shell has been publishing a steady cadence of buyback transactions—yet the mechanics still matter to the market because consistent buybacks can support per-share metrics (like EPS and free cash flow per share) and signal balance-sheet confidence.

2) Shell’s $3.5 billion buyback program runs into late January 2026

Shell’s investor materials frame the current buyback as a $3.5 billion programme launched Oct. 30, 2025, designed to reduce issued share capital, with all repurchased shares intended to be cancelled. Shell also states it intends—subject to market conditions—to complete the programme prior to its Q4 2025 results announcement, with the contract term running up to and including Jan. 30, 2026. ^[3]

Translation for stock-watchers: capital returns remain a core part of the near-term Shell equity story, and the next big “signal moment” is likely whatever Shell says about buybacks and distributions alongside Q4 results.

3) New U.S. Gulf oil discovery: Nashville well near Appomattox

In a development that reads like classic Shell (deepwater, infrastructure-led, tieback potential), partner INEOS Energy announced a new Norphlet oil discovery at the Shell-operated Nashville exploration well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (referred to by INEOS as the “Gulf of America”). INEOS said:

Shell operates with 79% working interest, INEOS holds 21%
The well was drilled more than five miles beneath the seabed
It confirmed high-quality oil in a promising deepwater formation
The discovery could potentially be tied back to the nearby Appomattox platform, which Shell operates and is jointly owned with INEOS
The well was drilled using the Deepwater Proteus rig, with further technical work underway to determine size ^[4]

Why it matters for Shell stock: tiebacks can be economically attractive because they may convert discoveries into cash flow faster and cheaper than building entirely new hubs—though appraisal, development planning, and commercial decisions still come next.

4) Shell doubles down on the U.S. Gulf: Kaikias waterflood project approved

Earlier in December, Reuters reported Shell approved a final investment decision for a waterflood project at Kaikias in the U.S. Gulf, expected to increase oil recovery by 60 million barrels of oil equivalent and extend the life of the Ursa platform, with first water injection targeted to begin in 2028. ^[5]

Taken together with the Nashville discovery news, the message to investors is pretty blunt: Shell is still investing for durability in advantaged upstream positions, particularly in deepwater, even as it manages shareholder returns and transition-era portfolio questions.

5) Germany’s Schwedt refinery stake: Shell reopens sale process

Reuters also reported Shell restarted efforts to sell its 37.5% stake in Germany’s Schwedt (PCK) refinery, reopening a data room and seeking bids, after an earlier attempt to sell the stake failed. The asset remains complicated by the refinery’s ownership structure, including a majority stake linked to sanctioned Russian state oil company Rosneft, and Germany’s ongoing measures to keep the refinery operating. ^[6]

For markets, this is less about near-term earnings and more about:

reducing geopolitical and sanctions-related complexity, and
continuing Shell’s pattern of portfolio pruning where assets don’t fit strategic or risk criteria.

6) Russia-linked corporate cleanup: Shell’s Rosneft JV situation

Adding another Russia-adjacent thread, Reuters reported in December that Shell sought to dissolve a Rosneft joint venture through which it holds a stake connected to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), according to a source. ^[7]

This is the sort of item that can sit quietly in the background—until it doesn’t. Investors typically track these developments for potential legal, governance, or asset-value implications rather than day-to-day share-price movement.

7) Audit scrutiny: UK watchdog probes EY’s Shell audit

Reuters reported the UK’s Financial Reporting Council opened an investigation into EY’s 2024 audit of Shell, focusing on the audit process and compliance issues. Shell said its 2023 and 2024 financial statements remain unchanged. ^[8]

This is important nuance for readers: the headline is about the auditor’s conduct, not necessarily a newly discovered restatement or revised Shell numbers—though governance headlines can still affect sentiment.

8) Africa exploration pipeline: Namibia drilling campaign and South Africa stake news

Shell’s frontier exploration exposure remains a live storyline. Reuters reported Shell (with QatarEnergy and Namibia’s Namcor) is preparing a new drilling campaign in PEL 39 offshore Namibia starting April 2026, after Shell previously wrote down about $400 million on an earlier discovery in the block it deemed commercially unviable. ^[9]

Separately, Reuters reported PetroSA approved a deal that would give Shell a 60% stake in Block 2C offshore South Africa, with Shell paying a signing bonus and funding drilling commitments, though the process still involves regulatory steps. ^[10]

For Shell stock, Orange Basin exposure is a high-upside / high-uncertainty narrative: exploration success can reshape long-term value, while dry holes and write-downs can do the opposite.

9) “Agentic AI” in upstream: Shell and SLB expand digital partnership

Reuters reported SLB and Shell will develop agentic AI-powered solutions intended to enhance technical decision-making and efficiency across upstream operations. ^[11]

SLB’s own press release describes ambitions to build an open data and AI infrastructure unifying subsurface, well construction and production workflows using SLB’s Lumi platform. ^[12]

This won’t move barrels tomorrow morning—but investors increasingly care about whether majors can use software and AI to squeeze more value from complex assets while controlling costs.

10) M&A talk refuses to die: BP, Galp, and Shell’s “capital allocation fork”

December’s newsflow also revived consolidation chatter across European energy:

Reuters reported Shell’s M&A chief resigned after leadership blocked an internal proposal to acquire BP, and noted UK takeover rules had imposed a time window affecting bids, with restrictions reportedly ending Dec. 26, 2025. ^[13]
Reuters also ran analysis suggesting BP’s leadership shake-up could feed ongoing merger speculation, with Shell frequently mentioned as a potential suitor in broader market talk. ^[14]
Reuters Breakingviews argued Shell faces a longer-term production “output hole,” floating Galp—and its Namibia discovery exposure—as a possible strategic fit, while acknowledging political and execution complexity. ^[15]

The key point for Shell investors: management has repeatedly positioned buybacks as a preferred use of capital versus mega-deals, but the sector’s M&A gravity is always lurking in the background when valuations diverge and reserve replacement becomes harder.

Shell dividend update: what shareholders just received

Shell’s board announced Q3 2025 dividend currency equivalents in early December, confirming the Q3 interim dividend originally announced Oct. 30, 2025 at $0.358 per ordinary share, with equivalents €0.3070 or 26.85p, payable Dec. 18, 2025 (to shareholders on the register on Nov. 14, 2025). ^[16]

Dividend reliability is a cornerstone of the Shell equity narrative—especially for income-focused investors—and is often discussed alongside buybacks as the “total shareholder return” package.

Forecasts for Shell stock: what analysts and macro calls are saying into 2026

Analyst targets: broadly positive, but not unanimous

Across widely followed consensus aggregators, Shell’s outlook is generally framed as “Buy”-tilted with a mid-single to low-double-digit implied upside—though targets vary depending on oil-price assumptions, refining margins, and LNG/trading expectations.

For example, MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month price target around $79.91 (with a high target around $91 and a low around $70 in its snapshot). ^[17]
StockAnalysis also summarizes the consensus analyst stance as broadly “Buy.” ^[18]

Oil price forecasts: a potential headwind if “lower for longer” sticks

One reason forecasts diverge is that Shell is still highly sensitive to commodity prices. Reuters reported Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline in 2026, forecasting Brent averaging about $56/bbl and WTI about $52/bbl (absent major supply shocks). ^[19]

If that macro path plays out, Shell bulls typically argue the company’s integrated model—especially LNG and trading—helps cushion the blow. Bears counter that lower crude and weaker refining margins still compress cash generation, tightening the room for both buybacks and dividends.

Strategy backdrop: Shell’s “return more, spend less” posture remains central

Shell’s strategic messaging over 2025 has leaned heavily into cash discipline and shareholder returns. Reuters reported Shell raised its shareholder distribution target to 40%–50% of cash flow from operations, trimmed planned spending, and set out ambitions including LNG sales growth and free cash flow per share growth through 2030. ^[20]

Meanwhile, Reuters reported Shell’s Q3 2025 profits fell amid lower prices, but the company still beat expectations and maintained the buyback pace—reinforcing the idea that management is prioritizing predictable capital returns. ^[21]

The investment debate around Shell stock right now

Shell’s late-2025 setup is basically a tug-of-war between cash returns today and resource renewal for tomorrow, all happening under the long shadow of the energy transition.

What supports the bull case:

A visible, ongoing $3.5B buyback programme running into late January 2026. ^[22]
Continued evidence Shell can find and potentially monetize new barrels near infrastructure (e.g., Nashville/Appomattox tieback potential). ^[23]
Deepwater project optimization (e.g., Kaikias waterflood) that can extend asset life and raise recovery. ^[24]

What fuels the bear case (or at least caution):

Macro risk: credible bank forecasts for lower oil prices in 2026 could compress cash flow. ^[25]
Portfolio complexity in Europe (Schwedt refinery situation; Russia-linked entanglements) that can drag on valuations and management bandwidth. ^[26]
Governance headlines (audit scrutiny) that may not change numbers, but can affect sentiment. ^[27]

What to watch next for Shell (SHEL) stock

With markets reopening after the holiday, investors will likely focus on:

Ongoing buyback disclosures and whether the programme remains on track to complete by Jan. 30, 2026. ^[28]
Any updates on the Nashville discovery’s size and development pathway. ^[29]
Progress on Schwedt stake sale efforts and related sanctions/trusteeship dynamics. ^[30]
More clarity on Shell’s 2026 exploration and capex posture, including Namibia drilling plans. ^[31]
Sector-level consolidation signals—especially as BP-related takeover speculation inevitably resurfaces. ^[32]