December 25, 2025 — Citigroup Inc. stock is heading into the year-end holiday stretch with something it hasn’t enjoyed in a long time: momentum and a narrative that isn’t just “please fix the plumbing.”
With U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day, the latest trade data reflects Wednesday, Dec. 24 action. Citi shares were last around $121.56, after a session that saw the stock trade roughly between $119.40 and $122.83. [1]
What’s powering the move is a very 2025 cocktail: bank-sector tailwinds (including shifting regulatory expectations), Citi-specific regulatory progress, and a string of analyst upgrades that helped turn a “perpetual turnaround” into a stock the market is willing to pay up for.
Citigroup stock price action: why investors are paying attention now
Citi has been riding a late-December surge—one widely circulated trading note described the stock as being on a six-day winning streak with cumulative gains over that run. [2]
Earlier in the week, Citi also notched a strong session that pushed it to a fresh 52-week high at the time, outperforming major bank peers on a day when the broader market was positive. [3]
The bigger story is the re-rating: Citi shares are up dramatically in 2025 (different sources cite different measurement points through December), and mainstream outlets have explicitly pointed out Citi as a standout among large U.S. banks this year. [4]
The biggest Citi headline into Dec. 25: banks surged in 2025—and Citi led
A major year-end banking sector wrap published Dec. 25 highlights that the largest U.S. banks collectively added hundreds of billions of dollars in market value in 2025, supported by a rebound in investment banking and a regulatory environment investors view as more constructive. In that same roundup, Citigroup is singled out as the top performer among the biggest banks, with an approximately 70% gain cited for 2025. [5]
That matters for Citi specifically because “macro tailwind” rallies can fade fast. The question for 2026 is whether Citi’s own fundamentals and execution can keep carrying the stock once the easiest part of the story—sentiment reversal—has already happened.
The Citi catalyst Wall Street actually cares about: regulators easing pressure
If you want the cleanest explanation for why some investors have gotten more comfortable owning Citi at a higher valuation, it’s this: regulators have begun acknowledging progress—not declaring victory, but loosening the grip.
1) The Fed closed confidential risk-control notices tied to trading
Reuters reported Dec. 17 that the Federal Reserve terminated formal notices (MRIAs) tied to Citi’s trading risk management weaknesses, according to sources familiar with the matter. The issues involved items like counterparty credit risk measurement and governance clarity across legal entities. [6]
2) The OCC removed a 2024 amendment to Citi’s 2020 consent order
On Dec. 18, Citi said the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency withdrew a 2024 amendment to a 2020 consent order. The original 2020 order remains in effect, but the removed amendment had increased oversight and included the possibility of limiting capital distributions if progress lagged. [7]
The subtle-but-important takeaway: Citi is still under major remediation obligations—but the near-term “regulatory overhang” is looking a bit less like a concrete ceiling and a bit more like a long checklist the bank is actually checking off.
Analyst sentiment: upgrades helped drive the late-2025 run
A key turning point in December came when J.P. Morgan upgraded Citi to “overweight” from “neutral” (Dec. 12), explicitly framing it as a vote of confidence in the multi-year turnaround under CEO Jane Fraser. Reuters also noted Citi’s strong 2025 performance versus peers and highlighted that Citi still traded at a valuation discount to some rivals on certain measures. [8]
In plain English: upgrades didn’t create the turnaround, but they amplified the market’s willingness to believe it.
Citi’s Mexico strategy is still a live storyline: Banamex is moving, not finished
Citi’s effort to simplify its footprint continues to run through Mexico.
On Dec. 15, Reuters reported Citi completed the sale of a 25% stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex to an entity owned by Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo and his family—another step in Citi’s broader plan to divest the Mexican retail bank. Citi also reiterated it still plans to pursue a Banamex IPO, subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals. [9]
This matters to Citi stock for two reasons:
- Execution risk: IPO timing and structure can change fast with market conditions.
- Capital and complexity: the market generally rewards Citi when it becomes simpler, more measurable, and less “conglomerate-shaped.”
Citi and BlackRock: a wealth-management partnership with real scale
Another notable Dec. 15 development: Reuters reported that the head of Citi’s investment management arm moved to BlackRock to help run a new initiative overseeing about $80 billion of Citi wealth-management client assets. The partnership involves BlackRock designing and implementing portfolio strategies while Citi continues client advice—and Citi will deploy BlackRock’s Aladdin Wealth platform internally. [10]
The strategic logic is straightforward: outsource more of the “manufacturing” of investment portfolios to a specialist, while Citi concentrates on advice, distribution, and relationships—areas where big banks argue they have durable advantages.
Earnings reality check: what Citi delivered last quarter
For fundamentals, one clean anchor is Citi’s third-quarter 2025 report.
Reuters reported that Citi beat estimates for Q3 profit, and—excluding a loss tied to selling a stake in its Mexico unit—posted adjusted EPS of $2.24 vs. $1.90 expected (LSEG data cited by Reuters). [11]
Importantly, Reuters also reported Citi’s return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) at 8.6% (and 9.7% excluding the Mexico loss), still below the bank’s stated 10%–11% ROTCE target for 2026. [12]
That’s the bull/bear battleground in one sentence: the stock is acting like Citi will hit its profitability waypoints—while the actual metric says it still has work to do.
The next major date for Citi stock: earnings in January 2026
Looking ahead, a widely followed market preview on Nasdaq.com said Citi’s next earnings report is expected January 14, 2026, with consensus expectations around $1.78 EPS and $20.99 billion in revenue for the quarter (figures cited in that report), alongside full-year consensus projections it also summarized. [13]
For a stock that has already re-rated, the market may be less forgiving of “good” and more demanding of “clean.” Investors will likely focus on:
- progress toward the 2026 profitability targets,
- credit quality and reserve trends,
- markets and investment banking revenue durability,
- and anything new on regulatory remediation timelines.
Citigroup stock forecast: price targets are now more complicated (because the stock already ran)
Here’s where it gets spicy in a very finance-nerd way: the consensus targets don’t all agree—and some imply Citi is already ahead of itself.
- MarketWatch’s compiled analyst view shows an average target price around $119.48 with an average recommendation listed as Overweight. [14]
- MarketBeat’s brokerage consensus (as published Dec. 25) describes Citi as a “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12‑month target around $114.50, while also noting a wide range of targets (with highs into the $130s). [15]
With Citi trading around $121–$122 in the latest session, that means some consensus snapshots suggest limited upside or even modest downside—not because Citi is “bad,” but because the market may have already priced in a lot of the near-term good news. [16]
Dividends and buybacks: Citi has been returning capital (and expects to keep doing so)
Citi’s shareholder-return plan has been an important pillar of the bull case—especially when the stock traded at depressed valuation multiples earlier in the turnaround.
In a July 2025 press release tied to the stress test process, Citi said its planned capital actions included raising the quarterly common dividend from $0.56 to $0.60 starting in Q3 2025 (subject to board approval) and continuing a $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program that began in January 2025. [17]
In Citi’s Q2 2025 reporting materials filed with the SEC, the bank also discussed returning capital to shareholders, including share repurchases as part of that repurchase plan. [18]
The catch (and there’s always a catch): capital return is easiest when regulators are comfortable, credit remains stable, and earnings are reliable—three variables that can change with the economic cycle.
Risks that still matter for Citigroup stock in 2026
Even with the late-2025 rally, Citi is not a “set it and forget it” bank stock. The main risks investors continue to monitor include:
Regulatory remediation isn’t “done,” just improving
The Fed closing certain notices and the OCC withdrawing an amendment are meaningful steps—but Citi is still operating under legacy consent-order obligations tied to risk management and data governance. [19]
Profitability targets are ambitious—and the stock is already behaving as if they’ll be met
Citi’s ROTCE was still below its 2026 target range in the last reported quarter cited above, even though it improved excluding certain items. [20]
Banamex: IPO timing can become a headline generator (good or bad)
Citi has reiterated IPO intent, but market windows open and shut fast. [21]
The “banks did great in 2025” story can reverse if the macro narrative flips
Year-end coverage has linked the sector’s strength to market conditions and shifts in regulatory expectations—forces that can evolve quickly. [22]
Bottom line: Citi enters 2026 with momentum—but the bar is higher now
As of Dec. 25, 2025, Citigroup stock is closing the year near multi-year highs, buoyed by:
- a powerful bank-sector re-rating,
- analyst upgrades that validated the turnaround narrative,
- concrete signs of regulatory pressure easing at the margins,
- ongoing simplification moves (including Banamex-related steps),
- and strategic partnerships aimed at boosting wealth-management efficiency.
The defining question for early 2026 won’t be “Is Citi still fixing itself?”—it will be “Can Citi turn ‘progress’ into repeatable profitability fast enough to justify a stock that already believes?” [23]
References
1. www.smartkarma.com, 2. www.trefis.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.ft.com, 5. www.ft.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.citigroup.com, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.ft.com, 23. www.reuters.com
